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DENVER @ JETS! BIG WRITE-UP: Sometimes ya just gotta swallow hard and pull the trigger on a team.

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Posted: #151
Quote Originally Posted by ArnoldRothstein:


Why? Does the truth hurt. You put your money behind the jets you're a joker. A dose of reality
they never learn most should shut up read and learn but they don't
 
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Posted: #152
He didn't cap the nigeger
 
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Posted: #153
Bellagioplayer got banned for being dyslexic 
 
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Posted: #154
was a good play.....you havent disappointed yet...just a freak ending admire conviction...always
 
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Posted: #155

was planning on bettng a lot on jets and Oakland due to public loving Denver and SD

after reading your writeup was so pleased to see there were even very logical reasons to bet jets.

I bet both Miami and jets early games and within minutes I went from winning both to losing both

I was upset but want you to know that I can't thank you enough for all your intelilgent write ups.   Please keep it up because I know you will win a lot more that you lose.

thanks  again (I did cash on Oakland to save the day)

 
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Posted: #156

Well guys, I read all your posts and thanks for the support (good to see ya BB). It'll take me an hour to respond to all of you and I am just too shell shocked at the moment to do so, even 5 hours after the game.

Why?

Well not only did I lose my SU bet +10 on the Jets, but in post #63 I said:

2 units or thereabouts but I have a bunch of Jets in teasers too. About a 3 star play.

4 teasers to be exact. All the legs were hit except for the Jets and one other game.

So the Jets +16.5 hit for me! Good news? Escaping with my life? Well not when you ask me what the final leg in all those teasers was.

It was the Skins of course and I put those bets in early at +3 with Logan Thomas at QB for AZ so all four teasers blow up too at +9.5 with a de javu pick 6 afternoon-cap on the near last play.

Nice day huh...two pick 6's to even take out your SU plays and your teasers to boot...thanks Vegas...

Yes, I will still be here providing write-ups even after days like this.

 
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Posted: #157
SCAL 

Next week baby. Your NYK @ New England..

Line is Jets +9.5 

Your early thoughts ??
 
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Posted: #158
Yeah, Scal, my teasers have been blowing up in my face. They lose way more than they hit, at least for me. I had Cinci at -2.5 as a part of a tease that lost. Brutal, though not as brutal as yours. I'll be on the Niners tomorrow. Now that there is some tape on that QB, he should regress a bit and the Niners have Denver next week so this is a game they need. We'll see.
 
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Posted: #159
Quote Originally Posted by lucky49:

was planning on bettng a lot on jets and Oakland due to public loving Denver and SD

after reading your writeup was so pleased to see there were even very logical reasons to bet jets.

I bet both Miami and jets early games and within minutes I went from winning both to losing both

I was upset but want you to know that I can't thank you enough for all your intelilgent write ups.   Please keep it up because I know you will win a lot more that you lose.

thanks  again (I did cash on Oakland to save the day)


Approve the the kind words. Eases the pain.

@padre and  @rovin and all others. Thanks too.
 
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Posted: #160
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Yeah, Scal, my teasers have been blowing up in my face. They lose way more than they hit, at least for me. I had Cinci at -2.5 as a part of a tease that lost. Brutal, though not as brutal as yours. I'll be on the Niners tomorrow. Now that there is some tape on that QB, he should regress a bit and the Niners have Denver next week so this is a game they need. We'll see.

Will be on SF tomorrow night as well.. I think the niners hit their stride vs the Rams..
 
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Posted: #161
Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:

SCAL 

Next week baby. Your NYK @ New England..

Line is Jets +9.5 

Your early thoughts ??

Well I won't be backing the pats at that number. Will have to wait a few days.

I do want to see what the jets respond to the media and how the multiple injuries for the Jets are diagnosed.

The jets CB situation is the worst I've ever seen at that position in all my years of watching football. The worst ever. And to stay under the number for most of the 4th only to lose it like that, with career backups at CB vs. Possibly the greatest QB to ever live, or at least top 5...disgusting what the jets have tried to overcome, even in losses.
 
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Posted: #162
Right read horrible result. Im still shellshocked also, but i knew when denver pinned them deep that we were in big trouble and the possibility of a pick 6 with geno was high. To be fair to him that receiving core is by far, the worst i've ever seen on an nfl team. It's criminal that they are so far under the salary cap and he's throwing to the likes of those scrubs. Oh and morningwig's a total idiot. 
 
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Posted: #163
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Yeah, Scal, my teasers have been blowing up in my face. They lose way more than they hit, at least for me. I had Cinci at -2.5 as a part of a tease that lost. Brutal, though not as brutal as yours. I'll be on the Niners tomorrow. Now that there is some tape on that QB, he should regress a bit and the Niners have Denver next week so this is a game they need. We'll see.
Im getting done in by multiple pick 6's and -2.5 screws you in a TIE game...bb why do we do this to ourselves?
 
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Posted: #164
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Well I won't be backing the pats at that number. Will have to wait a few days.

I do want to see what the jets respond to the media and how the multiple injuries for the Jets are diagnosed.

The jets CB situation is the worst I've ever seen at that position in all my years of watching football. The worst ever. And to stay under the number for most of the 4th only to lose it like that, with career backups at CB vs. Possibly the greatest QB to ever live, or at least top 5...disgusting what the jets have tried to overcome, even in losses.

He may be the best qb to ever live but if the jets secondary wasn't so unbelievably inept denver not only loses this game, they lose it soundly. Those flutterballs and dropped ints are never not getting picked off by a halfway competent secondary. I don't believe peyton has much left in the tank, but their team is so ridiculously talented that it's hard for them to lose. 
 
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Posted: #165
Quote Originally Posted by degengambler34:

Right read horrible result. Im still shellshocked also, but i knew when denver pinned them deep that we were in big trouble and the possibility of a pick 6 with geno was high. To be fair to him that receiving core is by far, the worst i've ever seen on an nfl team. It's criminal that they are so far under the salary cap and he's throwing to the likes of those scrubs. Oh and morningwig's a total idiot. 

Receiving core is bad but not even close to what they have at CB. Not even CLOSE!

And Idzik has them $20 million under the cap. $20 million! All that extra money could have shorn up both positions.
 
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Posted: #166
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Receiving core is bad but not even close to what they have at CB. Not even CLOSE!

And Idzik has them $20 million under the cap. $20 million! All that extra money could have shorn up both positions.

They have to clean house. I think rex can coach, but only defense, and he hasn't put the right people in place to coach geno because rex isn't an offensive guy. But you're right, the real problem with this team is idzik. Why even draft a qb in first round if you're not going to surround him with some semblance of playmakers? Did they really think decker was going to be a great #1 wr when he was drawing the other teams best cornerbacks every game? Cotchery? Chris johnson? Cmon man. Amaro has promise but other than him i gut the playmakers on that offense and if i can get anything for decker whatsoever i take it. 
 
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Posted: #167
there is something to, be learned from this game though, NFL betting is the toughest to bet on but they let you do a lot of stuff that you can't do in college football

for example, a big favorite and the over is generally correlated, so if you took the jets today, you might as well have parlayed it with the under. I had a major play on the jets + under parlay, and would have parlayed Denver + over if I had designs on that

another game that was correlated was Arizona/Wash which covered AZ+over in the same way.

you can't just take spreads in NFL because well we see what happens when you do, if you can get 7 or more in any game, including teases, you should think about taking it, and if it's correlated you should always parlay to eke out the value imo
 
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Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by degengambler34:


They have to clean house. I think rex can coach, but only defense, and he hasn't put the right people in place to coach geno because rex isn't an offensive guy. But you're right, the real problem with this team is idzik. Why even draft a qb in first round if you're not going to surround him with some semblance of playmakers? Did they really think decker was going to be a great #1 wr when he was drawing the other teams best cornerbacks every game? Cotchery? Chris johnson? Cmon man. Amaro has promise but other than him i gut the playmakers on that offense and if i can get anything for decker whatsoever i take it. 

Believe it or not, they want to set themselves up to lose with Idzik. Rex knows it but is in denial at times.

Idzik stayed under the cap in Seattle and built some/many? of the things going on right now (but not all). He's using the same formula with the jets. Lose now win later. Which is why their position players are so below average. Except on the front seven as a nod to Rex. You have to throw a dog some kind of bone.
 
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Posted: #169
That NE game will be tricky after the Jets gave everything they had against the Broncos. It reminds of when the Raiders went all in against NE and came up short. The next game they laid a big egg and the coach was fired. Can Ryan get his guys to go all in again and in a short week? I don't know. 
 
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Posted: #170
by the way guys, the ones to tease are the lines going from 1.5 to 2.5 to over seven and 4.5 to 10.5, and of course 8.5 to 14.5

never tease 3.5 to 9.5 or through zeros , you have to pass 2 key numbers

I teased miami with Detroit (+8) pitt (+8.5), dallas (+15) washington (+11) and jax (+10.5) and it went 4-1

I loved Miami to play a very competitive game today, and was willing to put 5u on it, but why guess the winner in a one score tossup?

very important that you keep the teases to only the numbers above btw, the reason is because 4 pt wins and 10 pt wins are equally common but 9 point wins are much rarer than both

anyway better luck next time thanks for the writeup
 
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Posted: #171
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

That NE game will be tricky after the Jets gave everything they had against the Broncos. It reminds of when the Raiders went all in against NE and came up short. The next game they laid a big egg and the coach was fired. Can Ryan get his guys to go all in again and in a short week? I don't know. 

History says the Jets will bring it vs New England but so will the Pats..
Geno looked like a man who saw a Ghost after that pick 6..  Have to think this one over some.
 
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Posted: #172
btw what i mean was that 10 pit wins are a lot more common than both 11 and 9 so when you tease never never never never tease from 3.5 to 9 or 3 to 9, it's basically a mathematical fact that you will lose money but if you tease from less than 3 to more than 7 and anything to over 10 you will win long term no matter who the teams are in the NFL


 
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Posted: #173
Quote Originally Posted by URZ262:

there is something to, be learned from this game though, NFL betting is the toughest to bet on but they let you do a lot of stuff that you can't do in college football

for example, a big favorite and the over is generally correlated, so if you took the jets today, you might as well have parlayed it with the under. I had a major play on the jets + under parlay, and would have parlayed Denver + over if I had designs on that

another game that was correlated was Arizona/Wash which covered AZ+over in the same way.

you can't just take spreads in NFL because well we see what happens when you do, if you can get 7 or more in any game, including teases, you should think about taking it, and if it's correlated you should always parlay to eke out the value imo

I understand your point but you can bet sides in the NFL and be successful...

I don't know what lesson to learn here though: avoid deep punts possible safeties and pick 6's to blow up your spread? I knew there would be little wiggle room with this number, but I would have much rather Manning punch it in himself to put it at 14 than end on that fisaco.
 
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Posted: #174

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

That NE game will be tricky after the Jets gave everything they had against the Broncos. It reminds of when the Raiders went all in against NE and came up short. The next game they laid a big egg and the coach was fired. Can Ryan get his guys to go all in again and in a short week? I don't know. 

I think they have something left to give. I just HATE the short week which is why I wanted this game so much so I could lay off that one.

 
 
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Posted: #175
I understand your point but you can bet sides in the NFL and be successful...

it's very very very hard because the numbers are sharp, I have been betting for a long time and NFL is the one I probably have lost at,

today wasn't an aberration, it's generally the rule, you have to find value in teasers props and correlated parlays imho, good write up tho and you were right, the Jets played well and their pass d was good in the second half, Decker is pretty good and Geno has an arm
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