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It was all a facade

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Posted: #1
As I sit here in my living room, tripping balls, wondering how any person in his right mind would not slam the steelers at home, getting bell back, in primetime and off a big loss......

i realized that it was all a facade. the books have gotten to me. the numbers, the angles, the perceptions, it was all just a giant facade. 

they've confused to the point where i would back alex smith on the road against big ben and the best wideout in the NFL, mr. brown. 

i always think ive figured out how to beat the books, but as soon as i do it all comes crashing back to me, an online ticket for the Chiefs juiced to -115 +4.0. 

there was a post i saw earlier today calling pitt a "no-brainer." i was going to post in jest that, it did, indeed, require no brain to actually pick PITT in this spot, but why did i not do it? 

why did i do this "fake" sharp stuff i did, like i did with tampa bay earlier today? 

well, because thats how i won on BUF. what kind of lunatic bets against NE at Gillette, under the watchful eye of Master Kraft himself, no matter whose at QB right?

scalabrine, you are a genius in your handicapping views. I should just slammed BUF ML, called it a day and watched the rest of the games without having the possessed interest that only the most fanatical fan would have when every normal person has turned off the game for lack of interest in its eventual outcome. 


 
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Posted: #2
Yeah pretty much ... 
 
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Posted: #3
ESPN experts and such don't help either 
 
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Posted: #4
i cannot tolerate the psychological mind "f" that comes from such wild swings in finances. 

i dont think i do it to make money. i think if im honest i just like the high i get from winning. from the invincible feeling you get when you see your team's RB rumbling off huge gashers, blowing up defensive backs. 

im not an investor. im a degenerate action junkie. 
 
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Posted: #5
I just do it to make money and have great fun at same time... I watched and played sports all my life... It's my hobby so if I can make money doing my hobby that's best! 
 
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Posted: #6
Take ESPN and sports talk radio shows with a grain of salt.  Most of the time they have producer-created talking points they like to blabber about or use to stir controversy.  They have no better insight than anyone else here or at other sites. Watch the games, do your research, manage your bets with discipline and have fun with it.   
Let's go Darwin
 
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Posted: #7
The paranoia won't get you anywhere good...
 
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Posted: #8
I loved this spot for the Steelers because the best time to take a good team is after an embarrassing outing.
And last week the Steelers put up their worst effort in years. They could hardly wait to get back out there.
That's just my .02.
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by fitchris562:

I loved this spot for the Steelers because the best time to take a good team is after an embarrassing outing.
And last week the Steelers put up their worst effort in years. They could hardly wait to get back out there.
That's just my .02.

Very true. gotta see the trends.. 
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by dcp1985:

The paranoia won't get you anywhere good...


It might get him to ignore the outside noise and bet his own on paper handicappin. thought that might be good or bad.
 
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Posted: #11
Common sense is not so common. Some weeks it just comes down to picking the better team on paper, other weeks it comes down to using absolutely no common sense. If it was that easy everyone would make money with sports betting.
 
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Posted: #12

yo @anaheimRX,

Interesting post. Just wanted to throw my 2 cents in.

Being from Australia, I bet on a lot of competitions unique to here (eg local basketball, soccer, rugby). I've found that in those competitions, which are certainly less media-proliferated than the NFL, the lines don't leave you scratching your head anywhere near as much.

Without meaning to sound like too much of a conspiracy theorist, I tend to agree with your views - Vegas uses the media to its advantage and knows what the 'average joe' is thinking. Spreads are adjusted accordingly, without necessarily being objective indicators. Our job is to "see behind the facade" and make an objective comparison between Team A's strength vs Team B on any given Sunday, compare that with the set spread, and bet accordingly.

Easier said than done, of course. Today was a good example - Minny closed as 3.5 point home faves, after 3 impressive wins and one of the best defenses in the league right now. NYG were 2-1 playing sub-par opposition (and defense) and barely scraped those wins out.

In my view, laying the points was justified on this occasion – all this talk of “regressing to the mean” is pointless unless you know WHEN the regression will occur. Minny is rolling right now, they have a huge presence at home and are simply a better team than NYG right now. No reason to think that regression would occur this game and those who objectively saw NYG for what they were (ie, not a great team) were rewarded accordingly.


-The Serb.


 
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Posted: #13
Not many have excelled in being able to play both sides of the fence.

In other words 
Week 4 was a horrible week for sharp bettors

The Previous 3 weeks were fair for the sharps.

2 ways to go about this in my opinion
If you want to bet sharp 
Continue to bet sharp

If you want to bet public 
Continue to bet Public

As long as you maintain money management 
You will not get destroyed.

I have finally come to the conclusion 
that Sharp Bets hit as frequent as Public bets or square bets.

The real art I guess would be learning to recognize when to bet public and when to bet square
I am dedicating this season to doing that.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by serballin:



In my view, laying the points was justified on this occasion – all this talk of “regressing to the mean” is pointless unless you know WHEN the regression will occur. Minny is rolling right now, they have a huge presence at home and are simply a better team than NYG right now. No reason to think that regression would occur this game and those who objectively saw NYG for what they were (ie, not a great team) were rewarded accordingly.


-The Serb.



using regression this early in the season is ridiculous 
After week 10 
If a team is 7-2 ATS or better
then you can start betting against those teams in that category and you will do well last 6 weeks of the year

Same as Betting on those teams that are 2-7 ATS
you will do well

Once again
Money management will be key
as you will be flat betting
and if it doesnt go all that well
you dont get butchered
 
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Posted: #15
Teams above 76% winning percentage after week 9 have been 301-304 against the spread versus a team not above 76%, so playing against those teams have not gotten you to the pay window.

However, playing on teams with less than a 23% winning percentage after week 9, playing against an opponent greater than 23% have a record of 316-274 (53.8%) so that idea is valid. 
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by serballin:


yo @anaheimRX,

Interesting post. Just wanted to throw my 2 cents in.

Being from Australia, I bet on a lot of competitions unique to here (eg local basketball, soccer, rugby). I've found that in those competitions, which are certainly less media-proliferated than the NFL, the lines don't leave you scratching your head anywhere near as much.

Without meaning to sound like too much of a conspiracy theorist, I tend to agree with your views - Vegas uses the media to its advantage and knows what the 'average joe' is thinking. Spreads are adjusted accordingly, without necessarily being objective indicators. Our job is to "see behind the facade" and make an objective comparison between Team A's strength vs Team B on any given Sunday, compare that with the set spread, and bet accordingly.

Easier said than done, of course. Today was a good example - Minny closed as 3.5 point home faves, after 3 impressive wins and one of the best defenses in the league right now. NYG were 2-1 playing sub-par opposition (and defense) and barely scraped those wins out.

In my view, laying the points was justified on this occasion – all this talk of “regressing to the mean” is pointless unless you know WHEN the regression will occur. Minny is rolling right now, they have a huge presence at home and are simply a better team than NYG right now. No reason to think that regression would occur this game and those who objectively saw NYG for what they were (ie, not a great team) were rewarded accordingly.


-The Serb.



Excellent post!
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by anaheimRX:

As I sit here in my living room, tripping balls, wondering how any person in his right mind would not slam the steelers at home, getting bell back, in primetime and off a big loss......

i realized that it was all a facade. the books have gotten to me. the numbers, the angles, the perceptions, it was all just a giant facade. 

they've confused to the point where i would back alex smith on the road against big ben and the best wideout in the NFL, mr. brown. 

i always think ive figured out how to beat the books, but as soon as i do it all comes crashing back to me, an online ticket for the Chiefs juiced to -115 +4.0. 

there was a post i saw earlier today calling pitt a "no-brainer." i was going to post in jest that, it did, indeed, require no brain to actually pick PITT in this spot, but why did i not do it? 

why did i do this "fake" sharp stuff i did, like i did with tampa bay earlier today? 

well, because thats how i won on BUF. what kind of lunatic bets against NE at Gillette, under the watchful eye of Master Kraft himself, no matter whose at QB right?

scalabrine, you are a genius in your handicapping views. I should just slammed BUF ML, called it a day and watched the rest of the games without having the possessed interest that only the most fanatical fan would have when every normal person has turned off the game for lack of interest in its eventual outcome. 



You dont take LSD while you make sports wagers, do you? If so, it might be ill-advised. Unless, of course, you are really so mind-fucked that you absolutely cannot make a pick. Then take a couple tabs, throw on some late Beatles record or Jimi or Dead and you will probably go on the heater of your life!!
 
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Posted: #18
Anything can happen in a game.  If Minny muffed the punt and not the Giants and the Giants got an early lead, they could easily have won the game by 14.  The Giants also had a couple of key guys injured if I recall.
 
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Posted: #19
thank you guys for chiming in. i was kind of afraid everyone would think i was a nut job and ignore me. 

it isn't the analysts or media that trips me up, its the public betting %s and amount wagered. my brain just can't accept that these big public sides can win. 

let me try and develop my theory of NFL handicapping further: 

my basic strategy is to fade the public. i like siding with the books. i find comfort in knowing that my money is on the same side as the sharpest guys in the world, the dudes at the books who set the lines. 

ill look at public % bets, but lately i have been using the consensus from another sports betting site that i will leave unnamed, which shows the actual amount wagered on each side. 

of course, now that i think about it, i have no way to know if this data is true, and it seems pretty far fetched that the books would actually release this information. if they are indeed true, i dont think it represents all the money wagered at every book of course, but its a big enough sample size to see the discrepancies in wagering $ on each team. 

almost every team getting big, lopsided money on Sunday lost except for Denver, according to the consensus. 

TEN got slammed, NE of course got slammed, DEN got slammed, PIT got slammed, but not till pretty late, and for some reason NYG were getting hit hard starting very early in the week. 

all the money was on PIT in the sun nite game. i estimate it to have been around $200K on KC vs. $4 million on PIT. 

i have to believe that the books knew PIT would easily cover. there was about a 1% chance that KC could cover the +4 or +5. 

so if the numbers were all right, were the books willing to take that gamble, that 1% gamble that they could basically clean house on all the public PITT money? 

i believe thats what happened on NE vs. BUF. i believe it was less than $100K on BUF and $3-5 million on NE. 

i bet KC because i refused to believe that the books would just give away millions of dollars. 

had they made so much money earlier in the day that decided, hey, screw it, lets just gamble big and see what happens? i can't believe that. they want to make money. why would they not take all the money they can on every game? 

another thing i couldnt understand was the huge money coming in the NYG starting early in the week. the contrarian in me felt like maybe these bettors knew something i didnt, that MIN was due for a loss or letdown. 

i could not accept the fact that the public is THAT stupid, that they would bet the NYG on the road +4 vs. an undefeated Vikings team at one of the toughest road venues to play with a swarming Mike Zimmer defense. 

and now again im torn on AZ vs. SF. i instantly see that game and think primetime dog, automatic. but what if AZ comes in and steamrolls them? i will feel so stupid. 

it HAS to be a setup. they know everyone is going to fade SF, no matter how mediocre AZ has looked most of this season. 

 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by anaheimRX:

As I sit here in my living room, tripping balls, wondering how any person in his right mind would not slam the steelers at home, getting bell back, in primetime and off a big loss......

i realized that it was all a facade. the books have gotten to me. the numbers, the angles, the perceptions, it was all just a giant facade. 

they've confused to the point where i would back alex smith on the road against big ben and the best wideout in the NFL, mr. brown. 

i always think ive figured out how to beat the books, but as soon as i do it all comes crashing back to me, an online ticket for the Chiefs juiced to -115 +4.0. 

there was a post i saw earlier today calling pitt a "no-brainer." i was going to post in jest that, it did, indeed, require no brain to actually pick PITT in this spot, but why did i not do it? 

why did i do this "fake" sharp stuff i did, like i did with tampa bay earlier today? 

well, because thats how i won on BUF. what kind of lunatic bets against NE at Gillette, under the watchful eye of Master Kraft himself, no matter whose at QB right?

scalabrine, you are a genius in your handicapping views. I should just slammed BUF ML, called it a day and watched the rest of the games without having the possessed interest that only the most fanatical fan would have when every normal person has turned off the game for lack of interest in its eventual outcome. 


youre only human man. We've all over-thought garbage and gone against what we think many times. Gambling does that. No Brady, undefeated against a good emerging team wasn't really a surprise imo with Buffalo winning. They're good at home and will good some good scalps on the road. After a decent win savor the moment and just bet like a 10th of your winnings if not 5 percent.

Best thing to do is because you love gambling and love the action just bet 10 bucks a game if you got 500 bucks so you can do that. Enjoy it. darn trying to make money. If it were about that, why are you betting your money in the first place? Try to win, but bet because you love it. f your bank roll increases, still bet 1-2 percent per game. You won't go bust.

Problem is all gamblers get sucked in. Addicts. Can control if for a while then they go haywire. Why? because THEY CAN'T CONTROL IT.

This will always be a apart of you. Don't have those mind darn moments of losing it all or going all in. You dont need to darn up to have a wake up call.

LEARN NOW
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

Teams above 76% winning percentage after week 9 have been 301-304 against the spread versus a team not above 76%, so playing against those teams have not gotten you to the pay window.

However, playing on teams with less than a 23% winning percentage after week 9, playing against an opponent greater than 23% have a record of 316-274 (53.8%) so that idea is valid. 

I was talking 7-2 ATS and 2-7 ATS
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by mafioso:

 

The real art I guess would be learning to recognize when to bet public and when to bet square
I am dedicating this season to doing that.

 Spot on comment.

OP - you can't pay attention to those site that list the %s on each side.  They aren't reliable.  Why would LV or books release that information? They wouldn't, there is no reason to.

If you want to get a good idea of where the public is on, look at the polls on ESPN or CBS sports that ask 'who do you think is going to win'.  Those are a much better indication of what the public thinks.



 
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Posted: #23
To the OP, in post #19 you stated things like "the books knew pitt was going to cover"

Gotta get that out of your head first and foremost. The books set a spread that is by all means the most probable margin of victory. They set a ML that holds the most probable percentage of victory, and holds +/- value. The technology used by the books is far superior to what any one else has access to.

The books don't know the outcomes of the games before they happen. But they will always, ALWAYS win vs us in the long run. For they are getting the better end of the deal on every bet w/ the juice they set. We are in their playground, and we play by their rules.

It is a tough task to say the least.

*PS easy on the acid, it's fun at first but can really mess up your head down the road. Some aspects of life are better left unknown*

GL
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by anaheimRX:

thank you guys for chiming in. i was kind of afraid everyone would think i was a nut job and ignore me. 

it isn't the analysts or media that trips me up, its the public betting %s and amount wagered. my brain just can't accept that these big public sides can win. 

let me try and develop my theory of NFL handicapping further: 

my basic strategy is to fade the public. i like siding with the books. i find comfort in knowing that my money is on the same side as the sharpest guys in the world, the dudes at the books who set the lines. 

ill look at public % bets, but lately i have been using the consensus from another sports betting site that i will leave unnamed, which shows the actual amount wagered on each side. 

of course, now that i think about it, i have no way to know if this data is true, and it seems pretty far fetched that the books would actually release this information. if they are indeed true, i dont think it represents all the money wagered at every book of course, but its a big enough sample size to see the discrepancies in wagering $ on each team. 

almost every team getting big, lopsided money on Sunday lost except for Denver, according to the consensus. 

TEN got slammed, NE of course got slammed, DEN got slammed, PIT got slammed, but not till pretty late, and for some reason NYG were getting hit hard starting very early in the week. 

all the money was on PIT in the sun nite game. i estimate it to have been around $200K on KC vs. $4 million on PIT. 

i have to believe that the books knew PIT would easily cover. there was about a 1% chance that KC could cover the +4 or +5. 

so if the numbers were all right, were the books willing to take that gamble, that 1% gamble that they could basically clean house on all the public PITT money? 

i believe thats what happened on NE vs. BUF. i believe it was less than $100K on BUF and $3-5 million on NE. 

i bet KC because i refused to believe that the books would just give away millions of dollars. 

had they made so much money earlier in the day that decided, hey, screw it, lets just gamble big and see what happens? i can't believe that. they want to make money. why would they not take all the money they can on every game? 

another thing i couldnt understand was the huge money coming in the NYG starting early in the week. the contrarian in me felt like maybe these bettors knew something i didnt, that MIN was due for a loss or letdown. 

i could not accept the fact that the public is THAT stupid, that they would bet the NYG on the road +4 vs. an undefeated Vikings team at one of the toughest road venues to play with a swarming Mike Zimmer defense. 

and now again im torn on AZ vs. SF. i instantly see that game and think primetime dog, automatic. but what if AZ comes in and steamrolls them? i will feel so stupid. 

it HAS to be a setup. they know everyone is going to fade SF, no matter how mediocre AZ has looked most of this season. 

you made a thread based on this. Now you think san fran will win because everyone thinks arizona will? dude dont gamble or just bet what you think will win. simple. dont bet big.

Logic, Luck and intuition. Logic is the number 1 factor though in gambling. Use that and what you think will win and you will win more than you lose.


 
 
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Posted: #25
First of all, I don't know why you think you're money is actually on the sides of the guys who set the lines. The lines are set to try and get even action and collect the juice really.

Bookies lose money all the time believe it or not. Plenty of offshore places have gone bust.

Secondly. why don't you try handicapping off of something other than just going against some stupid data about money wagered that probably isn't correct anyway?
Why don't you try:
1) Watching the games
2) Looking at teams schedules
3) Deciding whether the value is in the line

You know, actually watch, study, think for yourself, stuff like that?

I would disagree with the poster who said, if you want to bet sharp, only bet sharp and if you want to bet public always bet public. I would say make each decision based on where YOU think the value is. Where YOU think the right side of the number is. Is this going to be a game where the public wins or gets burned is one way to look at it but it's only part of it. Sure sometimes a number seems lower than normal and you can be 'sharp' and take the dog and win. Sometimes it won't work (like TB vs Denver) and you feel like an idiot but at the end of the day that's just one loss. And sometimes you have those games where you know the public is all over the favorite but you just have to join them because otherwise you're going to be relying on the Saints defense to get stops or Ryan Tannehill to not turn the ball over. You really do have to watch games to see if teams are as bad or good as their stats say.

And yes, gambling is an addiction and for most people the rush is secondary to the money. I learned that a long time ago and found that I get the same feeling even with smaller bets and actually did better because I picked more dogs. The wins still feel good and the losses hurt less and I hardly ever get upset over losing unless it's a really bad beat. And even then I get over it because I've had so many over the years. And plenty of lucky wins too (you always remember the losses more tho)

And by betting smaller you can withstand a losing streak far better. Nothing worse than getting crippled on a bad week where the ball doesn't bounce your way and then the next week all the teams you like win but because your bankroll got decimated in the bad week the good week wasn't as profitable as it should have been.

Don't let one game define the whole season. Including college there is pretty much always a football game on from now until February. Just move on to next week.
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