DK NFL Week 4

Preseason: 36-14-1

Regular Season:  13-39

Overall: 49-53-1

if i don't play those dog ml's or double up on some sides i really should be maybe 13 games under .500 instead of 26 games under for regular season, so I am going to make some adjustments here and will be avoiding ML dogs until further notice and just focus only on spreads, maybe try a few totals which i should have done in tonight's game but always tend to overthink playing totals. favorites still edge out the dog by a game again basically almost 55% on the season, straight up they are way beyond butchering the dogs at nearly 75% clip, if they keep this pace which they probably wont that is maybe an 8% increase normally they win outright on 66 to 67% clip. probably the best 3 week start of the season for favorite seasons in my 15 years betting. without further ado, time to start climbing up this big mountain. Feels like a long season already

yea hang in there ravens just collapse as normal  so annoying  ans that rams game ending sheesh

College ranked favorites are having a rough time right now.  To balance this out 

I believe the NFL favorites are doing great.  

At some point in this season it will start flipping but until I see it I’m out.  There is a lack of parody in the NFL.  the data is very inconsistent and weak for the dogs.  

@Digitalkarma

 Keep grinding, it'll turn.

Seahawks -1

Seems like they will be a heavily backed favorite in this one which i would normally shy away from, but feels like times are changing and public wins more nowadays. Aside from that, based on 3 game observation Seahawks are the better team going into this match. You would think Cardinals are "due" to end their 7 game lose streak in the series. However they will probably be without James Connor for the rest of the season and will miss his RedZone production , he always tends to score. Cardinals will be still be scrappy but not enough. I got Seahawks by a TD 

24-17, leaning Under 

GL 

@Digitalkarma

 Like Seattle....looking at Rams. As well....

@Nemesis

Thanks bro yea late game collapses seem to happen more in general these days across all sports. Athletes have gotten softer, just a sign of the times lol

@spottie2935

 Yea I agree with your assessment maybe I should look into college in the interim. I play a few regular season college games every now and then but usually wait for the bowl game. I enjoyed fading ranked teams lol. I remember reading that last season things turned back to normal after week 1 but the favorites went on a midseason tear all the way to the end. Maybe a flip this year as favorites dominate 1H of the season and dogs start barking in the 2H. Sportsbooks profit margin shrank last NFL season for sure from what I read. 

@unplucked_gem

 Thanks brotha, gotta keep fightin 

@Wizerguy

@Fuse

@lmb4321

 Might be going all favorites this week lol 

@saigon

@Digitalkarma

 Favorites 

@Digitalkarma

 Eagles?

@lmb4321

 see that's a good one i would think Eagles avenge all their losses to Tampa Bay. Feels like Tampa is the only team that seems to be the Eagles kryptonite in the playoffs. For whatever reason Hurts has trouble against that team. glad you brought that one up, i have been looking at that one and my first lean and reaction is Tampa to cover

And if my mom had wheels she be a bike lol jk 

Adding...

Steelers +2.5(+100)

Steelers should get back some reinforcements with Joey Porter Jr and Deshon Elliot after being out for 2 weeks, but that may not magically fix their pass defense problems quite yet. At least it's better than nothing. Vikings passing attack is very much limited to Jefferson and not much else. Vikings do have the better balanced team heading into this match but I feel like Tomlin will have his team ready. Steelers are 13-5 before a BYE week. I would have consider playing ML but their defense has potential to allow a late score and blown game. 

Good to see you still posting DK.

Hope all is well there, BOL.

@chillinghard09

 Nice to see you again, been awhile GL 

Ravens -2.5(-115)

Hate to lay the chalk especially with a defense that isn't playing great right now. The juice move force me to play the line early. Lamar has never won in KC. This will be a season-defining digging-deep moment for the Ravens against a team that has haunted them for the past 5 years. One thing I've noticed with the Ravens is if they win on Monday night they fall flat on Sunday but if they lose on Monday they tend to bounce back on Sunday. Mahomes as a dog is scary and there's no way KC can lose 2 straight home games right?  Fortunately, KC has problems of their own too. Hope Ravens offense put up enough points to outlast Mahomes. KC defense will still give Lamar some problems. I have Ravens winning ugly by 3

23-20

Madibukie might be missing for a long time...neck similar to Orr's career ending injury years ago...

Love the Vikings this week Flores D will put a pounding on Rodgers. The under may be a play as well.  No chance I touch the Ravens this week, road dog against Mahomes. 

@bigred84

 Damn. 

@WilliamMunny

 Certainly possible, Vikes defense playing better at the moment gl 

WM    Ravens are favored by 2.5 points......

Bucs +3.5

was thinking about playing ml but laying off those for awhile. maybe Eagles find a way to win again.. Bucs haven't really played anyone worthy this season and could easily be 0-3.. maybe they finally meet their match against Eagles. Baker shredded Eagles secondary last 2 meetings. Not saying he will throw for 350+ yards again but I like that they have a decent running attack with Bucky Irving. Perhaps it will be a close game this time instead of another Bucs blowout