False hope reverse jinx NFL picks

Steelers ML(+140) @ Bills 1 unit

Two teams playing different kinds of football. The Bills have been playing great football after a loss to the Chiefs in which their only loss was to the Cards in a game in which they should of won. Both teams struggle in the run game but the Bills and their QB and his mobility might pose a problem the PIT.  The Bills also have one of the best Special teams return teams in the NFL as they rank top 10 in both KO and PR stats. Steelers have not played well after the Ravens game(1st one) even though they have had a winning record in that span but with teams like the Bengals and Jags on their schedule during that span you should have a winning record. Fans around here are use to the  performance from the home team at least once a year and I kind of expected it with the how the season has kind of went off schedule. I'm going to put it simple if Ben throws the ball 50 times this game they lose. I would like to know what their record is when he does because it feels like the more he drops back the less chance they have of winning. Pouncey and J.Connor return for this game so that should help out the run game which the Steelers will need to win this game. I think the Steelers know the Washington game was a wake up call for this last part of the season but their health is starting to pose a different problem.  I look for one of their best performances as seems that jig is up and the news is out, those renegades who had it made, hopefully will not be retrieved for a bounty from Buffalo Bill.

Old Cleveland @ Stand In Cleveland(+3) 1 unit @ (-107); .5 units ML(+140)

As I drown my Yinzer tears from last nights defeat to the Bills my mood has quickly changed because even with this bet if I lose I still win but I'll gladly take the money. As fan with these two other fan bases close together I always ask the question, How come the Browns fans have so much vitriol for PGH but Balty gets to skate by like you know, they didn't take your team, two championships, and said the hell with your history you can have that we'll start our own. Shame on you Balty for stealing from Cleveland and taking away are rivalry. But I digress.

The Ravens are still outside of the playoffs looking in with this new 7 team format as the beat the Cowboys 34-14. Dallas isn't built for a matchup with Baltimore, the Browns are. They have two ends in Garret and Vernon who can contain Jackson, and keep him in the pocket and shrink his passing window. Also the Ravens line is not their strong suit as in previous years. The Browns are banged up in secondary(again) but I think they can skate by this game not being 100%. Both teams are top 10 in defense and rushing the ball. The pass rush is in the middle as far as sacks, opposing QBR, and ypg for Balt. Cleveland is actually worse in those stats but I think getting pressure and disrupting Jackson is more of the focus. The key will be Mayfield who has missed some throws in previous weeks but I think he's getting adjusted to not having OBJ in the lineup. I look for Cleveland to continue the roll they are on. Speaking of QB's what was they last Cleveland QB to perform at a high level for multiple years, oh yeah when was the last time a Browns QB performed at a high level for multiple years oh this guy

13-11 ATS[6-3]  ML[7-8]  4.535

49er's @ Cowboys ML(+128) 1 unit

Cleveland gonna Cleveland  Oh well on to the next one.  

On paper 9er's are the better team but they haven't played good football since Jimmy G went down and where under .500 when he did. Even though they are still in the playoff hunt they are a long shot to get in. The defense is still hanging in there and keeping them in games but they still find ways to lose like last game versus Wash. here they did not give up touchdown on defense and still lost the game. Mullen is a good QB for a game or two but for long stretches teams seem to figure him out. Cowboys have less wins than SF but a better chance at playoffs because of their division. All these games are winnable for Dallas but they can't seem to play consistent enough on both sides of the ball to get rolling. The defense has improved over the weeks to get out of being the worst in the league but still at the bottom. The line is still struggling to get Zeke holes but have showed glimpses of putting it together(PIT and MIN games). In a turn of events Dallas seems to be more healthy than their opponent who seems to have a couple dings and day to day injuries except  D.Samuel who is out indefinitely. Cowboys will be the more motivated team with a realistic shot at the playoffs and SF has been subjected to playing road games for home games. Hopefully the Boys will show some pride and turn away the 49ers.

Almost forgot RIP Charley Pride never heard of him till last week and this song till a couple of days ago. He was a pioneer in country music.

Klaus the Viking(+7) @ Santa(Saints) 1 unit 

One day when I was watching the games at Rivers Casino a guy was cursing the Vikings up and down when they were playing the Jags. "Whenever I bet them they play like sh!t, if I don't touch them or bet against them they're f'ing world beaters" or something of that nature. That's what they are agents of chaos for the NFL, mess stuff up and move on to the week to start some new chaos; like actual Vikings.

Minny has a slight chance at the playoffs very small but still a chance. The reason they chances are slim are because of injuries as I'm typing this they have 8 DNP's with Kendricks(LB) and Rudolph(TE) being the main ones. The defense has struggled all year and really looked bad in giving up over 190 yds to of all teams the Bears who are at the bottom of that statistic. A couple of lineman did participate in practice(limited) so they should help as they will need it against the Saints. Even though the Saints rank high in defending the run I believe the Vikings can still run the ball against the Saints as they have given up an avg of 209.5 over the past two games.

The Saints finally got Brees back last week and he looked terrible but some how got it together enough to only lose by 3 to the Super Bowl Champs. After going on a nine game win streak they have lost two in a row and still have the Bucs nipping at them for the division and the Packers ahead of them for HFA. With two teams kind of trying to get some momentum going into the end of the regular season and in the Saints case into post season I'll take the points on Christmas Night.

49er's(+6.5) @ Cardinals  1.1 units @ (-118)

9er's are struggling and have switched to CJ Beathard. The defense is still solid even without their elite pass rushers that are are on IR. They are strong against the run and against the pass. The big question is whether the offense can put up enough to compete versus the Cardinals. When Mullen was QB he turned the ball over too much. He literally won the game Wash. Beathard is less mobile than Mullen but more accurate. 

The "Cardiac Cards" still hanging in the playoff hunt need this game but have tailed off a bit from the start of the season. The run game still ranks high but I don't see them having a lot of success on the ground this game versus SF. The defense has also tailed off from the beginning of the season. AZ has had some success in the TO over department and will not be surprised if they do against the 9er's.

Seen a stat on here earlier about AZ and their record as a home favorite and it did not look good. Pair that with them getting the majority of gambling tickets and I'll take SF to at least cover in their new home away from home.

So we can blame the 80's 49er's for the whole teams singing/rapping song craze of that era.

Titans @ Packers(-3) 1 unit

Surprise I'm laying points this time. Packers can clinch the #1 seed in the NFC with a win since they defeated the Saints earlier this year and own the tie-breaker. Packers defense is inside the top ten ypg. but in the middle against the run. Looks like this will be a key in the game since it looks like it's going to be some kind of precipitation with cold weather in this game. Everyone knows about King Henry and the Titans run game but the Pack are 8th in rushing also with 128.9 ypg. 

Titans come into this game as a four seed but with a loss and a couple of other results could clinging to the last spot going into the final week. As mentioned earlier they are lead by D.Henry and his league leading 1679 yards. The defense has been subpar this year as they rank 25 in total ypg., and are a little worse than the Pack in giving up rushing yards. They also are 27th against the pass and dead last in sacks.

In the end I'll take Rodgers to lead the Pack to victory if need be(hopefully by more than a FG) against this Titan defense that is no were close to last years form

Panthers (+0.5) @ Football Team  1.05 units @ (-118)

WFT has Haskins at QB today with the playoff hopes on the line, if they win their in. Looking at his numbers last week you would think he played good but and yes they did have a chance to win late but they were down 20-3 at halftime. He has been disgruntled in DC and I think he plays out of spite more so than anything at this point. He will also have limited targets to throw to this game with McLaurin, Gibson, and Sims injured for this game.

Carolina just playing out the string with McCaffery out but they still have Bridgewater at QB and I'll give them the edge at that position over the FT. They also take care of the ball pretty good which will be key versus this Wash. defense that can win this game by themselves. I feel like the NFC East is going to come down to the last week, for that to happen the Panthers have to "dominate the foe."

17-12 ATS[9-4]  ML[8-8]  7.584

Cowboys vs. Giants ML(+110) 1 unit

Cowboys have been a bit of a roll and the Giants have been slumping. So the Cowboys opened up as a 3.5 dog before they beat the Eagles and now are a slight favorite  mind you the G-men lost to a team(Ravens) they were suppose to and didn't cover but spread wise it was less than a TD. So were did the 4-5 points come from and they also are banged up in the defensive backfield. They still are one of the worst teams against the rush while the Giants are just outside the top 10. Cowboys have cleaned up the mess they have made of the season as of late but I think it comes to an end in NY. Danny Dimes going to have to perform to give himself and his team a chance at the playoffs.

Remember that time that some of the lesser known 86' Giants got together and made Super Bowl video ala the Bears? Me neither here's proof that it happened though.

Dolphins @ Bills ML(+108) 1 unit

Dolphins need this win to get in the playoffs but it looks like Buffalo is not going to lie down for them on their home field. Bills are going to start J.Allen and the other starters for this game against the Dolphins.

Bills are 8-1 in the last nine games and that one loss was a Hail Mary loss to the Cardinals in AZ. That is what we call going on a heater folks. Don't see no reason for them to stop it they still can get home field for at least two playoff games if they win today which I'm sure they want to. 

Dolphins are starting Tua in a big game today not saying he will not perform but the Bills are inside the top 10 in defensive QB efficiency, yards allowed passing and against the run. If he does struggle their will be nobody to really turn to other than Jake Rudock.

"Buffalo is gonna be talking proud after this one."

Regular Season 19-12  ATS[9-4]  ML[10-8]  9.684 units

Pretty good season with all things considered, I'm going to see if I can continue it going into the playoffs. I struggled last year in the playoffs I got all of it back and then some in the SB.

Ravens(-3) @ Titans 1.09 units @ (-118)

Balty been hot since the loss to the Steelers in Nov. Yes most of the teams were bad teams minus the Browns, but they handled their business and have made it to the playoffs. "The Bad" first, they rely on the run a lot 56.85% of their plays are runs most in the NFL versus last in pass attempts. LJ has struggled in the playoffs but I think that narrative may change this year.

"The Good" when the run is going there is no stopping them at that point. It opens the pass because teams have to commit more guys to the run thus opening up space in the secondary for LJ to pass. No need to be accurate passing when you get 1 on 1 deep posts and go routes just throw it and and let the WR or TE go get it and make a play. Titans defense is terrible this year it's going to be hard for them to stop them. Like the Ravens the offense revolves around Henry and the run game and most of the offense is predicated on what he does. The Ravens defense looks good stat wise but they have played some offensively challenged teams this year. 

Ravens will make the adjustments from that game they lost in OT vs. the Titans. Titans can't create enough havoc to disrupt the Ravens offense thus LJ will be up to task to move on in the playoffs for the first time in his career and also stick it to the "Madden Jinx".

Rams(+3.5) @ Seahawks 1 unit; possible ML if Goff is named starter

Let's look at the line first because in the end we're betting numbers not teams honestly that goes for that team above too ^^^^^^^^. Seahawks opened up as a 4.5 point favorite moved back a point to 3.5 and the Rams still have not named a starter. I know it's hard to calculate HFA in this Covid season but still they have this game as a toss up on neutral field which this will be on pretty much with nobody in the stands if we us the standard 3 points. Speaking of the QB, Goff is injured he was limited at practice Wed. Stop me if you heard this one before QB has bad performances, gets beaten down physically, and possibly mentally, and everybody has written said QB off. QB proceeds to prove the doubters wrong the first chance he gets. I think this were we are at with Goff a crossroads/statement game for him he starts. If not they still have a good run game 126 ypg. and a great defense to rely on.

Seahawks have a pretty big injury themselves with Jamal Adams shoulder injury he will play but will he stay on the field the whole game. He's their sack leader with 9.5 from the secondary. Even with the 46 sacks on the season they still gave up 285 ypg in the air. The defense picked it up after they figured out how to use Adams after being near the bottom for a chunk of the season. You know what your going to get with Wilson but the Seattle run game also picked it up after lagging in the early part of the season. 

Both teams are good against the run and at getting pressure. Seahawks have the advantage at QB but I think people are writing off Goff a little to early. Seahawks have been known to play a lot of games close to the vest. I'll take Goff to "Ram It" to his naysayers.

Innuendos and *pause* moments a plenty in this one. What would you expect from Madame Ram's team.

Playoffs 2-0  ATS(2-0)  1.833 units

Buccaneers(+3.5) @ Saints  1.25 units @ (-125)

I'm guessing 2021 is going to be like 2020 as the Browns rudely bounced the Steelers out , oh well didn't lose any money and I can truely bet the games with no routing interest. Let's bet some numbers 

The Saints are coming off a win versus the struggling Bears where they slept walked through a good chunk of the game. I know the WFT had a worse record but the Bears might of been the worst playoff team this season. The Saints just don't seem to be at their best form right now.

The Bucs on the other hand seem to be peaking at the right point. It took a while for Brady and Arians to get the offense clicking with A.Brown but they are rolling now. Many will point out that they did not cover versus Washington(depending on when you got the line) while NO did but, lets face it TB was in control of the game from beggining while it was still a game in the Super Dome late in the 3rd qt. Saints are looking for the sweep but this game looks like it will be a lot different than the previous two. Like I said earlier W1 the Bucs were still finding themselves W9 or 10(forgot) they had just gotten AB. Don't think Brady has been beaten three times in a season by the same team. N.O. is a good  team but to beat the Bucs three time with the players T.B. has is a tall order. Possible ML also on this game. "Hey Hey Tampa Bay get ready to shine."

Bring back the "Creamsicle jersey's!"

Playoffs 3-0 ATS(3-0)  2.833 units

Bills ML(+130) @ Cheifs 1.25 units

We've seen enough of both teams to have an idea of what to expect out of these two come Sunday night and looking at the threads you guys have already discussed how the Bils are a covering machine and the Cheifs are surprisingly not, especially the back half of the year. I've seen you guys have already broken down the Mahomes injury also. Here's my take on it and why I'm taking Buffalo.

Once again I'm going to look at the opening line and go from there, it was 2.5(Sportsinsights) Cheifs as a favorite with QB position being a undecided. I feel like I've done this before oh yeah LA @ Sea. Jay Glazer has reported that Mahomes "should be OK" for Sunday which means the line should go higher with him being starting at QB. I've seen someone say 5pts more to the spread which most top QB's are worth on a spread. So now where talking 7-8 pont spread, if I can get 6.5 and up I'm taking the spread also. More people will also be going with the Cheifs just because of Mahomes being penciled in as a starter which ML wise the Cheifs are being bet out of the gate. How come a team that was a TD dog(under totally different circumstances) is now only FG favorite. Let's face it if their was any chance Mahomes wasn't playing they would have waited to see if he was playing before putting out a line. The sparead is being bet pretty even, but I beleive and I'm guessing that the Cheifs have more futures and exotics on them. The Bills have been hot and KC have been almost going the motions, so to speak with their play. Buffalo has been getting doubted throughout the playoffs, Colts were suppose to beat them, then the Ravens were because Indy ran all on them. So why wouldn't people doubt them one more time versus the SB Champs? I'm taking the Bills early with the slight chance Mahomes might not be 100% or best/worst case scenario depending on what side your on, he doesn't play or finish the game. I just got a strange feeling about this one, if I could only put it into words...........

This ones for the Buffalo girls

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