Hedge Help

I have a Denver 200/2600 ticket to win Super Bowl. Obviously nix going down is tough for odds. Is there any possible way of hedging and guaranteeing some profit? 

@Wilde50

 Youd basically have to hedge that by AFCCG time and HOPE the Patriots win otherwise a double whammy. My advice Let it ride. Its only $200

@wizard1183

 Ditto!

Or if you really want to gamble you can take an additional 400 and put it on the patriots -1 at -195 total lay 390 call it four hundred 

If the Patriots win and cover beyond the point you get your money back and break out even (no harm no foul)

If they (the patriots ) push with that -1 then your back to square one losing that original deuce investment.

If Denver wins you'll lose that four hundred yes, but now you can easily recoup that with hedge opportunities and locked up profits as well

You could just let your initial two hundred ride but why not try to protect that as well with wagers mentioned above? 

Not many would recommend this type of aggressive gambling but if you have the cash to do it why not?

Your money your choice 

Good luck whatever you decide 

@Wilde50

 Sure. There are calculators to help you with this.  
Normally hedging is incorrect.  
But this is one of the rare instances it is fine because of the key injury.  You have new information from when you placed the original wager. 

Bet $1,930 on Patriots -222

• If Denver wins ? +$670

• If Patriots win ? +$670

?? Guaranteed profit: about $670

You can get NE ML at pinnacle for -222 right now.  

But if you want to set it up a bit to consider after this game if they win to also hedge for the SB:

• Patriots hedge profit ˜ +$869

• Denver future dies ? –$200

• Net: +$669

• You’re DONE. Money in pocket. No Super Bowl exposure.

• Patriots hedge loses ? –$1,930

• Denver future stays alive

• Net so far: –$1,930

• You still have:

  • A Denver SB futures ticket that could win $2,600

  • Another chance to hedge in the Super Bowl

So you are not guaranteed profit yet unless you hedge again in the Super Bowl.

Your $1,930 hedge is:

• A one-game risk transfer

• NOT a full lock unless you plan to hedge again in the Super Bowl

This is how pros usually play futures.

Smart ways to handle this (ranked)

? Option 1: Rolling hedge (most common & optimal)

• Hedge this weekend enough to:

  • Get paid if Denver loses

  • Still leave SB upside alive

• Then hedge again in the Super Bowl

This usually produces more total profit than over-hedging now.

Option 2: Smaller hedge this weekend (example)

Say you hedge $1,200 on Patriots instead:

• Patriots win ? profit ˜ +$340

• Denver wins ? you’re down $1,200, but still alive for $2,600

Then you hedge the Super Bowl based on:

• Opponent

• Moneyline

• Market movement

This keeps your expected value higher.

Option 3: Over-hedge now

Your $1,930 hedge:

• Safest

• Lowest long-term upside

• Basically says: “I don’t want SB exposure at all”

Not wrong — just conservative.

Answer ONE of these and then you can figure out the exact dollar amounts:

1?? Do you want guaranteed money this weekend no matter what, even if it caps upside?
2?? Or do you want to optimize total profit, assuming you’ll hedge again in the Super Bowl?

You’re thinking about this the right way — this is exactly how sharp bettors manage futures.

Etc., etc.   

Just play around with it a little bit and decide what you think is your best play.  
You can get out of this game with a clean profit.  Or you can get out with a smaller profit while risking more to get the SB in hopes of winning more.  Then you can decide on that game what to do. 

BOL on whatever you decide.  

I have DEN in some futures as well.  
Sadly, I also have Nix to win SB MVP.  
No way to hedge that one. 

@Raiders22

 Option 2 is the ONLY safe play

@Wilde50

You could also bet live and wait for an advantageous spot to take new England in case they are down early as you may even get even or plus money and slam a couple hundred on that to hedge off on your original two hundred dollars and possibly have a winner with New England with the points and your Denver bet still alive if the Broncos win, if things present themselves and you make a play on it....just throwing another option out there for you bud.

@wizard1183

You can make it work by hedging in the SB as well.  It just will not be as much profit.  

@wizard1183

 I am sorry. I misunderstood your statement. 
I am not so sure about that. 
The safest is to hedge out now because you do not think they make the SB — that way you are guaranteed to make half as much as you can one way in that case.  
Then if they do make it you can hedge for half of what is left, etc.  

I say safest because I think it is harder for them to make the SB now.  

50 GL