Posted:
#76
@black_hawk
@crashdavis565
@thegeneral01
@dertydude
0
don't get fooled again...week 1
Posted:
#78
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:
NE Patriots vs PIT Steelers
NE Patriots vs PIT Steelers
I see this game develop a little differently than what I read everywhere in the press. I don't yhink NFL is a forgiving organization when there is a suspicion of cheating they aren't part of. Remember the Saints?
Another angle to my pick is the Big Ben physical health at the beginning of the season. It is always better than later because of the way he commits himself during the whole season.
I also get the great encouragement from the fact that despite the massive support the Patriots get from the public - the line remains the same with a little changes on odds making the Pat supporters to pay a little more for their bets (-120). By the info I get the 69% bets supporting the Pats ATS and 91% bets their money line while the money on ATS is divided evenly (!) and on ML 61% of the money is on Pats. Totals are also demonstrating great discrepancies between the number of the bets and the money. While the money is evenly divided - the bets on total are 67% of all the bets.
This is a 5 Units Play
PIT Steelers +7 +100 500$
that was a push
0-0-1 so far this season
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Posted:
#79
few very interesting observation i like to share with you regarding that opening game:
i was opting two more bets for that game and even prepared the drafts for them but then because of them partially contradicting each other - decided to not to go with them. nevertheless - i did follow closely to grade my own pregame thoughts with those after:
1. as i stated beforehand - the most of the money on this game (over 67% was on the totals and the number of how much was on over and how much was on under became apparent only after the game was over as for the reason i yet have top find out - the source i get my data from couldn't precisely produce the numbers). Looking at the numbers after the game which also include live betting numbers - the picture is as follows:
a. before the game 76% of the bets were on over 50.5. that number changed before the game into 51 fora brief moment and was back at 50.5 before the kick off. but the interesting thing is that the money wise it was 51.03% against 48.07% in favor of under. that is a way big delta between money and the bet amount and usually means some very big amounts of money came in from very few sources who apparently knew what are they doing.
b. after the scoreless 1st quarter when it became clear that the teams are dancing by the tune produced somewhere else than at their locker room -the under bets came to pile up.
c.under was one of the bets i considered heavily and also wrote the post but left it as a draft for a poetic reason of "wanting to enjoy watching the game". that was the last one for this season.
d. my other unpublished and highly "wondered" draft was regarding the decision to go with "over 20.5 team total for the steelers or with over 2.5 td for the steelers which paid almost twice as much than over 20.5 but in the mind of s simple and inexperienced handicapper m looks like "i caught the vegas with the pants down". that precise conclusion that if vegas wants us to think we caught them with their pants down it must not be kosher - that reason prevented me to go with over 2,5 td and once i smell fish -i stay away altogether. and i did although the over 20.5 would be a -120 winner.
so, after watching the game - seeing the first quarter where both teams made sure the do not score and then kicked the butts of all who tried to hedge the overs with ending up precisely at 49 point total also making sure that the spread bets pushed, counting the overall public against the vegas - we have a public winning ml bets most of which are parts of the parlays soon to be .... dealt with on the other sides of parlays, we have public loosing big in totals bets but money wise - vegas must have just saved their skin breaking even. but they took loads of live betting money on the totals and on the spreads when everyone was pounding the pats to destroy pathetically looking steelers who ....ooops... came in through with last second 7 points to complete the whole puzzle. barnum ringlig brothers can be jealous at the precision....
but some asian triads must have taken home loads of money and that is the way it works.
so, much enriched with the knowledge that nothing has changed compared to recent years - we are full of confidence we got them mf's who try to cheat us by the balls.
looking forward for this season
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Posted:
#85
Phixer,
Never been so happy to see another man back and posting in a forum!!! Of course this excludes the times I thought I was communicating with a woman on a forum and it was actually a man....
I've been trailing you for two years now and can't thank you enough!! Great to see you back!
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.
Posted:
#90
Hey bro. I'm kind of a rookie here Hockey is my thing, but I love football. Problem is - I lose my behind at football, haha. (I do pretty well at hockey) So with your help I hope to turn my football picks into winners.
Rock on brother, love your style.
(PS: My Buffalo Bills are going to be a force this season!!) (and yes, I am a fan boy)
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Posted:
#93
BUF Bills vs IND Colts
The season is long enough for me to back up the Colts, but in this particular game everything seems like check in favor of the Bills. Many reasons. The Colts are precisely the team the Bills are fitted to play against. especially at home. The Bills are way more powerful than in our general perception and the line supports that. Issuing -2.5 for the Colts is an invitation to pound the Colts which was widely accepted by the public. Yet - the line remained the same meaning that the money had it's offset effect. In plain English - in order to leave the line as it was released, on ATS 4$ for the Bills had to come in against every $ for the Colts and on ML 1.5$ on the Bills for each $ on the Colts. That's 5.5$ against 2$. Because 80% of the ATS bets are on the Colts and 60% of ML too are on the Colts. Make your math.
Although I believe that the Bills are going to win it big time SU - there is no need to get greedy. I'll hook the half a point and will go for the Bills +3 at -125. I know that sounds a bit stupid, especially to the seasoned folk - but that is the way it is.
Indianapolis Colts team
Who is injured: A. Jones (I-R, Ankle, 2015-09-06), B. Werner (Prob Sun, Knee, 2015-09-12), D. Jackson (Prob Sun, Toe, 2015-09-12), D. Smith (Ques Sun, Undisclosed, 2015-09-11), G. Toler (Out Sun, Neck, 2015-09-12), J. Robinson (Prob Sun, Concussion, 2015-09-12), N. Irving (Prob Sun, Knee, 2015-09-12), R. Mathis (Ques Sun, Achilles, 2015-09-12), S. Moore (Prob Sun, Hip, 2015-09-08), S. Price (Prob Sun, Concussion, 2015-09-12), T. Hilton (Prob Sun, Concussion, 2015-09-08), T. Mitchel (I-R, Shoulder, 2015-09-01), V. Ballard (Out Sun, Hamstring, 2015-09-12)
Buffalo Bills team
Who is injured: C. Clay (Prob Sun, Knee, 2015-09-12), C. Hogan (Prob Sun, Knee, 2015-09-12), J. Wynn (I-R, Knee, 2015-08-18), K. Williams (Prob Sun, Illness, 2015-09-08), L. McCoy (Prob Sun, Hamstring, 2015-09-09), L. McKelvin (I-R, Knee, 2015-09-09), M. Dareus (Elig Week 2, Suspension, 2015-09-01), M. Goodwin (Out Sun, Ribs, 2015-09-09), M. Williams (Prob Sun, Calf, 2015-09-12), P. Harvin (Prob Sun, Hip, 2015-09-10), R. Woods (Prob Sun, Hip, 2015-09-12), S. Watkins (Prob Sun, Hamstring, 2015-09-12), T. Powell (I-R, Knee, 2015-08-18), T. Steward (Out Sun, Knee, 2015-09-10)
This is a 10 units play
BUF Bills +3 -125 1250$
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Posted:
#98
Good luck to you phixer, NFL is so tough to find any edge to beat Vegas, I look forward to gaining that edge reading through your weekly threads. I also think Buffalo is a sneaky play. They are starting Taylor at QB, so most people think hey, Bills will be one dimensional on offense and Colts will easily contain them.
Perhaps that is true to a point, but the weather for this game looks to definitely favor the Bills. Wet, windy conditions should give the better running team an edge, plus the better defensive team could cause some turnovers with the wet ball. All in all, I'm on the Bills as well, ML for me (guess I'm greedy).
Perhaps that is true to a point, but the weather for this game looks to definitely favor the Bills. Wet, windy conditions should give the better running team an edge, plus the better defensive team could cause some turnovers with the wet ball. All in all, I'm on the Bills as well, ML for me (guess I'm greedy).
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