Like I said yesterday in the CFB forum , I stopped posting because, I couldn’t go on a winning streak posting plays here. Posted the Canes yesterday on the CFB on 3 separate plays and swept the board for almost 4 dimes. Canes outright win. 6-3 + 6,862.00 on the CFB forum but, 2-4 - 6,600.00 here. Let’s try and get almost half of that back today by taking JAX + 3.5. This spread seems warranted to most people because Denver are on a 11 game winning streak and haven’t lost at home all year long. Teams going for their 12th win since 1990 are on a 14-36-2 ATS trend. My numbers have the Jaguars winning outright. If Denver does win, they win by 3 pts tops. Every where I look , the Jaguars have played the much tougher schedule than Denver. JAX SOS is anywhere between 10th & 14th , whereas Denver’s is right around 24th and 28th. Big difference there. DVOA’s has JAX’s Defense at + 14.0% and Denver’s @ 15.7 %. Slight edge to Denver. DVOA’s offensive metrics have JAX’s off at + 0.8 % , compared to Denver’s offense @ + 3.7 % respectfully But special teams are extremely important in a high stakes game like this. DVOA ranks JAX’ ST @ + 4.3 % & Denver’s @ a + 1.6 % , 5th & 14th respectfully. But DVOA, who has the best and most accurate metrics of them all have the SOS rankings @ JAX + 2.0 % # 10 and Denver’s - 6.8 % ranked 29th, this is where you’ll see the difference in the better team. FPI rankings: JAX are 4th in efficiency, Denver are 5th. JAX have the best rush defense in the league. They give up only 86.6 on average, they actually only give up 75.6 away from home, whereas Denver gives up 86.0 @ home. ATS #’s JAX 9-5 ATS overall, Denver 6-8 ATS overall. Penalties are important in a every game played. JAX averages ( 15.15 ) overall, Denver ( 15.79 ) . This would’ve been a larger play if the Jaguars had a better offensive line. They only rank 23rd, compared to Denver ranking in @ 7th , big difference there, because of Denver’s pass rush. I like JAX’s HC though, he knows Denver’s pass rush is elite, but are they elite based on their weak SOS played. I’m willing to pay to see it. Ever since J. Meyers got acquired, JAX has taken their game to another level. JAX are 3rd nationally in drop back success rate, so if Denver wants to blitz , Denver will sacrifice its DB’s being left on a island. JAX are 4-4 ATS as a dog or pick , whereas the Broncos are 2-7 ATS as faves. Going JAX + 3.5 3,450/3,000 & JAX + 3.5 452/400. Two different books. GL
on your play I'm also on it 
Hot Forum Topics
