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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Hedge or not to hedge

    «First Previous 12
    lbcake
    jimmyc33030
    shrewdie
    qzip
    HurricaneVince
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    «First Previous 12
     
    lbcake
    lbcake
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 5:28 PM ET #26

    Let's talk logic.

    Why include a game played a day later? 

    i.e. 5 fold

    4 on Sunday, then 1 Monday night. Why not wager a 4 teamer instead?

    READ the above link I posted. Its a Van Special circa 2007. Superior.

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    Let's talk logic.

    Why include a game played a day later? 

    i.e. 5 fold

    4 on Sunday, then 1 Monday night. Why not wager a 4 teamer instead?

    READ the above link I posted. Its a Van Special circa 2007. Superior.

     
    jimmyc33030
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 6:06 PM ET #27

    Wow I wished I asked this a long time ago. I’m getting schooled and looks like I broke all the rules. I rarely parley or tease but every once in a while I do. Will be thinking about that twice, you guys taught me a lot on hedging. I have and do follow a couple guys on here, Van being one definitely fatten my wallet over a couple years, thank you kindly Sir. I’ll be letting it ride, what will be will be. I had thought about an alternate with the Browns but I don’t like paying the juice that comes with it. Thanks for the schooling enjoyed reading my lessons. Good luck to everyone & Happy Holidays

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    Wow I wished I asked this a long time ago. I’m getting schooled and looks like I broke all the rules. I rarely parley or tease but every once in a while I do. Will be thinking about that twice, you guys taught me a lot on hedging. I have and do follow a couple guys on here, Van being one definitely fatten my wallet over a couple years, thank you kindly Sir. I’ll be letting it ride, what will be will be. I had thought about an alternate with the Browns but I don’t like paying the juice that comes with it. Thanks for the schooling enjoyed reading my lessons. Good luck to everyone & Happy Holidays

     
    shrewdie
    shrewdie
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 6:16 PM ET #28

    @Ed-Collins

     100% correct

    but most people haven’t got the intelligence to understand it

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    @Ed-Collins

     100% correct

    but most people haven’t got the intelligence to understand it

     
    shrewdie
    shrewdie
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 6:22 PM ET #29

    @vanzack

     I’ve been involved in threads alongside you van , trying to explain why you don’t hedge but you just can’t educate some people.

     

    i will add one caveat 

     

    if I have a team at + 5000 to win the Super Bowl bet at the start of the season and they make the last game , if the other team is plus money I might take some if that , or take them with the points hoping for a middle

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    @vanzack

     I’ve been involved in threads alongside you van , trying to explain why you don’t hedge but you just can’t educate some people.

     

    i will add one caveat 

     

    if I have a team at + 5000 to win the Super Bowl bet at the start of the season and they make the last game , if the other team is plus money I might take some if that , or take them with the points hoping for a middle

     
    qzip
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 6:24 PM ET #30

    I mean whether  to hedge or not depends on the nature of these parlays.  If it's like a bunch of 2-3 or even 4 game/play parlays(and you have only won 1 or 2 legs so far), of course you shouldn't hedge.  That's going to be a long term losing strategy for sure.  If you are doing 3 team parlays and after the first two legs are covered you are like "man I've got to hedge", you just need to switch to doing 2 team parlays lol......

    Now if it's like a 7 or 8 teamer and you have every leg covered but this one, sure.....hedge to *some* degree(not the whole thing).  Because then you've actually accomplished something to the point where you deserve the hedge.

    I just find it funny  when people win a leg or two of a parlay and start scrambling for a hedge on the last play as if they have done something amazing so far.  Like no.....you've won a game or two.  Winning a game or two in a parlay isn't a reason to start pissing down your pants legs because you're afraid to 'lose it all'.  If you haven't really done shit yet, you really can't lose much so no hedge needed.

    Only you know which category all these parlays fit in.

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    I mean whether  to hedge or not depends on the nature of these parlays.  If it's like a bunch of 2-3 or even 4 game/play parlays(and you have only won 1 or 2 legs so far), of course you shouldn't hedge.  That's going to be a long term losing strategy for sure.  If you are doing 3 team parlays and after the first two legs are covered you are like "man I've got to hedge", you just need to switch to doing 2 team parlays lol......

    Now if it's like a 7 or 8 teamer and you have every leg covered but this one, sure.....hedge to *some* degree(not the whole thing).  Because then you've actually accomplished something to the point where you deserve the hedge.

    I just find it funny  when people win a leg or two of a parlay and start scrambling for a hedge on the last play as if they have done something amazing so far.  Like no.....you've won a game or two.  Winning a game or two in a parlay isn't a reason to start pissing down your pants legs because you're afraid to 'lose it all'.  If you haven't really done shit yet, you really can't lose much so no hedge needed.

    Only you know which category all these parlays fit in.

     
    HurricaneVince
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 6:26 PM ET #31

    @Yanasaur

    This is where I am/was myself...I had a 6 teamer finishing up tonight ($240 paying $2250...largely ML faves) with Denver ML. I went thru hell stress on Tampa to get this far, and I am cursed with Ohio teams in games...so I took the cash out option for $1470 instead of risking the game (Hard Rock Bet offers early cash out, not sure how that compares to a standard hedge but I didn't feel like betting $1470 to win another $780 was worth it to me...personal financial situation factoring in here too)

     

    Now I can parlay some player props for a stress free lotto ticket tonight lol

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    @Yanasaur

    This is where I am/was myself...I had a 6 teamer finishing up tonight ($240 paying $2250...largely ML faves) with Denver ML. I went thru hell stress on Tampa to get this far, and I am cursed with Ohio teams in games...so I took the cash out option for $1470 instead of risking the game (Hard Rock Bet offers early cash out, not sure how that compares to a standard hedge but I didn't feel like betting $1470 to win another $780 was worth it to me...personal financial situation factoring in here too)

     

    Now I can parlay some player props for a stress free lotto ticket tonight lol

     
    CAPPERCOM
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 6:31 PM ET #32

    @jimmyc33030

    I WENT FROM A NEVER HEDGE... TO AN ALWAYS HEDGE WHEN THE OPPORTUNITY WAS AVAILABLE...

    SOMETIMES EVEN SETTING MY LAST LEG OF THE PARLAY PURPOSELY ON A LATER TIME.

    GOOD LUCK... GO BRONCOS!

     

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    @jimmyc33030

    I WENT FROM A NEVER HEDGE... TO AN ALWAYS HEDGE WHEN THE OPPORTUNITY WAS AVAILABLE...

    SOMETIMES EVEN SETTING MY LAST LEG OF THE PARLAY PURPOSELY ON A LATER TIME.

    GOOD LUCK... GO BRONCOS!

     

     
    jimmyc33030
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 7:00 PM ET #33

    Qzip that’s where I am 4 team round Robbin just need Broncos to sweep. I’m thinking when I have hedged in the past I didn’t hedge correctly. When I hedged I would just hedge the amount I bet. 

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    Qzip that’s where I am 4 team round Robbin just need Broncos to sweep. I’m thinking when I have hedged in the past I didn’t hedge correctly. When I hedged I would just hedge the amount I bet. 

     
    Manimizer
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 7:05 PM ET #34

    @jimmyc33030

     Why do you have the same bet in multiple parlays first of all? Next, unless you're willing to lose all bets, hedging is a no brainer, even if it's merely enough to guarantee you don't lose any money. ??

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    @jimmyc33030

     Why do you have the same bet in multiple parlays first of all? Next, unless you're willing to lose all bets, hedging is a no brainer, even if it's merely enough to guarantee you don't lose any money. ??

     
    Chetmee
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 7:54 PM ET #35

    Always hedge if ur going to make $75 to $100 anything below, let is ride...

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    Always hedge if ur going to make $75 to $100 anything below, let is ride...

     
    Knollywood100
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 8:03 PM ET #36

    I guess the hedge would be Cleve-4.5 @+380 So, depends how much ya stand to win.

    GL!

    The hospital? It's a big building with patients.
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    I guess the hedge would be Cleve-4.5 @+380 So, depends how much ya stand to win.

    GL!

     
    qzip
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 8:30 PM ET #37

    @Knollywood100

     I'm very confused....the whole idea of hedging is to set it up where you are guaranteed to win money in the end either way(or at least not lose money).  If he plays Cle-4.5/+380(sounds a bit generous by the way even if his book will let him sell however many points he wants like that), then there is a *huge* gap of outcomes(anywhere from Denver winning by 5 to cleveland winning by 4....essentially any close game) where he loses both the original parlay and the hedge.  Thats like the opposite of a hedge lol.....

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    @Knollywood100

     I'm very confused....the whole idea of hedging is to set it up where you are guaranteed to win money in the end either way(or at least not lose money).  If he plays Cle-4.5/+380(sounds a bit generous by the way even if his book will let him sell however many points he wants like that), then there is a *huge* gap of outcomes(anywhere from Denver winning by 5 to cleveland winning by 4....essentially any close game) where he loses both the original parlay and the hedge.  Thats like the opposite of a hedge lol.....

     
    Jimmy_Cats
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 8:57 PM ET #38

    Quote Originally Posted by shrewdie:

    @Ed-Collins  100% correct but most people haven’t got the intelligence to understand it

    Can you read?  OP posted right above you.  He gets it.  It's not rocket science.  

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    Quote Originally Posted by shrewdie:

    @Ed-Collins  100% correct but most people haven’t got the intelligence to understand it

    Can you read?  OP posted right above you.  He gets it.  It's not rocket science.  

     
     
    Crusher13
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2024 - 1:01 AM ET #39

    Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:

    Go GARDENING for what you want.. As Broncos fan too...think Browns give Denver a tussle OR I could be Totally wrong... too bad you didn't take ML..could have middled...play alternate lines like Browns +7', 9'..there's the Gamble  Hope we BOTH win..

    Well I advised you to play +9'..what did you end up doing?? Tight game..was a tussle..cool

    Congratulations hitting all your parlay tickets..you got lucky..500 + yds offense for Brownsthumbs_up

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    Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:

    Go GARDENING for what you want.. As Broncos fan too...think Browns give Denver a tussle OR I could be Totally wrong... too bad you didn't take ML..could have middled...play alternate lines like Browns +7', 9'..there's the Gamble  Hope we BOTH win..

    Well I advised you to play +9'..what did you end up doing?? Tight game..was a tussle..cool

    Congratulations hitting all your parlay tickets..you got lucky..500 + yds offense for Brownsthumbs_up

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