KS Archived Plays (all plays as promised)

no plays 2morro? ks?

yeah....doing/finishing/polishing off the write-ups now...

wayyyy more defense than I had foreseen in this game...wow...

Cincinnati @ Houston:

Cincinnati SU/ATS:  let’s look at how Marvin Lewis’s Bengals have performed vs teams over .500 this season(won/lost SU 1-7:  Baltimore 1 (L) 16-24, Baltimore 2 (L) 24-31, Houston (L) 19-20, Pittsburgh 1 (L) 17-24. Pittsburgh (L) 7-35, Tennessee (W) 24-17, SF (L) 8-13, Denver (L) 22-24.  Vs. playoff teams Cincy is 0-7.  ATS vs Playoff teams Cincy is 1-5-1. 

SU/ATS:  Marvin Lewis: Marvin Lewis is 0-2 SU in the post season.  Lewis is 0-2 ATS in the post-season.  Kubiak has not been a HC in the NFL post season, and has no record as such.

Cincy Run D:  Cincy’s run D is ranked 10^th in the league, and this seems somewhat impressive, but is it?  Up until November 27^th (vs. Cleveland) Cincy was allowing only 3.5 yards per attempt on the ground (which would be ranked in a 3 way tie for 1^st in the NFL right now), but since that game Cincy has allowed an average of 4.8 per rush attempt (which would be ranked 5^th from the bottom of NFL defenses for the season right now).  That is 1.3 more yards per attempt…why is this you ask?  Simple; Cincy’s #1 gap plugging D-lineman (Sims) went down for the season.  Going against Houston’s  2^nd ranked offense that averages 44.9% (in last 3 games) rush plays….not to mention  (and A. Foster) who averages 4.4 yards per attempt… it could be a long day for Cincy’s fragile run defense.

Houston Run D:  only New Orleans (b/c teams playing from behind), San Fran, and Atlanta faced less rush attempts than Houston did, and for good reason… Houston allowed just 96 total yards per game on the ground this season (4.1 yards per attempt).  Houston’s D-line has not incurred any major injuries in the last couple months.  Wade Phillips is back as the Defensive play caller (not counting the season Finale that was basically meaningless) , with Phillips calling the D plays, Houston only allowed 15.9 points per game.

Two rookie QB’s face off:  This is the first NFL playoff game where two true rookie QB’s will face off against each other.  There are a few notable differences in what these two will be facing:  Dalton will face the # 3 pass defense that has also allowed a league best 51.9% (up to 59% in L3, but that was either without Wade Phillips calling the plays, or it was in a game that was meaningless)  completion percentage.  TJ Yates will face the NFL’s #9  pass defense, who has allowed 59.18 (up to 63% in L3).  As far as QB efficiency goes, I know of no better bench marking system than standard QB rating; which both QB’s are dead even (Yates 80.7 vs. Dalton’s 80.4), though you could make an argument that Yates faced rougher Defenses (4 of his 6 games were vs top 20 defenses, and 3 of those 6 were top 12 overall defenses).  The big difference is the opposition these two rookies are going to face.  Dalton is facing basically one of the (if not the) best defenses that the NFL has to offer.

Strategies:  Marvin Lewis is going to be forced to pass because his run game is going to be stagnant.  Houston will stack the box to force Dalton to try to beat Houston in the air. 

Dalton Vs. top 10 passing  defenses:  Dalton is 3-5 SU vs top 10 pass D’s (disclaimer:  the 3 wins that Cincy has vs these top 10 pass D’s were the 29^th, and 32^nd ranked offense’s)  Vs teams with top 15 offenses AND top 10 pass D’s (Pitt x 2, Balt x 2, and Houston, Cincy is 0-5 SU, and 0-4-1 ATS.. losing vs the spread in these games by a total of 32.5 pts).

Houston @ home:  I am not counting the last 3 games of Houston’s defense due to 1) not having Phillips to call plays in 2 games, and, 2)  the last game being meaningless.  @ Home Houston was 5-1 ATS.

Cincy away:  Cincy away was 5-3 ATS, but vs Playoff teams on the road they are 0-3 ATS.

Squares and Sharps:  Squares are surprisingly favoring the Bengals (slightly @ 53.72%), yet the line opened Cincy +3, and has improved for Cincy backers to +4.  Either Vegas is baiting the Cincy backers, or Sharp money is pulling the line.  My guess is that it is a combination of the 2.

 

Summary:  This game is probably the best money maker of the weekend.  The basic stats are what Joe-Public views and considers, and the basic stats will point to a closely matched contest (i.e. Cincy with a top tier run D, and strong ATS—overall and away.  The last game was a 1 pt game that Houston had to come back on the last drive to win—with Cincy ahead the whole game to that point.  The deeper reasoning (Cincy’s much weaker D than shows due to season stats vs recent stats).  Marvin Lewis is the quintessential post season choke artist, and Houston’s last 3 games (one of which with Monday night exposure losing to Colts but without Wade Phillips defensive prowess calling plays).  All of these facts/stats/trends serve as an advantage over the betting public.   Cincy appears to be quality in the total points allowed arena as well, but they only played 4 games this season vs teams in the top 20 of points scored (the Jekyl-Hyde Bills scored 20, the Ravens scored 31, Houston scored 20, and Baltimore scored only 24 in a game that Baltimore knew was meaningless to them @ gametime ). 

Final Score:

Houston 27  Cincy 16

Houston -4  for 4.4 Units to win 4 Units

KS TIME IS BACK ...GO TEXANS ..GL 

 Hi Vuabip00, and I don't think Texans are going to be sweating this for a moment after the 1st period.... let's get it 

Texans also had 4 fumbles losing 3 of them and one int vs bengals. Bengals had 2 fumbles and lost both.

Texans also missed 1 FG in that game, so they still won and final score could def been different without the lost turnovers.

Ravens and ray rice also gashed bengal run D for some big runs last game.

finishing the contest KS?

 nope.. I was mathematically eliminated... it is all over.. never do another one either.  That cost me a lot of $ in lost focus.... live and learn....GL  

 good points Sir 

Just realized I did not post my 1st half play: (so I am using current line)

Sorry I missed your 1st Half play . Thanks Andy Dalton ! LOL .

yeah.. I lucked out on the pick 6--but I was due for a good shake after being on the right side on multiple games and still losing over the last couple weeks....lol... I will take the lucky break 

No time for a write-up on this one my friends:

ks what do think about the over and under?

KS so you do like the lions after all...Gl man 

162 yards rushing to 62 with 5 mins to go; as stated, Houston's D dominated, and Cincy could not stop the run...... on to the next game boys 

 yeah.... though the Lions are the quintessential Jekyl-Hyde team, they statistically have the ability to stay within 10.5.. a side note is that NO is 9-1 ATS (L10) and Detroit is 3-6-1 (L10)....  rarely do teams cover as a favorite that long and I am playing them to not do it today....BoL 

LIONS just don't do it man 

 

Hammer will come down hard tonight

KS, i know man. I call it superstitious/coin toss theory. heads covering 10 times ill bet tails next one. it is kinda ridiculous but still a little important thing. sports is half stats. besides this crazy reasoning the actual facts of this game i also heavily favor the lions. defensive guys coming back. they played saints already. overreaction to the GB game. 

Im watching this game from the sidelines....scared of the moose come down the hill w us all! 

good luck all!

GREAT CALL ON THE TEXANS 

 some good points buddy...I ranked the Saints strength of schedule @ 16th (not last), but that is just me.  The 'coin toss' analogy is a little more random than Covering chalk; the linesmakers have control over pt spreads, and they don't want to allow any group of backers the ability to 'tee off' on them for any length of time... so when I see that kind of dominance ATS coupled with suspicious line movements... I have to jump on it (at least lightly)..... BoL 2 us buddy...

well at least one of us will be cashing a ticket at the window tonight....