Hedge or not to hedge

I’m looking for advise. I have a few parleys that the last leg is with Broncos -5.5

should I hedge the Browns plus the points or let it ride. Thank you in advance 

Let it ride.

Depends on the money but a hedge would be wise move 

@jimmyc33030

 Do the math and make the decision.

Do you want 100% of nothing or a certain percentage of something

Good luck!

Analytics:  if YOU are a longtime *PROVEN* documented winner with your bets, ie. consistent winner, then there is no valid reason to doubt your selections within the parlays, as thjey would be backed by a higher percentage of coming through for you, based on your consistent winning percentages in your handicapping....Let it ride would be a percentage winner, over time...

*However, if you are among the estimated 95% of cappers who DO NOT have a consistent winning percentage,  over time, then it's likely best to consider your parlays lucky to get to that point and any capper in a similar position would be advised to hedge for a smaller BUT GUARANTEED profit!!!

The decision should ONLY come down to YOUR confidence level in YOUR consistent ability to select winning bets far more often than not.

One caveat: of course this presumes there is no SURPRISE gameday/last minute announcement of a GAME CHANGING injury status update!

If you never hedge, you will have more money over the course of your lifetime.

Hedging comes at a price... and you are the that has to pay that price.

If you are considering hedging, you shouldn't have put that final leg on the parlay at all. You should have left it off. You would then already have your profit and could bet a portion of it the final leg.

Other option is to watch and wager in game depending on what would get most profit.

Parlays at least significant ones are usually lotto shots. Rarely ever winning bettors and even if they are it doesn't hurt to hedge. You don't have to hedge 50%. IMO it is beyond dumb not to guarantee profit. As example if you have a 100 dollar parlay to win 10,000 you can put 500-1000 on the other side. Guarantee 400 or more  at worst  and still basically ride the parlay to collect 90-95%.

If you always hedge when given the opportunity, and I never hedge, I will eventually have more money than you. Maybe not that day, maybe not that week... and maybe not even that season. But over the course of a large sample size, I will.

Hedging comes at a price. You have to pay that price.

Your problem is you are thinking short term. You are thinking over the course of a day or a week. Don't do that. If you never hedge, ever, you will have more money than if you always hedge.

As was said so well in this epic thread,

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=740779

"If you find yourself in a POSITION to hedge, you've already made a fundamental error."

If you want to maximize your long-term profits, do NOT hedge.

Many posters here will tell you to take the "guaranteed" money. Ha! Taking "guaranteed money" is not necessarily a smart move and I can prove it with a very simple example:

Let's say your chosen football team, a team that was favored by just a single point, is leading by ten points with just a few minutes left to go in the game. If they cover the spread, which it look like they will almost certainly do, you win $1,000.00! (Your risk was $550.00.)

I come along and offer to buy your ticket from you, right now, for $700. Do you sell it to me?

If your answer is no, they why not? I'm offering you guaranteed money! There's still a few minutes left to play! Anything could still happen in this game!

Well, of course you shouldn't sell it to me or anyone else. At least not for $700. The reason is simple - that ticket, at this moment in time, is worth much more than $700.00. Depending upon exact game scenario (exactly how much time is left and who has the ball), that ticket is probably worth closer to to $950.

This is EXACTLY what happens when you hedge. You sell something for less than what it's worth. You normally do NOT want to do this, whether you're selling a car or a house or whatever.

Hedging comes at a price and YOU have to pay that price.

You will make more money in a very short period of time if you never hedge. To put it another way, if you and I bet on the same teams/games, and you hedge whenever you can and I never hedge, I will very soon have more money than you. Maybe not that weekend... maybe not that month... but very soon.

If you want to maximize profit don't bet parlays. If you bet parlays and have a shot at a big winner take guarantee.

Hedge an alt line for browns. Don’t get greedy 

Thanks everyone I never plan to hedge I think about hedging when something like this comes up. No im not a constant winner unfortunately. I feel confident in the Broncos covering the number but I’ve been down that road before and bit me in the ass. However I’m probably going to stay the course and let it ride vs getting a little back if I hedge the Browns. Rather have a bigger return or nothing then collecting a hedge bet cover. If the number gets to 7 I may reconsider and shoot for a middle.  Much appreciate for the input 

Great explanation Ed-Collin’s you talked me out of considering to hedge thank you much. I’m not a big parley better, only play them when I feel it’s ripe for the Pickens. I know they typically bite you in the ass. 

100%   spot  on  

20 years of trying to educate the masses.

You are a better man than me Ed.  I knew I would see you when I saw the title of this thread.  I tapped out a few years ago.

  Of course!  The analytics are clear!

It should only come down to one's confidence in his longterm winning pct.

If he is, then let it ride!!!

If he is not, then far better to hedge and take the smaller but guaranteed profit.

This applies to each and every similar situation, irrespective of what teams are playing.

Mind you,  parlays of any significant $$$ are ill-advised unless one is already a long term consistent winner (doesn't need to be publicly documented; one's own private knowledge should be the guide)....since parlays are simply a faster ticket to Loserville than stand alone straight bets.

@fubah2

So your advice:

If you think you will win, let it ride.  If you dont think you will win, hedge.

And then you call this analysis "analytics".  Jeesh.  It is almost a sure thing that when someone uses the word analytics they have no idea what they are talking about.

Here is the only advice you will ever need:

Dont ever bet a parlay where you put yourself in a position to hedge.  If you have, you have already made a mistake.  Just leave the last game off the parlay, never include a Monday night game on a sunday parlay etc...

You pay a tax to hedge.  You are giving away money to hedge.

Any other advice is nonsense.

Go GARDENING for what you want..

As Broncos fan too...think Browns give Denver a tussle OR I could be Totally wrong... too bad you didn't take ML..could have middled...play alternate lines like Browns +7', 9'..there's the Gamble 

Hope we BOTH win..

Try to get an in-game bet where you can middle and win both.

 https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting/to-hedge-or-not-to-hedge-here-is-the-math-and-why-hedging-is-a-bad-idea-740779

Go with your gut

Whatever your choice, good luck!

Humm  let's see, I say HEDGE.

Nobody has asked this question...

How much is the money worth to you?

I dont care that the math and strategy says hedging costs you money, sometimes that cost is worth it if the money is a large enough sum that you will be very upset you didnt take some guaranteed. 

For example: Every week I make some lotto parlays for the hell of it for 5 or 10 bucks. Whatever week it was when Detroit went to Dallas and blew their doors off I had that as the last leg of a several thousand dollar parlay that included a bunch of longer odds TD scorers. I hedged to guarantee myself at least $2k bc I wanted to buy my wife some jewelry I wouldnt have otherwise bought. If I lost and didnt guarantee myself that money I wouldve been sick bc thats a meaningful amount of money to me. So I cost myself some profit but the cost was worth it to me even though mathematically it wasnt. 

So how meaningful is the amount of money to you?