Posted:
#26
What books are you guys using for the draft. Haven’t used dot com site in a while. Just bookies
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Draft Plays?
Posted:
#28
I think something may have leaked somewhere related to Turner. I've been tracking the odds fluctuations relevant to the DL/EDGE markets constantly today.
This morning the DL/EDGE market seemed to be roughly equal between Turner/Latu/Murphy, but in the afternoon started skewing towards Murphy to where he was even favored by a decent margin over Turner and Latu on some sites. Just checked now and am seeing Turner down to even/minus odds with a good lead on Latu and Murphy again.
Gonna do some searching and see if I find anything driving the odds shift. Hopefully some people got some Turner when I mentioned it earlier; the odds were high!
He was showing around 30% implied odds to go #8 this morning but is now hovering around 45-55% depending on which site you look at.
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Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by Romans12:
@dubz4dummyz Joe Burrow was in the same situation as Daniels and that turned out pretty well. A great QB prospect makes the talent around him better which Burrow & Daniels did. Maye has the size, arm that you look for in a QB. He struggled to read defenses quickly and didn't make the talent around him better in my opinion. If he could sit and learn for a couple of years like Jordan Love I think he could be ok. That isn't going to happen with him projected to go 2 or 3. In my opinion Daniels & Penix are the 2 most NFL ready QB's in this draft.
@dubz4dummyz Joe Burrow was in the same situation as Daniels and that turned out pretty well. A great QB prospect makes the talent around him better which Burrow & Daniels did. Maye has the size, arm that you look for in a QB. He struggled to read defenses quickly and didn't make the talent around him better in my opinion. If he could sit and learn for a couple of years like Jordan Love I think he could be ok. That isn't going to happen with him projected to go 2 or 3. In my opinion Daniels & Penix are the 2 most NFL ready QB's in this draft.
Same situation but 2 completely different QBs style wise. Burrow was a gun-slinger stand in there take a hit, pocket QB who could get you yards with his feet in a pinch....Daniels is a dual-threat, scare you with his legs, apparently doesn't really throw over middle of the field...
I guess Im saying Burrow was a better prospect coming out
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Posted:
#31
@boro33
No problem man! Love following the draft, have worked on it consistently over the last few years and averaged a nice little bit of profit! Even spent the last few weeks rewriting my codebase to be more reusable for the future, and to better archive information so I can backtest more effectively.
I thought I posted about this earlier, but it looks like the odds shift might've been driven by Daniel Jeremiah's mock dropping this evening. He's considered one of the more in-the-loop analysts, and correctly predicted the Texans trade up to 3 for Will Anderson last year.
One interesting wrinkle in his mock is that he has the Chargers taking Latham at 5. I even see Latham as the favorite right now to go at #5 on betmgm! I understand the premise of them taking Latham/Fuaga (getting a right tackle), but I think they'd be morons to do it at 5 when they should have trade partners interested in Nabers/Odunze.
If Jeremiah heard something about the Chargers wanting to go Latham or Fuaga, I think a sneakily likely outcome is them trading back to 9 with Chicago for a day 2 pick, who I think would jump at the chance to lock in Odunze. I wish I could parlay Nabers/Odunze at 5 with Fuaga/Latham at 9! I might throw a buck on Latham and Fuaga at 9 regardless; 20:1 and 26:1 respectively on Fanduel right now.
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Posted:
#33
Ended up adding a little bit on these on fanatics, it had similar lines to fanduel for Odunze and Latham but Fuaga's was almost double.
- Odunze to be pick #5 (31.0 odds) - $20 to pay $620
- Fuaga to be pick #9 (36.0 odds) - $17.14 to pay $617.04
- Latham to be pick #9 (21.0 odds) - $30 to pay $630
Was hoping to spread $100 + the $50 free bet (never used fanatics before) against those, but was capped at those bet sizes. Ended up using the free bet and leftovers of the $100 deposit on:
- JJMC to be pick #11 (4.50 odds) - $32.86 to pay $147.87
- Dallas Turner to be pick #8 (3.25 odds) - $0 to pay $112.50
I now have 3.68 net odds across my separately-timed bets on Turner to be pick 8 lol
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Posted:
#34
@dubz4dummyz
Maye in my opinion. Here’s why: when you look at improvement of a Teams overall off from the 2nd week of the cfb season to the 13th week ultimately Nc was ranked 3rd a major jump for Maye and the total off. Williams will go first but the off. for usc didn’t improve was 9 to begin with was 9th the 13th week. History has shown improvement for total off is a key stat to consider. Purdy was 103 ended at 40 - improvement is what you want to see for the total off . IMHO.
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Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by Mitchieboi:
@boro33] this One interesting wrinkle in his mock is that he has the Chargers taking Latham at 5. I even see Latham as the favorite right now to go at #5 on betmgm! I understand the premise of them taking Latham/Fuaga (getting a right tackle), but I think they'd be morons to do it at 5 when they should have trade partners interested in Nabers/Odunze. If Jeremiah heard something about the Chargers wanting to go Latham or Fuaga, I think a sneakily likely outcome is them trading back to 9 with Chicago for a day 2 pick, who I think would jump at the chance to lock in Odunze. I wish I could parlay Nabers/Odunze at 5 with Fuaga/Latham at 9! I might throw a buck on Latham and Fuaga at 9 regardless; 20:1 and 26:1 respectively on Fanduel right now.
@boro33] this One interesting wrinkle in his mock is that he has the Chargers taking Latham at 5. I even see Latham as the favorite right now to go at #5 on betmgm! I understand the premise of them taking Latham/Fuaga (getting a right tackle), but I think they'd be morons to do it at 5 when they should have trade partners interested in Nabers/Odunze. If Jeremiah heard something about the Chargers wanting to go Latham or Fuaga, I think a sneakily likely outcome is them trading back to 9 with Chicago for a day 2 pick, who I think would jump at the chance to lock in Odunze. I wish I could parlay Nabers/Odunze at 5 with Fuaga/Latham at 9! I might throw a buck on Latham and Fuaga at 9 regardless; 20:1 and 26:1 respectively on Fanduel right now.
Jeremiah has been wrong with the last 5 Chargers picks in round 1.
2023: Michael Mayer
2022: Kaiir Elam
2021: Jaylen Waddle
2020: T*a
2019: Rock Ya-Sin
He's a Chargers fan, btw.
There's been a lot of smoke regarding Latham at 5. And I agree that it would be stupid to grab him there. (Just trade down if a trade offer is there ) But I really think it's just a smokescreen.
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Posted:
#37
@iConsciousness
Oh totally, definitely can't trust that his mock is extremely accurate with respect to getting picks right up and down the board.
The thing I'm more interested in is that he seems like he might be plugged in on the "important" picks. He was the only person last year who called the Texans trading up for Will Anderson Jr. The year before he correctly Pickett being the first QB off the board all the way down at 20 when people had willis going top 10.
I think he probably heard something about LAC wanting to go with a non-Alt OT with their first pick, I just believe that they would do so after trading down instead of sticking and picking at 5. It's just a waste of value; if they wanted Fuaga or Latham they are all but guaranteed to be there at 9. Why not take literally anything that's offered to you to trade down and still get who you want, even if it's only a 3rd round pick next year or something?
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Posted:
#38
Biggest (relevant) overnight odds moves, Draftkings:
Increase in implied odds:
1. Michael Penix 3rd QB selected 85% more likely (but still a longshot): 76.0 -> 41.0
2. JC Latham 1st OL selected 56% more likely: 3.6 -> 2.3
3. Nabers to be a top 5 pick 34% more likely: 4.3 -> 3.2
4. Alt to be #6 pick 33% more likely: 12.0 -> 9.0
5. Patrick Paul to be selected in the 1st round 31% more likely: 5.25 -> 4.0
6. Dallas Turner to be #9 pick 30% more likely: 13.0 -> 10.0.
7. Michael Penix to be a top 10 pick 25% more likely: 6.0 -> 4.8
8. Xavier Worthy to be selected in the 1st round 18% more likely: 1.42 -> 1.2
9. JJMC to be a top 5 pick 14% more likely: 16.0 -> 14.0
Decrease in implied odds:
1. Joe Alt 1st OL selected 14% less likely: 1.29 -> 1.50
2. Rome Odunze U8.5 5% less likely: 1.71 -> 1.80
How to take advantage of this? IMO, load up on Alt 1st OL selected.
The Latham buzz is obviously driven by Daniel Jeremiah's mock. I think the changes in his and Alt's odds to be 1st OL taken is an overreaction; given the going price for Latham/Fuaga, there's very little reason for LAC to stick and pick one of them at 5 when they can get a "free" trade down and still get their guy at 9, or 11, etc. If you feel confident that TEN would still go Alt over the other linemen at 7 (you should, IMO) then Alt 1st OL is absolutely crushing right now @ 1.50/-200.
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Posted:
#42
@Eddy_Winslow
Not that I don't think the Chargers like Latham, it's just that it would be a terrible, fireable pick to take him at 5. There's just so few scenarios where they end up taking Latham at pick 5 that it's not even remotely close to worth it at +250. I'd need at least +1000 to consider it.
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Posted:
#44
@G8RB8
Nice plays!
I have your QB under as the second best position total at current odds (behind OL U9.5), 20% EV or so
Bowers at 10 is still decent, but could've gotten better odds at Fanduel (+210). U11.5/12.5 seem good at their respective odds too. You actually got good odds on that one, so you're probably in the 10% range.
I have the Kool-Aid under as losing 20ish percent though.
And I didn't bother with analyzing RB markets at all
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Posted:
#45
RB market gives you something to root for tomorrow
Obviously 3 QBs are gone first 3 picks. I think it's a really huge dropoff after those 3, and when you're staring at 4th or 5th best QB, there are other better players on the board, you take your chances with a qb in the 2nd rd. I could see a huge gap between 3rd and 4th QB picked. I just hope no one gets antsy and trades back into the first to snag one. I see a bunch of Zach Wilson's within this group.
Bowers is a freak and either Jets take him or someone trades into that pick for him (Colts). I just can't see him not top 10
Kool Aid is a guy that needs to be put into perspective a little. Its not like teams went out and threw at him, and he is big enough to throw some weight around on all the NFL Wr's. I think a GM reads between the lines and snags him up.
Bagel Sandwiches Suck
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