False hope reverse jinx NFL picks

Made some early bets in CFB this year during the height of the Pandemic. I was confident the games were going to get played, until maybe a month ago and as soon as I let my guard down and let doubt settle in, every school was like yeah getting back at it on this date(insert date). 

Here's my picks

Week 1 Raiders ML(-112) @ Panthers  1 unit

Week 7 49er's(-1) @ Patriots  1.5unit

Patriots coming off is probably not wise to go against but this is going to be different team plus Jimmy G's return to Foxboro, I'm sure he's going to want to do well. I'll have some more picks for other weeks during the season in these summer months.

Oh yeah I forgot why am I even betting these games cause they will not get played because of Corona, or the riots, or nobody will be able to afford a television to watch or go to the games or something why even bother. 

I just wrote up 5 pages of analysis on the Raiders/Panthers game for my readers. You were smart to get it early. I think money will come in on the Raiders and push the line to 2 or 3. With 3 points, I will take a shot with Carolina.

Ravens @ Steelers(+2.5) 1.5 units at (-110) Thanksgiving Night

HOMER PICK ALERT

I'm real good at betting Steelers games and I feel like this will be the Steelers biggest game of the upcoming season. Don't have the numbers on me but the Steelers as an underdog or PK at home has cashed more than it's lost over the past couple of years. Both teams should be at the top of the division when this game is played and I'm hoping to beat the line when the in season line comes out. 

Like the raiders pick sir

Titans @ Broncos ML(+150) 1 unit

Von Miller is on IR and the TE whose name I'm not going to try to spell is also on it but still I believe the Broncos are in better condition than the Titans who have at least 5 players out for this game. I still believe this defense can perform well against this Titan offense. Broncos are live short home dog in this one.

Week 1 1-1 -.10 units

Week 2 

Bills @ Dolphins(+5) 1u @ +105 odds, ML(+195) .5u

The Bills have won 5 of the past 6 games played between each other, Fitzpatrick lost both matchups vs his former team, and the season has started somewhat like last season with the Dolphins run defense giving up a lot yards on the ground in the first game. So why bet them? I know its only week two but this is a big game for a young team like this if the want a run at the playoffs. Yes they have shown issues vs. mobile QB's and Allen is a mobile QB. The Bills won and covered last week but they were not dominant in the run game and mostly benefited from the Jets futility in the 1H. Bills have two starting LB's out for this game, look for the Phins to take advantage this.

Week 3 0-0   Total 2-0 ATS  0-2 ML +.44

Browns(+3.5) @ Cowboys 1u @ +105 :ML(+165) .5u

The Browns have the 3rd ranked run offense and 5th ranked run defense which should help them out vs. Dallas. The secondary is banged up but it seems like their secondary is always banged up going back to last year. Can Prescott take advantage? We will see but, the Cowboys are banged up to on the line and even though they have Elliot at RB they are struggling in the run department this year. I like Clevetown in this one especially when every body seems to be backing Jerry's Boys. For you Yinzers that think I'm turning to the darkside.. nah I'm still going to make fun of are Rust Belt brethren.

Vikings(+6.5) @ Seahawks  1.05u @ (-115)

Neither team is as good or bad as record. Vikings may be starting to find themselves.

Should be Oilers(+3.5) @ Old Oilers 1.25 units

On paper Titans win this game easily buuuut, right now Titans injury list is long and a short time to prepare for this is a bad recipe for them. Texans seem focused to try and save the season with Crennel as coach. This is a tread lightly game, under any other circumstance I would not bet this game. But as stated above I'm going with Houston.

Cowboys ML(-108) @ Generic Name  1.08 units

Redskins have the better defense and that's about were their advantages begin and end. Dont know what the attendance rules are in the DMV area but even when stadiums could be filled to capacity the Cowboys would have a nice amount of fans there. Merica's Team got embarrassed on MNF and I was close to wagering with them trying to chase my loss on Sunday and glad I didn't. Backups tend to do better when they are just thrown into the game then when they have time to prepare as the opponent has the same advantage of getting a game plan together against them. Dallas' offense with Prescott was a gift and a curse they had a quick strike ability and he was on his way to a career season but those quick strikes and possessions lead to the defense not getting rest. I believe the Cowboys scale the playbook down with Dalton, get the O-line together and we get a little more Zeke and the run game.

If I'm so are couple of more people cause that line has been dropping since its opened at -5.5 and crossed -3 and is at -1.5 as I'm typing this.

How do they cowboys get their o line together when everyone is hurt?

Good point,I believe two or three linemen out for the game and thats not counting the ones from previous weeks. I beleive lineman in and out the lineup effect the pass protection more than the run game. Thats why I said the need to scale back the offense its easier to be aggresive getting off the ball then working as unit in pp.

Seahawks @ Cardinals ML(+163) 1u

The Cards have the better defense as the Seahawks have the next to last rated defense in the league. They also have the best run game in this matchup as they run for 161 ypg. AZ has not won at home against Seattle since 2012 and they are the most penalized team in the NFL guess who's next to last? Thats right Seattle. Hopefully I get a focused Cardinals team and they snap the streak at home.

7-4  ATS[5-1]  ML[2-3]  4.593 units

Chargers @ Broncos ML(+150) 1u

Halfway through the season and I'm going back to team I backed in week 1. The Broncos have not won a game in at home in 2020 partly because their schedule is brutal. They have had to play KC, TB,  and TEN so far at home. This maybe the best chance to reward the little bit of fans that are allowed to show up to games. These two are similar in a lot of statistical categories, once again the Broncos are in little better shape than LAC. Would feel a lot better about this if Lindsey would play, the offense seems to click better with him in the lineup. 

8-4  ATS[5-1]  ML[3-3]  6.093 units

Raiders ML(+102) @ Chargers 1u

Raiders need to win games like these if they want to make it to the playoffs. They just pulled off a hard fought win vs the Browns and now they come back to the coast and play their rival LAC. The Chargers are reeling after blowing another double digit lead. It's a very talented team but there seems to be some issue with this in closing games. Hopefully the Raiders don't get behind and I won't have to deal with that issue again*(see last pick). I'll take plus money in road game that's not really a road game against a struggling team.

Broncos ML(+175) @ Falcons 1u

Broncos have a couple of players that are expected to come off the Covid injury list at the most crucial part of their season. Falcons have struggled all season, which is a surprise because if you look at the stats this is not 2-6 team. Be that as it may they are a team not heading for the playoffs. The Broncos are 2-1 on the road this year and have played solid in the 1pm games.. Lindsey had full participation in practice on Friday. When he plays Denver has an actual running attack.  I'll take Denver to get back .500% after a horrible start of the season.

9-5  ATS[5-1]  ML[4-3]  6.113 units 

Football Team(+3.5) @ Lions 1 unit

Man that's still weird to call Washington FB team anyways FBT is still in the hunt for the division thus in the hunt for the playoffs. Lions have Stafford as a go today but he doesn't seem like he's 100%. The Lions have gotten worse on defense under Patricia and even with FBT's struggles on offense I can see them having some success and putting enough points on the board with Smith at QB. The Lions have won 3 in row at home vs. Wash. with the last win being 2008. I'm going to play it safe and take the points with lesser of two evils.

hello this is gutterrat  how do i collect my winnings

Oh I must be blessed gutterrat showed up in my thread he posts once a year and of all places he showed up here, now onto the pick.

Packers @ Colts ML(-120) 1.2 units

Made this bet last night but didn't want to post amongst the Card vs Seahawks talk and the line jumped from 1.5 to 2.5 in a matter of time. Colts have won two in a row while the Packers come off a lackluster performance vs. Jax. I believe this is a good match-up for the Colts as most indoor/turf teams are designed for speed and grass teams are built to be physical and try to win the line of scrimmage. Indy will be up for the challenge as their defense is tops overall and great against the run and pass. Packers are good road team, with only one loss so far. Colts can put a lil room versus Titans for the AFC South with a win. Colts defense will be too much.

11-5  ATS[6-1]  ML[5-4] corrected  8.023 units 

Texans @ Lions ML(+107) 1 unit

Tread lightly game. This one is personal, how many of you guys remember the last time these two played on Thanksgiving? The refs made sure to come through on the giving part by giving the Texans 6 points and saving them from punting on a possession. Ruined my whole Thanksgiving I think it was the same lineup as it was today with the Cowboys vs Red... I mean Washington. Was going to bet that game next had the Lions held on but it wasn't meant to be. Felt like I got robbed, well hopefully it's time for retribution. No analysis for this game, both teams struggling, Lions are dinged up and all because the Ravens couldn't follow the guide lines I'm stuck betting this game.

Cardinals @ Patriots ML(+106) 1 unit 

A lot of little things that might not be a factor in this game have me leaning Patriots. Fitzgerald being out means somebody has to assume his role I'm guessing it would be C.Kirk which he was last year but moving to that spot at this time of the year might mess with the chemistry a little. 1PM start, yes I know they had one earlier this year versus the Jets but its almost December those morning/afternoons are whole lot chillier and uncomfortable than in October or anything before that. This is a classic clash in styles that I mentioned in the Colts vs. Packers game, Patriots(control the line of scrimmage and clock) vs. Cardinals(play fast and loose; more plays they run better chance they have of winning). I believe Sony Michel is back for this game so that should help out the cause here for the Patriots.

Remember when the Bears kicked the sh!t out of NE. First Super Bowl I remember watching, good times. Nice rebuttal to the Super Bowl Shuffle    

Bears(+7) @ Packers 1 unit(+114)

Two ways to look at this, the Bears have sans the Rams game; have not had a game decided by more than one score. So they are either due to have a two score game or continue status quo. The Packers have the ability to blow them out, for that to happen Rodgers has to have a big game. The biggest strength on the Bears is their pass defense. Vice Versa the Packers have a great run defense and the Bears have struggled to run the ball all year. "Not so Punky QB" (Foles) gives way to Tribusky for this game, I don't think this will be too much for him to handle as QB tonight. The Bears don't have too many games they can lose before they get knocked out of playoff contention. They have scrapped all year I don't see why they wouldn't here versus their biggest rival. Bear Down you Chicago Bear....backers

12-7 ATS[6-2]  ML[6-5]  7.085 units

Saints @ Falcons ML(+128)  1 unit

Couple of weeks back I went against ATL and it blew up in my face as I went to the Bronco well one to many times and they beat them pretty good. Even then I knew the Falcons were a sneaky good team as there were some stats that showed they weren't as bad as their record at the time, just some tough breaks. This week though I see this as a good match-up versus the Saints especially on defense for the Falcons even though they're near the bottom in defense. Most of the yards given up are in the air. Falcons run defense is 5th in the league. The Saints ran for over 200 yards but Hill only went 9-16 for 78 yards. N.O. went in conservative versus the QB-less Broncos. Maybe we finally can see what Hill can do as a QB?, One thing for sure that game-plan is not going to work vs.AT(hopefully no L). I got to see it before I believe it; if Hill leads them to victory so be it, if they run like last week so be it too. This Falcon team is 2 legit 2 tank especially after seeing them last week at home vs the Raiders.

Bills ML(-105) vs. 49er's 1 unit

Bill's will want to keep that game cushion on Mia. especially with a big game versus the Steelers next week. The 9er's have the advantage on defense, but will their offense do enough to win this game? Both teams mediocre running the ball this year but the Bills have the advantage at QB. Even if Jimmy G was healthy I would still give them an advantage at QB. Two of SF's corners(K.Williams and J.Taylor) will miss this game. This will be the Bills second time playing at the Cardinals Stadium wile the AZ divisional rivals(49ers) will return here in the last week. The Bills lost on a miracle catch by D.Hopkins vs AZ about two weeks ago, hopefully they get the result that got snatched away this week.