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Investigating The Most Important Stat In NFL Betting

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
take a pill bidniner, i've seen your picks. not that mine are any better.  we all can use help with our picks, hence why were on this site.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

Now take the top 10 teams in yards per attempt and compare. If you can do better than 8 out of 10 playoff teams (including both super bowl teams in the top 3) then that stat is a better predictor.

I very much doubt you can though

 

 

 

He is not saying his stat equals wins or superbowl rings....but he gave a stat that was 410- 102, yes 410-102 ATS the spread last season!!!!   That is insane.....and it is 38-10 this year ATS!!!

 

How can you not pay attention to that???  38-10 ATS the spread already....youhave to give it some props...you have to start factoring it and try to take advantage of it unless the trend quickly stops....but seeing it went 80% ALL of last season and is already over 75% right now, I dont think you can argue it....

Sure turnover usually determine who wins the game, but can you say before the game starts who turns the ball over???  No....but before the game you can know who has more yards per pass attempt....

 

This stat is crazy, and I am going to try to take advantage of using it...

 
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Posted: #28
how was buffalo a pick last week,when tom brady and the passing attack average more pass yards per attempt.
??????
 
Prospect
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Posted: #29
Where can you find each teams YPPA each week?
 
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Posted: #30
although it might be a good stat it could also be a very misleading stat

  the  score of the game and time remaining on the clock could   play big part of that sta

 if a team is  down two or three scores late in the game and is throwing the ball 15-40 yds down field on every play  .

 and the defense is playing soft. playing clock and giving up throws in the middle of the field .........

.the losing team that was outplayed and maybe never really in the game will have a higher yds avg per than the team that dominated them  

for this reason the  average yds per throw can mean nothing 

better to watch the games and  remember  actually what happens cause relaying on stats don't always tell what took  place. 




 
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Posted: #31
Great info I will follow rest of year and see. Thanks!
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by chillinsc:

how was buffalo a pick last week,when tom brady and the passing attack average more pass yards per attempt.
??????


Thats what i was going to ask and it would have to be pass yds per attempt b4 the game not after that game!!
 
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Posted: #33
By no means am I backing this or using it in my handicapping. I heard about it and looked into it.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by xianshino:

Where can you find each teams YPPA each week?


Is there a site that has this info?
 
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Posted: #35
It used to be consider running and turnovers were two of the biggest stats. Now it may be passing and turnovers. Sports does evolve and with that betting angles. The big picture is to be ahead of the trends and angles.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by xianshino:



Is there a site that has this info?

teamrankings
 
Prospect
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by tep:


teamrankings


Thanks tep!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #38

Before the game, how are you going to prdect whos going to have the most yppa?????da

 

 
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Posted: #39
Here is the link for the stat

https://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt

 
Prospect
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Posted: #40
And how about defense, NE is giving up 8.8 ypa and oak is at 6.9 ??
 
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Posted: #41
So you went back this year and looked at every teams Pass yards per attempt was b4 the games they played that week correct??
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by xianshino:



Is there a site that has this info?



ESPN has it. but there's many out there..google "yards per pass attempt"


 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

For Example:

Teams with a positive turnover differential have gone 33-3 all-time in the Super Bowl

That's wins and losses.  Not covers.  Plenty of SB winners didn't cover.

Far greater than the record of teams who had the higher number of yards per pass/reception.

 
 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by composite:

That's wins and losses. Not covers. Plenty of SB winners didn't cover.

Yes, 8 of the 45 winners to be exact. That means  82% of the time the winner DID cover

The Super Bowl Champion covered the spread in all Super Bowls excep Super Bowlst:
 
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Quote Originally Posted by composite:

Plenty of SB winners didn't cover.

Far greater than the record of teams who had the higher number of yards per pass/reception.

 

So, I am pretty sure you are wrong. You shouldn't assume things, it can make you look foolish

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