Posted:
#26
Or even if you told us the correct score 3 games in a row or something like that. That would work.
On a quest to be the very best
0
Is it just me or isn't this line...
Posted:
#27
Why are so many focusing on the line? You could make the line 1-4 and you will get more Patriots money than Rams money. Ask yourself this: what would win the books the most money Sunday? Answer imo: Patriots win but Rams cover. But what does the score need to be for that to happen. The game needs to end with the Patriots winning by 1 or 2. Think about it. Last years Super Bowl loss has to come into play here and the books know this. Inviting the public to get NE at -2.5 makes the spread seem like a gift. The only way the books balance the money here is if the line reaches 3.5/4. I still think you get more Patriots money when it’s all said and done but the books can win the totals for first half and full game and they can still do ok on futures given that the Rams were 10/1 for most of the year. What people forget is that until the playoffs, not many thought the Patriots would make the big game. Not as many as who thought they would at the beginning of the year. We had the McDaniels fiasco, the Josh Gordon debacle, the “Gronk is washed up” talk....You really have to try hard to get the public off of the betting favorite and the media imo did a good job but now that they are in the big game, decisions need to be made. Is there really another opponent that could raise more eyebrows than the Rams? Think about it. McVay, Goff, youth, Suh, Donald, the Rams essentially going into New Orleans without Gurley really playing. It seems like a great opponent huh? Lots of ammunition. At the end of the day though, do you see Brady and Belly losing two in a row. One to a backup and this one to Jared Goff? I know where I stand.....
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Posted:
#29
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:
Why are so many focusing on the line? You could make the line 1-4 and you will get more Patriots money than Rams money. Ask yourself this: what would win the books the most money Sunday? Answer imo: Patriots win but Rams cover. But what does the score need to be for that to happen. The game needs to end with the Patriots winning by 1 or 2. Think about it. Last years Super Bowl loss has to come into play here and the books know this. Inviting the public to get NE at -2.5 makes the spread seem like a gift. The only way the books balance the money here is if the line reaches 3.5/4. I still think you get more Patriots money when it’s all said and done but the books can win the totals for first half and full game and they can still do ok on futures given that the Rams were 10/1 for most of the year. What people forget is that until the playoffs, not many thought the Patriots would make the big game. Not as many as who thought they would at the beginning of the year. We had the McDaniels fiasco, the Josh Gordon debacle, the “Gronk is washed up” talk....You really have to try hard to get the public off of the betting favorite and the media imo did a good job but now that they are in the big game, decisions need to be made. Is there really another opponent that could raise more eyebrows than the Rams? Think about it. McVay, Goff, youth, Suh, Donald, the Rams essentially going into New Orleans without Gurley really playing. It seems like a great opponent huh? Lots of ammunition. At the end of the day though, do you see Brady and Belly losing two in a row. One to a backup and this one to Jared Goff? I know where I stand.....
true
Why are so many focusing on the line? You could make the line 1-4 and you will get more Patriots money than Rams money. Ask yourself this: what would win the books the most money Sunday? Answer imo: Patriots win but Rams cover. But what does the score need to be for that to happen. The game needs to end with the Patriots winning by 1 or 2. Think about it. Last years Super Bowl loss has to come into play here and the books know this. Inviting the public to get NE at -2.5 makes the spread seem like a gift. The only way the books balance the money here is if the line reaches 3.5/4. I still think you get more Patriots money when it’s all said and done but the books can win the totals for first half and full game and they can still do ok on futures given that the Rams were 10/1 for most of the year. What people forget is that until the playoffs, not many thought the Patriots would make the big game. Not as many as who thought they would at the beginning of the year. We had the McDaniels fiasco, the Josh Gordon debacle, the “Gronk is washed up” talk....You really have to try hard to get the public off of the betting favorite and the media imo did a good job but now that they are in the big game, decisions need to be made. Is there really another opponent that could raise more eyebrows than the Rams? Think about it. McVay, Goff, youth, Suh, Donald, the Rams essentially going into New Orleans without Gurley really playing. It seems like a great opponent huh? Lots of ammunition. At the end of the day though, do you see Brady and Belly losing two in a row. One to a backup and this one to Jared Goff? I know where I stand.....
0
Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by Cap-Master:
lol but it's still possible for someone to make accurate guess based on capping
lol but it's still possible for someone to make accurate guess based on capping
Nah no one is that good if you know how they're fixing the games you can outperform anyone who's trying to actually cap the games and show us
On a quest to be the very best
0
Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:
I disagree, I think I am that good sometimes.
Quote Originally Posted by Cap-Master:
lol but it's still possible for someone to make accurate guess based on capping
Nah no one is that good if you know how they're fixing the games you can outperform anyone who's trying to actually cap the games and show uslol but it's still possible for someone to make accurate guess based on capping
So while I have never done it personally, (Never even tried)I do believe if I tried enough times, I could guess the score right 3 straight. Likely Not on the first try but eventually it would happen. I see what you mean though. The thing is, I do not KNOW the script I only go by what I think or read into it. So if pats win by 1 that was not just a lucky guess, but rather that was me reading into the script.. and the lines help you do that. So if I can do it once, why not two more times? There's ALWAYS the chance of being wrong even with 100% angles they can bust. But the lines give us clues and better chance to guess correctly.
0
Posted:
#33
Quote Originally Posted by cdubs1222:
Sheeesh You are nuts if you think this is gonna be a blowout against the pats. I'm a god damn jets fan and I have NE -1.5 for 5 units and NE ML / U57.5 parlay 250/538 Hate the pats with every bone in my body, but the Rams shouldn't be there and I'm not betting against Brady and bill
I don't think that anymore. I updated my post if you scroll down towards the end of the first page I think
Sheeesh You are nuts if you think this is gonna be a blowout against the pats. I'm a god damn jets fan and I have NE -1.5 for 5 units and NE ML / U57.5 parlay 250/538 Hate the pats with every bone in my body, but the Rams shouldn't be there and I'm not betting against Brady and bill
0
Posted:
#34
Quote Originally Posted by Cap-Master:
The reason why its a significant, is because teams rarely win by 1 in the NFL. And if it happens on the one game that had a spread of 2.5 and less, then I think that should be enough along, to show people that sports is rigged. But if you can't see it, that means you're just terrible at spotting patterns and sports handicapping probably isn't the best profession for you. I am not sure about your system. Do you follow those plays yourself across the board? How many years have you back tested it? I am not into straight betting, just curious.
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:
I disagree, I think I am that good sometimes. So while I have never done it personally, (Never even tried)I do believe if I tried enough times, I could guess the score right 3 straight. Likely Not on the first try but eventually it would happen. I see what you mean though. The thing is, I do not KNOW the script I only go by what I think or read into it. So if pats win by 1 that was not just a lucky guess, but rather that was me reading into the script.. and the lines help you do that. So if I can do it once, why not two more times? There's ALWAYS the chance of being wrong even with 100% angles they can bust. But the lines give us clues and better chance to guess correctly. Quote Originally Posted by Cap-Master:
lol but it's still possible for someone to make accurate guess based on capping
Nah no one is that good if you know how they're fixing the games you can outperform anyone who's trying to actually cap the games and show uslol but it's still possible for someone to make accurate guess based on capping
0
Posted:
#35
On Sunday there will be loads of money coming in the over and the Rams and the books know this. That is what happened with Phily last year. Ask yourself, if you were to take the Rams, would you bet it now? Everyone has had the hope that the line was going to reach a solid +3. Same with the over, the tendency so far has been the under and the line has moved down. Most "sports gurus" think it may still go down, so any sharp over bettors out there are holding their money.
0
Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by gutinstinctus:
On Sunday there will be loads of money coming in the over and the Rams and the books know this. That is what happened with Phily last year. Ask yourself, if you were to take the Rams, would you bet it now? Everyone has had the hope that the line was going to reach a solid +3. Same with the over, the tendency so far has been the under and the line has moved down. Most "sports gurus" think it may still go down, so any sharp over bettors out there are holding their money.
I never thought it would go to 3 until the very last minute. Even so, I have not placed any bets yet. That wouldn't be wise to bet early on the super bowl. The more time you put into it, the more likely you are to get the winner correct. Because it took me longer than a minute to figure out that the patriots are going to win this game. I have a perfect read (I Hope) into the line now. I am thinking about going BOTH Rams ATS and Pats ML but it just seems pretty crazy even though its a low risk bet one will win I am thinking both will cash.
On Sunday there will be loads of money coming in the over and the Rams and the books know this. That is what happened with Phily last year. Ask yourself, if you were to take the Rams, would you bet it now? Everyone has had the hope that the line was going to reach a solid +3. Same with the over, the tendency so far has been the under and the line has moved down. Most "sports gurus" think it may still go down, so any sharp over bettors out there are holding their money.
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