Gift for the Forum: The Evaporation of HFA and Teasers

Pre-covid season: HFA was standardized to 3 points for the great majority of teams. -3 always meant the teams were even. 

COVID season: HFA essentially disappears with no fans, 0-1 pts max everywhere 

Post-covid season until today: HFA stayed as it was during covid, mysteriously 

This means home teams are undervalued, and extreme value can be found in teasers now. KC is +1.5 vs PHI at home now...teasing KC +7.5 at home is outrageous. That same teaser pre-covid would only be worth about +4.5.

Josh Allen +1.5 today at home...teased to +7.5. Outrageous. Chicago teased to +7.5 tomorrow at home vs a first time starting QB in primetime. Joke.

You can get multiple crazy favorable teasers every week now. Value that was previously thought to be unthinkable. 

HFA was worth less than 3 before Covid. And it’s different for every team imo and should be accounted for differently for every road opponent. There is no standardized amount for HFA.

@brn2loslive2win

 This is correct. I dont know if its changed since then but 3 or 4 years ago the max HFA I saw was 2.5 pts for Bills, Steelers, Ravens, Packers, i might be missing a couple others. Nobody was using 3 pts anymore for any team. And many teams were at 1 or 1.5, some had no HFA like the Chargers.