Claw, you are usually a source of intelligent insight in this forum.
But with comments like this, you don't do yourself any favors. I will stand up against your models every day of the week given I've seen every Jets game and studied them as a local every day for the last 25 years.
Geno went 8-8 throwing 12 TD's and 21 INT's last year. The Jets went .500 with him a facilitator.
It doesn't matter if he remains as one of the worst QB's in the league on paper. A very average Jets team was 8-8 with him. Remember, he lead the Jets to victory over the Saints at home and won a road game in the last game of the season against the Fins, who were fighting for their lives for the final playoff spot. Those situations are not to be given a quick handwave.
He has progressed. He is no longer green and can be trusted to be more dependable than last year. Is he in a better spot than week 1 last year against TB? Of course.
Now I've said this a million times with my post and I'll say it again.
We only need to trust him for THIS ONE GAME, nothing more.
I've had to say this with the Knicks time and time again because posters simply didn't understand, that as bad as they were, they could be trusted in certain situations. It's called situational betting.
This is one of those situations. For as much as you dish on Geno, what has the other QB behind center on the Raiders proven, and what will he prove flying across the country for his first NFL start where the Raiders are woeful?
Furthermore, do your models fade the ML too? Because that is what I am playing. I am NOT laying the points.
I'll book every bet you have with any model you trust if that model says take the Raiders ML here as a 'clear fade' of the Jets (which it couldn't possibly do since it has absolutely zero regular season information on Carr).
Lastly, this isn't just about Geno. I have several other bullets in the OP to support my pick. That was ONE of them and I specifically noted it since bettors get very worried about Geno.
Anyhow, fade away as you said you would. It only helps my ML.
Fantastic writeup Scal. Remember last year's NFL opener when you called the Jets to win as a dog against the Bucs and sure enough it came through as a winner. I was thinking taking the Steelers as my first survivor pick but I just might look at taking the Jets based on you're strong analysis. 
Also like the Lions on MNF too. 
BOL this year my friend always look forward to you're insight.
Thanks for remembering that Bucs game. You and I clearly are the only ones.
I have the Jets as my survivor pick this week which isn't a bad move given they won't be able to be chosen in the next 6 weeks in an way/shape/form.
I am high on the Raps this year. I'm thinking their opening line will be 45/46 wins and I'm already loving the over. Any thoughts. All the key pieces stayed right where they should which very few teams, if any can say.
Thanks!
That's no unsound reasoning on the under as you stated it. Just know the Jets are bound to give up a huge play or two in this game. The corners just won't keep up the whole game.
I want to say something about ML parlays and teasers.
These lines are very sharp, the sharpest in the business as the NFL is the books biggest moneymaker.
Adjusting them in your favor with ML parlays and teasers has to come into play more often than you think as the books get wiser and more sophisticated each year.
The saying has always been "Same old Jets".
It really should be 'same old Raiders' as they epitomize incompetence.
Established in 1995,
What a shame...
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