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DK NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP 2017

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Posts: 66

Digitalkarma

Legend

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 57444

Posted: Jan. 22, 2017 - 12:58 AM ET #51

Quote Originally Posted by DrKnoNothing:

Dk i got the same exact superbowl. I got.

GB/Pitt sb51 exact finish at 30/1 got these odd on 01/08

Pitt/GB sb51 exact finish at 35/1 got these odd on 01/08

GB to win the NFC championship at 12/1 got these odd on 11/29

GB to win sb51 at 28/1 got these odds on 11/29

Lets get it.

Nice bud! hope Rodgers brings home the cheddah!

i missed out on those odds, never had much luck with the exact finish props in the past and was content with my other futures. was hesitant about it at first but i feel like it is possible now for GB/Pitt to happen. still predicting a green bay/New england matchup though but i also left the door open for Pittsburgh to rewrite their own fate/history.

as i stated in my prediction thread with my first prediction coming true

prediction #1: there will be one #1 seed(,if possibly not both) that will not make it to the Super Bowl ending three straight seasons where both #1 seeds have made it.

i knew Dallas would be the one to fall. not expecting New England to, but the door is definitely open. if Pats fall it will be a bonus for my prediction, otherwise prediction has been met

GL DrKno!!!

Sip on that plus money honey!

Digitalkarma

Legend

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 57444

Posted: Jan. 22, 2017 - 12:59 AM ET #52

Quote Originally Posted by Macwestie1:

GL sunday Digitalkarma

good luck Mac, woof!

Sip on that plus money honey!

Digitalkarma

Legend

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 57444

Posted: Jan. 22, 2017 - 1:07 AM ET #53

az49erdog

yep. thats how i see it too. i think Ben is going to be a much different QB than the one the Patriots faced in the last AFC Championship game 12 years ago. it was a young rookie and reckless Big Ben then and now a more mature and wiser Ben who knows he doesnt have many chances like these left. i think he'll make the most of this opportunity and keep it close!

glyde

thanks man. good luck guys.

Sip on that plus money honey!

DrKnoNothing

Prospect

Joined: Jul, 2016

Posts: 214

Posted: Jan. 22, 2017 - 8:13 AM ET #54

Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:

az49erdog

glyde

thanks man. good luck guys.

And big ben has a ruuning back that has rushed for over a thousand yards in the last 8 games. Solid QB, the best RB in the game, and a WR that can dominate. Sounds like trouble for NE.

RLeith35

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 59231

Posted: Jan. 22, 2017 - 11:04 AM ET #55

Here are the offensive points per game rank of the New England opponents:

Remember 32 is the worst:

32 LA Rams
31 Cleveland
30 NY Jets
30 NY Jets
29 Houston
29 Houston
27 San Francisco
24 Cincinnati
22 Denver
21 Baltimore
18 Seattle
17 Miami
17 Miami
11 Pittsburgh
10 Buffalo
10 Buffalo
6 Arizona

So they had 7 of 17 games vs the 5 worst offenses in the league (41.1% of their entire schedule)

They had 10 of their 17 games vs the bottom 1/3 of all offenses or 58.8% of their schedule

They had 13 of their 17 games vs the bottom 50% of all offenses or 76.4% of their schedule.

They faced just 1 team in the top 9, and that was week 1, so in their last 16 games, they have not faced an offense inside the top 10 in points scored per game.

They played 5 games with a team that did not have their starting QB, including their game vs Pittsburgh.

Digitalkarma

Legend

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 57444

Posted: Jan. 22, 2017 - 11:52 AM ET #56

i was going to do a further write-up on the Steelers/Pats games but simply will have no time but here is my final summary for both games.

Packers/Falcons final thoughts

These two prolific offenses are going to have their way with their opponent's weak secondary no doubt but this game is going to come down to which defense can get the most pressure on the quarterback and make the key plays. i believe it will be Green Bay's defense that will make a few stops more than the Falcon's defense. they will get some sacks on Matt Ryan and intercept a pass. Green Bay's O-line is going to pass protect better and it doesnt help the Falcons lost Adrian Clayborne. the Falcons dont have many pass rushers to put pressure opposite of Vic Beasley and now the Packers can put an extra blocker to make Beasley almost a non-factor in this game. the Falcons also dont defend against the run well, or on 3rd downs and in the redzone. Green Bay has the slight edge on all three. It also helps the Pack that Morgan Burnett will return for this game as well as having all their wide recievers back. However, i think Jared Cook will be the X-factor here. Falcons do not defend tight ends well. I've said it before and i'll say it again. the Falcons do not have a Super Bowl calibur defense to win it all even if their offense is super "awesome". the Packers finally overcome their playoff hardships of the past 5 seasons to get back to the Super Bowl. Final score 34-30, Pack.

Steelers/Patriots thoughts

i like teams playing with revenge in the playoffs after a loss to the same team in the regular season. more often than not they cover the spread if not win outright! Big Ben and the Steelers are 14-5 SUATS with revenge including 4-1 in the playoffs. Even though Ben did not suit up against the Patriots in the regular season meeting, it must have ate him up that he could not be out there and most certainly did not enjoy being on the sidelines for that game.

Expect a highly motivated Ben Roethlisberger to show the Patriots how far he has come along since that last AFC Championship meeting 12 years ago during his rookie season. A much more mature and wiser Big Ben knows that opportunities like these dont come around too often as he leads his young Steelers squad which has quietly transformed into a solid unit. However they still need some growing up to do and this is the best place to do it.

The Steelers defense plays fast and physical and is one of the best red zone defenses in the regular season( if you dont count the two redzone scores by the Chiefs) . Tom Brady struggles against teams with a good pass rush and by my estimation the Patriots havent faced against a top pass rushing unit paired with a potent offense for sometime.. nope the Denver Broncos dont count. the Steelers pass-rushing prowess has finally turned it up as of late. If the Texans defense gave the Pats some fits then I believe the Steelers will give them even more fits.

to be continued

Sip on that plus money honey!

i was going to do a further write-up on the Steelers/Pats games but simply will have no time but here is my final summary for both games.

Packers/Falcons final thoughts

Steelers/Patriots thoughts

to be continued

Digitalkarma

Legend

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 57444

Posted: Jan. 22, 2017 - 12:32 PM ET #57

Steelers/Pats continued

but i also wonder how much of the Patriots struggles on offense last week were due to the health of their recievers? the Bye week probably also played a part in their sluggishness too. Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell, and Martellus Bennett are banged up. While I think Green Bay can get away with a less than 100% recieving corp, the Pats cant do that against a decent defense. Brady will have to rely mostly on his 3 running backs to catch passes and run the ball. the Steelers have struggled defending 3rd downs and will need to be more efficient here. they will need to play a clean game and not commit any foolish penalties. The Patriots have the more efficient offense here so the Steelers will need to be near perfect. i see this game being a defensive battle but luckily for the Steelers Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown are getting hot at the right time. I'm not going to say who wins this game but i see it coming down to a Boswell or Gostkowski field goal. 26-23..

GL gents on Championship Sunday

Sip on that plus money honey!

Digitalkarma

Legend

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 57444

Posted: Jan. 22, 2017 - 12:35 PM ET #58

Quote Originally Posted by RLeith35:

Here are the offensive points per game rank of the New England opponents:

Remember 32 is the worst:

32 LA Rams
31 Cleveland
30 NY Jets
30 NY Jets
29 Houston
29 Houston
27 San Francisco
24 Cincinnati
22 Denver
21 Baltimore
18 Seattle
17 Miami
17 Miami
11 Pittsburgh
10 Buffalo
10 Buffalo
6 Arizona

So they had 7 of 17 games vs the 5 worst offenses in the league (41.1% of their entire schedule)

They had 10 of their 17 games vs the bottom 1/3 of all offenses or 58.8% of their schedule

They had 13 of their 17 games vs the bottom 50% of all offenses or 76.4% of their schedule.

They faced just 1 team in the top 9, and that was week 1, so in their last 16 games, they have not faced an offense inside the top 10 in points scored per game.

They played 5 games with a team that did not have their starting QB, including their game vs Pittsburgh.

i agree. they had an easy path.

Sip on that plus money honey!

Digitalkarma

Legend

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 57444

Posted: Jan. 22, 2017 - 1:00 PM ET #59

updated playlist as of Sunday.

Packers +5 *1u*

Packers +5.5 *2u*

Packers +175 ML *1u*

Packers +180 ML *0.5u*

Packers +190 ML *0.5u*

Packers/Falcons Over 61.5 *1u*

Steelers +6 *1.5u*

Steelers ML +220 *0.5u*

Steelers/Patriots Under 51 *1u*

DK's Conference Championship 4 teamer

Packers +5

Packers/Falcons Over 61

Steelers +6

Steelers/Patriots Under 51

+1100 *0.5u*

DK's NFC Championship 2 teamer

Packers +5.5 and Over 61.5 *0.25u* +260

DK's AFC Championship 2 teamer

Steelers +6 and Under 50 *0.25u* +260

DK's Champions 2 teamer

Packers ML +185 & Steelers ML +220 *0.25u* +800

Packers +5.5 & Steelers +6 *0.5u* +260

Futures

Steelers +1800 to win SB51 *0.25u*
Steelers +450 to win SB51 *0.25u*

Packers +1000 to win SB51 *0.25u*

Packers +400 to win SB51 *0.25u*

Steelers/Packers SB51 Exact finish +800

Packers/Steelers SB51 Exact finish +1000

Packers/Patriots SB51 Exact finish +450

*0.2u* each

GL All.

might make more plays on Steelers later in the day depends how i feel and where the line moves but this is pretty much final. going against my Super Bowl prediction of Packers/Patriots by taking a small shot at Steelers ML.

Sip on that plus money honey!