Draft Plays?

Anyone making plays on the draft?

I have about 4500 on it across 70 or so different bets, would love some discussion here!

@Mitchieboi

 Maye or daniels 2nd overall?

@dubz4dummyz

 Been looking long and hard into this one. I want to pound Daniels. Can't see the Skins passing up on him.

A QB that crushed it in the SEC is much more impressive than dominating the ACC.  Im looking to walk all over the strip

and spread 5-10K on Daniels to go #2 especially at -140. What are your thoughts?

@fitchris562

 no idea what washington wants to do but personally I would take Maye

Daniels is 23 with 2 NFL WRs, he should have looked good and put up those stats

Maye is 21 and played with crap

Better to take the higher upside IMO

but what Washington does....no clue....they might love Daniels since its gonna be a Kliff Kingsbury offence

Also like 

Mims u22.5 @2.18/+118...im super high on mims

Kool-aid u28.5 @2.00/+100...thought this was bit high

Latham o14.5 @2.40/+140...im lower on Latham than most

Penix u32.5 @1.50/-200...guessing team wants 5th year option 

Also like

Eagles 1st pick

CB 2.40/+140

OL 2.70/+170

Should be one of those above, prob a 5% chance they go DL

I haven't messed with trying to pick #2 at all.

The "big" exact pick plays I have are:

1. Nabers at #6: 2.56 - $109.59 to pay $280.59

2. Odunze at #6: 5.50 - $23.57 to pay $129.64

3. Alt at #7: 1.89 - $184.52 to pay $347.90

4. Turner at #8: 3.19 - $230.68 to pay $736.50

5. Nabers at #9: 13.00 - $11.29 to pay $146.76

6. Odunze at #9: 4.20 - $15.61 to pay $65.55

7. Bowers at #10: 3.33 - $172.40 to pay $574.42

8. Odunze at #10: 8.00 - $26.91 to pay $215.25

I say "big" because I actually have 20 of these; most of the ones I didn't list don't have much likelihood of hitting or are otherwise longshots (e.g. $6 on penix to go #6 at 150:1 odds)

Picks for players to go in the top 10:

1. Bowers: 2.60 - $184.99 to pay $480.58

2. Turner: 1.76 - $146.64 to pay $258.60

3. Alt: 1.13 - $54.36 to pay $61.15

Not gonna list odds/numbers, but I have:

1. 1st round OLs U9.5

2. 1st round DEF players O10.5

3. 1st round OFF players U21.5

4. 1st round WRs U6.5

5. 1st round CBs U5.5

6. 1st round RBs U0.5

7. 1st round PAC12 players O7.5

8. 1st round ACC players U4.5

9. 1st round SEC players U9.5

10. 1st round BIG 12 players U3.5

Don't feel like listing them out, but have plays on 21 different draft position O/Us (e.g. Alt U7.5), some position props like Wiggins 3rd CB taken, Turner 1st DL/EDGE taken.

I also have $570.11 to pay $1522.18 @ 2.67 odds for Alt to be the first OL taken + MHJ first WR + Turner first DL/EDGE.

If you look at pick #8 odds, Latu is being way overvalued, even being favored in some spots; highly recommend taking a look at Turner #8 at +200 or better, or Turner first DL/EDGE at +100 or better

@Mitchieboi

 Yessir good luck. Looks like you got a few outs on odunze and nabers. Looks good if titans go alt and falcons go turner

Curious to see your draft position O/U

@Mitchieboi

 Surprised you not on penix 1st round or u32.5 or penix to go 13th or penix to go 23rd

I do think Penix will go in the first round, but there's not enough of an edge (in my opinion, and in my model's opinion) to actually bet on it.

I gotta give it to Daniels.

The first two QB’s taken will have Heisman hardware.

Maye coming from the ACC is not as impressive. Hope the Skins front office have nightmares of taking Mitch Trubisky 2.0 and back off. Klingsbury has to have a running QB to run his style of play.

They already have a running backup QB in Mariota. Now Daniels to fit the offense.

@dubz4dummyz

 Somebody must have leaked some intel.

Because JDaniels is almost a lock now to go #2. Now it’s -450 last week was -140. lol 

@fitchris562

 Ya. Gotta wait til tomorrow but all the smoke is wash wants a mobile qb for kliff offence

Dallas turner dropping. Murphy getting lot of buzz as 1st defender

The Turner situation is interesting. I've been following the discourse around him closely as I'm pretty heavily leveraged on him across a few different bet classes:

1. Turner #8 pick - $230 to pay $736 @ 3.19 odds (available @ 3.5 currently)

2. Turner Top 10 pick - $146 to pay $259 @ 1.76 odds (available @ 2.0 odds currently)

3. Turner U9.5 - $68 to pay $140 @ 2.05 odds (available @ 2.30 odds currently)

4. Turner 1st DL/EDGE - $94 to pay $180 @ 1.91 odds (available @ 2.75 odds currently)

5. Joe Alt 1st OL + Turner 1st DL/EDGE + MHJ 1st WR - $570 to pay $1522 @ 2.67 odds (available @ 3.31 odds currently)

Bit of an analysis:

I think the risk of the Falcons going to a different defensive player (Murphy or Latu) instead of Turner at 8 is overblown. My understanding is that ATL has a very strong need for EDGE, but their top two DLs are serviceable. For a win-now team almost certainly making a defensive pick, they need someone who will be on the field the majority of snaps instead of on a rotation. So in my mind, that soft rules out Murphy at 8. Not impossible if they love Murphy and think he's by far BPA, but I just don't think he's the pick.

Now for Turner vs Latu:

Turner is seen as the high-risk, high-reward prospect. He's athletically gifted, produced good results in the SEC (lot of Will Anderson comps, justified or not), is comfortable dropping back frequently (which he will likely have to do a lot in ATL's scheme), and generally is thought to still have room to grow. However, that's also a knock on him; he struggles with his hands, isn't very strong in the run game, and tends to lean on a small move set relying on his athleticism and strength. He will likely need to gain some weight in the NFL.

Latu is seen as the lower-risk, lower-reward prospect. Less athletically gifted (and this shows up in his combine results, go compare them), produced good results but generally against weaker competition, and has serious injury history - a neck injury that kept him out of the game long term and was thought to have ended his career. As mentioned, Raheem Morris drops back his 3-4 OLBs at a very high rate; this is something that fits Turner much more than Latu.

Personally, I'd be shocked if Latu is the pick at 8, here's why. At least one of Odunze/JJMC will be available at 8, and should have teams willing to trade up for them. If the Falcons do like Latu better than Turner or have them similarly ranked, they should be able to find a trade partner between 11-15 so they could pick up extra picks and get one of Turner, Latu, or Verse. Turner is simply the only EDGE that is even worth considering taking in the top 9. Note that I said top 9, because I think if a trade does happen for the remainder of Odunze/JJMC, Chicago runs to the podium to pick Turner at 9 (as the first DL/EDGE) anyways.

I've already used all my money I have allocated for the draft, but if I had some left, I'd be absolutely SMASHING Turner 1st DL/EDGE taken (+175 at Fanduel rn). Falcons might not take him at 8, but Fanduel is pricing him as equally likely to be first DL/EDGE right now as Latu and Murphy, and that's ridiculous.

@dubz4dummyz

 Also like

 Eagles 1st pick

CB 2.40/+140

Philly insider Sal Pal was adamant that Howie is taking a CB with 1st pick and may even trade up.  This would be the first time ever Roseman drafted a DB in the 1st rd.  

@Mitchieboi

 Thoughts on a flyer for Bowers to go to Bears in the 12-1 to 10-1 range ??  

 Kmet is meh met and 12 personnel in that offense get run at a high rate.... what better offensive weapon to pair your young QB with than a future Gronk / Kelce mold TE.  

Odds of this happening would likely mean both Odunze and Nabors are gone at #9....or Bears trade back a few spots.  Trade fireworks should begin after Cards take Marvin Jr. at #4.  

@Mitchieboi

 Lot of smoke flying that atl gonna trade out for a team wanting odunze...I actually think that happens..

either chi moves up to 8 ...could see atl move back from 9 here too potentially

Or nyj move to 8 to leapfrog chi 

Or another team leapfrogs chi and moves to 8

Good luck with turner hope it pans out for ya

@kcblitzkrieg

 Lot of steam that bears highly interested in b.murphy as well...they have sweat at DE and could use a DT

Bowers is a wild card this year imo...if he slides probably stops at 15 to colts

Yeah Murphy is odds on favorite to go to CHI at 9.  Bowers O/U is 11.5 and +350 to Indy if you're interested 

@kcblitzkrieg

 I'd have to run an analysis to confirm, but my gut feeling isn't great. There are scenarios where they consider taking Bowers, but even in those scenarios he's only an option among others. I think it'll be Murphy or Odunze if they stick at 9. A trade down or up is in play too. I think 10:1 isn't enough to take a flyer on Bowers, gut check says I'd need 20 or 30:1

@dubz4dummyz

Agreed, unfortunately not feeling too great about turner at 8 anymore. The likeliest scenario where he goes at 8 involves JJMC falling with all 3 WRs going top 7, and no one being interested in a trade up for JJMC.

I do think Turner will be the first DL/EDGE off the board though! If Odunze falls to 8 and gets taken there, I'd expect turner to go at 9. Fanduel is showing 14:1 on that right now... That's an incredibly good price, worth throwing something at that.

@dubz4dummyz

 Joe Burrow was in the same situation as Daniels and that turned out pretty well. A great QB prospect makes the talent around him better which Burrow & Daniels did. Maye has the size, arm that you look for in a QB. He struggled to read defenses quickly and didn't make the talent around him better in my opinion. If he could sit and learn for a couple of years like Jordan Love I think he could be ok. That isn't going to happen with him projected to go 2 or 3. In my opinion Daniels & Penix are the 2 most NFL ready QB's in this draft.