It's finally here. Week 1 with the team I know as good as the Knicks: The New York Jets. WRITE-UP!

2013-2014 NBA season record: 20-11 (65%)

Bets involving the Knicks: 8-2 (80%)

2013 NFL season: 7-4 (64%)

Bets involving the 2013 Jets: 4-1 (80%)

I debated producing a very long write-up for this game. I can assure you I have one.

But I'm going to give it to you straight, quick and dirty with the main points (I have a dozen and can type for days).

The Jets are going to beat the Raiders on Sunday.

What are the reasons?

First the bad. Then the good.

The bad.

1. The Jets cornerback situation is the worst I have ever seen at such a position.

Their two starters are injured. They signed no one of worth in the offseason. Their backups are injured. One of their backups who should have started went AWOL and was cut.

That leaves us with Antonio Allen and Darrin Walls.

Antonio Allen has never started at corner in his career, is still very young and was basically an emergency plug-in just to have someone on a receiver so they could play the Bengals. Worse, he was concussed that game.

Now he's starting. How did he do against the Bengals? Dalton went 8-8 for 140 and 1 TD. The Jets would have lost by 40 if he played the entire game.

Darius Walls is strictly a backup and now he's starting. He's started 4 games in his career. He's not full of any real talent and will be thrust into this position in Week 1.

Why is this so unsettling? Because all of Rex's blitz packages rely on shutdown and/or competent corners of which the Jets now have none.

This is a problem. Carr will go right after Allen and you will see some big plays given up.

Now onto the good.

2. The Jets front 7

This D-line is world class. They will harass Carr all day, will pressure him and will take him down (and hopefully force fumbles). Wilkerson, Richardson, Pace are a dream for a D Rex has groomed effectively.

If you can't cover receivers, having these 7 up front is a welcome reprieve to make up for the inadequacy behind them.

3. Rex vs. Rookie QB's

He's 7-1 and he knows how to make them look awful. Carr is getting his first start here. It was only to the Jets benefit that he was named so early so the Jets and Rex could gameplan for him.  The only rookie QB to beat Rex? Russell Wilson.

4. Geno's progression

Let's look at week 1 last year.

Geno had never made an NFL start, was up against a better Tampa Bay team, and was not even certain he'd start another game. He won that game on a last second field goal.

Now he's confident, has a season under his belt, has rightly been named the starter over Vick (who has smartly conceded the #1 spot to him publicly) and is ready to prove himself.

Having the Raiders handed to you in Week 1 vs. a rookie QB? You couldn't have asked for a better spot to win.

4. Geno will be better because his RB's are very good

An already stout running back core of Powell and Ivory got better with the addition of Chris Johnson. With Johnson taking the load, you will see how good Ivory is given he is a 3rd down back who can explode for a needed 2 or 3. Powell is an added bonus. Getting CJ2K for peanuts was a tremendous offseason move.

5. It's only week 1. But this is a must win already and Rex knows it (and his job is already at stake).

If the Jets lose this game, you can fold up shop right now.

They have no true starting corners and who awaits them after the layup that is the Raiders? 

@Packers (you don't think their ticked off after that Seattle game?)

Bears

Lions

@Chargers

Broncos

@Patriots

That's as bad as it gets when you are looking for passing offenses that won't skewer your most glaring deficiency.

So bad is this schedule, I had the Jets OVER 7 wins this year and had a huge write-up, but I will not post it because of the cornerback situation. While they still may get to 7 or 8, it could get ugly very quickly if this CB situation doesn't get better fast. If it does get better, they will get to 8. They went 8-8 last year with a rookie QB who had his job teetering on the line the entire year. If the CB situation does not improve, forget it. 7 won't even be attainable.

The time to win is now. You don't beat the Raiders at home and you have to go to angry GB next week and then face a murderer's row of QB's, you are done.

So here's the bet. I simply can't lay points given the Jets CB situation. Carr is competent given what I've seen the preseason and the Raiders secondary may very well get some INT's against Geno who still must learn to stop staring down receivers. The game could be close. But in the end, the Jets will not lose to Carr and the awful Raiders who do atrocious on the East Coast.

The Raiders have lost a whopping THIRTEEN STRAIGHT times on East Coast trips by an average of 15 points a game:

Dec. 8, 2013: Jets 37, Raiders 27
Nov. 10, 2013: Giants 24, Raiders 20
Sept. 8, 2013: Colts 21, Raiders 17
Dec. 23, 2012: Panthers 17, Raiders 6
Nov. 25, 2012: Bengals 34, Raiders 10
Nov. 11, 2012: Ravens 55, Raiders 10
Oct. 14, 2012: Falcons 23, Raiders 20
Sept. 16, 2012: Dolphins 35, Raiders 13
Dec. 4, 2011: Dolphins 34, Raiders 14
Sept. 18, 2011: Bills 38, Raiders 35
Dec. 12, 2010: Jaguars 38, Raiders 31
Nov. 21, 2010: Steelers 35, Raiders 3
Dec. 27, 2009: Browns 23, Raiders 9

The incompetence of this franchise spans many years and is quite relevant, especially on these East Coast trips which they have no answer for.

So the first bet is the Jets ML (-235 at 5 Dimes). They will win and I don't feel comfortable laying anything right now to anyone given the corner issues.

But we have a solution. Another ML.

It deals with the other NY team.

Take the Lions ML (-270 at 5 Dimes) over the Giants.

It's very simple. The Giants have instituted a West Coast offense and Eli looks completely befuddled.

Their 5-0 preseason record is among the most misleading preseason records in the history of the NFL.

Eli has been completely inept: 19/37 (51%), 188 yards and 1 TD.

Here's the problem. Most of those yards came on one drive against the cornerless Jets in one series. Eli was flat out bad and most of the time, very confused.

It's only preseason you say? Well Coughlin continually said he wanted to see more progress from Eli and his first team offense game after game after game. Did he get it? No.

He didn't complete a pass against the Steelers (this was the first time this ever happened preseason or regular season).

He had zero yards vs. the Pats.

Eli was so bad, the Giants didn't even want him on the field. If not for the backups, this team would have went 0-5 with the worst preseason imaginable. Instead they won every game which brings this ML and spread down just a notch to our benefit.

The O-Line fore the Giants is also a total mess.

You can look at this one of two ways:

 Optimist: The Giants were saving Eli and hiding the playbook.

Pessimist: He is very uncomfortable with this West Coast offense.

Given Coughlin's slightly red-faced postgame press conferences after 5 WINS when he spoke about Eli, it is almost certainly the latter.

Don't forget, the guy who brought the WC offense and who will be calling is also a rookie Offensive Coordinator: Bob McAdoo.

But the real clinchers for me are this:

The Lions have a premier pass rush that will make Eli even more uncomfortable. Because of this the Giants will run the ball most of the game, eat up clock and keep it close. But since we are playing the ML, we don't care.

Secondly, and this is key, the game is on Monday Night Football.

Is it an extra day to prepare/gameplan? Yes.

But I can assure you Eli would much rather make his uncomfortable debut on a lazy Sunday without national TV coverage with ESPN pounding this new  West Coast offense issue into the group, psychologically rattling Eli even more.

Are the Lions known to fu** up games like this? Hell yes. But like the Jets facing a rookie QB at home, this is a 'silver platter' game for the Lions and they will be solid enough to bring it home.

So those are the picks and you'll get better than standard -110 juice but slightly less than 1 to 1. Still, no points to worry about when taking two favorites and one of these two games should be close. There is no reason to lay 10.5 pts between two games in Week 1. So the ML it is which makes me much more comfortable.

The picks:

JETS -235 ML PARLAY with   LIONS -270 ML 

Quote Originally Posted by GotNYCinme:

Good stuff.

I am in NYC and I couldn't agree more on both.

You know where it's at with these two teams given your city of residence. 

Good to hear coming from you. Wish I knew andarmac was back. I didn't see his Hawks play. He didn't make a single post last year. At least I didn't see one. You were in his threads posting/debating every week before that.

Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:

the situation on D for my Raiders is almost a mirror reflection of the Jets. Very good D line with below average secondary coverage. Very good at stacking the box but give up way too many big plays through the air. I am a huge fan of  Carr and think he can be really special. I am not sold on Geno. I just don't see this guy being a consistent NFL QB. When I watch him I just don't see the IT factor in him. I do agree however this is a tough spot to back the Raiders given their east coast trip history and a rookie making his first start. However I don't feel like this is going to be a "layup" game as you describe. Not sold on Jets offensively and if those CB's of yours let the Raiders get into a groove they are going to get CARRved up

Not betting this game so BOL to you

As much as you dislike Geno (and Jet fans don't trust him), he does have a full year under his belt.

It was incredibly tough to back him getting 3 last year vs. the Bucs.

But a ML vs. a rookie QB that Rex simply won't allow to beat him?

I'll take that and then look for Eli to fail. Leave the pts on the table in week 1 and go ML. It's a solid spot for the Jets given their schedule ahead.

It pays reduced juice at about -105 with the parlay.

All you have to care about is this if you are unconvinced by the write-up: will it win?

I say yes or I wouldn't have written it up at 2am.

It never ends...even with the passing of Al...

Still giving a lot of thought to the Pats game... Nowhere near as confident  you in them (remember game 1 last year vs. the Bills. The awful Bills should have beat them).

Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:

Not sure what your write up said , but Jets host a weak west coast team, early game, and they are starting a rookie QB week 1.  That's enough for me to like the Jets ML.  I know the Jets aren't great,  but I still think they are a step or two ahead of the Raiders.

As far as the Giants @ Lions.  Yeah, I like the play.  Giants seem to be out of sorts on offense, but I can't play it.  Detroit has a history of just laying eggs sometimes.  This one will be a great game to observe for me.  Seems the public perception on the Giants is way down, and everyone is just handing the Eagles the division title. Not sure it's going to go down that way.

For the record (as if anyone cares) I took the Jets in one of my Survivor pools to win, and I have the Lions for 7 in my confidence pool (16 to 1).  

BOL..............

Jets as a survivor pick is a solid pick. You absolutely won't be able to use them in the next 6 weeks (although the back end of their schedule is very light).

Quote Originally Posted by warcameagle56:

Yeah,your Portland -Phnx work beater got me for about 6dimes.

Phoenix was projected to win 20 games. No one, and I mean NO ONE thought they could have had anywhere near the season they had. I went 66% after that pick in the NBA so I'm not sure why you keep bringing it up. I know you read the others, or most of them.

Quote Originally Posted by JohnAntonio:

Hey Scal, feel like I haven't heard from you in ages. I tailed your nba and nhl finals picks. I also won on Germany for the WC. I am actually Figgygetit and have posted to you several times, but, for some reason, I was suddenly not allowed to make posts anymore. I didn't abuse any forum members. I think I probably cursed one too many times about some of the bums I've been betting on is baseball. anyway, I can't wait for your contribution to the nfl season. In regards to this parlay pick, should we be betting to win one unit or more, or proceed more cautiously with this one? BOL and I shall be riding every one of plays all season.

Of course I remember ya! Great that you actually laid those bets and got paid (as many here say congrats but never play the pick).

This isn't the Kings or Spurs (or even Germany which was much shakier).

But it still is solid. I had an entire offseason to cap it and would be laying the points with the Jets if only they had healthy starting CB's.

But I absolutely can't see the Jets laying an egg here.

Not saying one of the two won't be tight but the second game, on a Monday Night, on the opening Monday Night of the year? After the Seahawks just got a 16 TV rating on Thursday NF?

The rating for that game will be to the moon.

I think the Giants, aside from all eyes and all the added pressure of opening the season with a new offense on MNF, will be very conservative and lean on their running game which will be effective.

There is just too much on the Lions side not to win this one.

So ML parlay it is.

Fantastic writeup Scal. Remember last year's NFL opener when you called the Jets to win as a dog against the Bucs and sure enough it came through as a winner. I was thinking taking the Steelers as my first survivor pick but I just might look at taking the Jets based on you're strong analysis.

Also like the Lions on MNF too.

BOL this year my friend always look forward to you're insight.