Posted:
#26
NFL:
DETROIT Lions - ATLANTA Falcons (current -3.5, 50.5, opening -3, 51)
My gut feeling from looking at it: the Lions got embarrassed at Arizona last week same as Arizona got embarrassed the week before by Seattle and now are playing the Falcons who embarrassed the Giants last week, the team that embarrassed the Saints week before, got embarrassed by the Redskins week before and embarrassed the Packers week before. Of course, after being embarrassed by the Bengals week before that. So, if you get my point - the teams in NFL hate to be embarrassed and week after that trying to embarrass the opposition. If it was a regular middle of the season game when the Falcons were still uncertain if they're an overrated team destined to become a fluke towards the end of the season or they are a playoff caliber team - I would think they will still try to come into this game and make a usual effort. But, since they're well at the point they wanted to be and the only concern they might have is not repeating the last season's and the season before scenario - losing week 16 and exiting the playoffs at the first game each of those seasons. So, hearing the coaching staff talking of finishing the season on a strong note as all the teams who play strong in December - January, have a good shot at taking it all - makes me to reexamine my natural support for a home underdog on a prime time. So, my gut feeling is Atlanta winning but nor covering with some doubts in Stafford that will be examined further in my research.
What the numbers say: 3 independent computerized tools at the disposal of odds makers predict 27.4 -24 ATLANTA, 25.6 - 21.4 ATLANTA and 28.5 - 26 ATLANTA. Those calculations are the result of 1000 simulations ran by a computer. So here too, so far the notion of Atlanta winning but Detroit covering is holding. Not real dominant bet on Detroit, but not a red light neither.
One thing that is important thou is the T/O ratio that shows that the Falcons are +9 in that dpt while the host are -9. (18 T/O margin!!!). That is something close to a red light actually saying that even if all are good and happy with certain result - you can't be sure because the Lions can screw it up like the Eagles and the Bears screwed up the results whole world would be happy with.
Now let's examine what the guys who look at the tapes of the games can contribute here:
