Posted:
#26
Hi Phixer.. I agree and will answer the call 
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don't get fooled again...week 1
Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:
for the starters - be prepared that this thread will be soon moved to the penalty box under ridiculous pretense that i bash someone.
for the starters - be prepared that this thread will be soon moved to the penalty box under ridiculous pretense that i bash someone.
now - please remember that every "expert" that charges you money for his picks is a cheat. because, otherwise he wouldn't need your money for his picks because he's be making money on his own picks if they'd be winners. like i do.
also do not get fooled by believing someone who wants your money and pretends to be me. like in nba playoffs just few months ago. if you see someone wants your money in my name - do not pay -it is not me
don't get fooled by freely available information about the percentages and the quantities of the bettors on sides, spreads and totals.
don't get fooled by a consensus info available for free. i know what im talking about because for a true info you gotta pay a lots of money and be a member - like myself. i get the right info - always and i pay for it. i am willing to pay for it because it is helpful in determining the outcome by analyzing the big money moves.
and finally - don't fool yourself you can catch vegas off guard. won't happen. you better join vegas than fight them. being on the winning side in a stable fashion means being on vegas side
picks for the week one will be posted here and on my thread at the penalty box
gl tjis season
Was with you on every point until you strayed into the fantasy land of Vegas taking positions in games. Shame. Everything else you said was bang-on and solid.
Best of luck, regardless 
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Posted:
#32
Phixer,
Followed your nba playoff thread closely and was very impressed - with picks of course (around 70% winners!) but also with your fantastic write ups. Do you find nfl to be as much of a strength for you as nba? Either way I'll be watching closely and likely tailing. Thanks so much for your time, effort, and originality.
Followed your nba playoff thread closely and was very impressed - with picks of course (around 70% winners!) but also with your fantastic write ups. Do you find nfl to be as much of a strength for you as nba? Either way I'll be watching closely and likely tailing. Thanks so much for your time, effort, and originality.
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Posted:
#41
If Patterson shuts down Cooks not sure how good the Saints offense will look. First game without J. Graham & no K. Stills to take the top off.
Last year it seems like teams burned Zona def with TE"S. I would think Watson / Hill need to have a pretty nice game for the Saints to score more than 23 unless a pick 6 or special teams scores a TD.
Zona def is very strong at home. Good Luck as I see the over being tough in this one.
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. Helluva run NBA playoffs 
Thanks Phix 
Posted:
#47
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:
....
....
now - please remember that every "expert" that charges you money for his picks is a cheat. because, otherwise he wouldn't need your money for his picks because he's be making money on his own picks if they'd be winners. like i do.
....
don't get fooled by freely available information about the percentages and the quantities of the bettors on sides, spreads and totals.
.....
don't get fooled by a consensus info available for free. i know what im talking about because for a true info you gotta pay a lots of money and be a member - like myself. i get the right info - always and i pay for it. i am willing to pay for it because it is helpful in determining the outcome by analyzing the big money moves.
and finally - don't fool yourself you can catch vegas off guard. won't happen. you better join vegas than fight them. being on the winning side in a stable fashion means being on vegas side
...
just a few quick (I hope) notes.
1. this biz is all about money, not percentages of correct pick. So, there are two distinct activities: picking (handicapping) and trading (actually determining bet size, hedges, exit points, etc.)
there are people who are doing very well (about 60-65 percent) when it comes to determining winning sides, even ATS, but they still manage to lose money because they cannot deal with emotions involved in dealing with money.
someone who can would be better off paying for picks with proven record (one only needs to establish consistency in generating long streaks, either way for a semi competent trader to make money)
2. all publicly available info does have its value. One only needs to identify meta data trends to come up with profitable strategy.
Unless you have doctors/lawyers/team insiders on your payroll, whatever you're paying for is not better than whatever is available on the inet.
3. the mechanics of vegas price generation process are becoming more and more available. it is far from optimal - not may people have mental discipline to take advantage of it, but it is another story.
anyway,
good luck to all.
PS: that bears "over 50" seems to be wrong to me (just my opinion, but after doing dozen of years in chicago i think i know the bears somewhat.)
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Posted:
#48
Another quick question for you Phixer (when you have the time). I know when I followed your NBA playoff thread, you often waited until minutes before tip off to post your picks. I remember you talking about wanting to see what kind of last minute money was coming in on each side. Will it be the case for the NFL that you will often use the same strategy? If so, were you using different information or a different strategy for the picks you released earlier this week? Not asking for you to share every detail, but just curious if all your picks are coming from the same angle.
Thanks again for your time.
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