Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
2014 NFL record 2-0
2014 CFB record 1-1
I've given more thought to this game than any game this year in college or the pros.
I'm laying in bed until about an hour ago and I said to myself, "If this number goes up anymore, I have to take it."
It did and folks, fasten your seatbelts: We are going Jets here.
The opening lines were very strange with this one. Some places had them as low as SEVEN and now I'm seeing 10's, 10.5 on Bovada at -115 and 5 Dimes is offering +11 -140. So whatever makes you comfortable, take. But at a minimum, you should get minus 10 at standard juice.
So since it is only 4.5 hours until kickoff, I'm going to have to condense my write-up. So here's some rapid fire points.
1. The line
A line move of 3.5 pts is MAJOR. For the books to open this at 7 in some places blows my mind. Why? 7 is a number with no teaser protection, that is, even in the Jets get inside 7, the Broncos and the Chargers (also opened at -7/-8) will be the biggest teased games of the week BY FAR.
That means, if there is a blowout by Denver (which the public expects), the books are really going to take a beating on straight plays, teasers and of course, parlays.
Now for the books to open this line at 7/7.5/8 and not have the teaser protection absolutely REEKS of the books wanting to take a STRONG position on the Jets to get back the San Diego money and then some on this team.
And I can assure you, the Broncos and the Chargers will be the two biggest public sides BY FAR this week. I don't even need to look at the alleged percentages (and if you do look, Denver is #1 on the front page of this site in terms of public support).
I can pick or fade the Jets on my own merits without line reading but this line and the big movement, all through key numbers, really stands out so it has to be noted.
2. Classic Buy High/Sell Low
Folks, this is not news to a bettor. You have to treat these games like a stock.
So what is the most recent thing you see from the Jets?
A 31-0 blowout where they couldn't score a point and they brought in their backup.
What is the most recent thing you see from the Broncos?
A 41-20 blowout of the 3-0 Cardinals.
So were those games as impressive as they seemed for the victors? No.
Why?
In the San Diego game, I can assure you, the Jets gave up at the end of the second quarter.
Would they have won otherwise? No. But that is not the point. The beating they took really drives this line through the roof.
It was about 100 degrees on the field and the Jets had their bags packed at halftime and wanted out. They were ready to go home and play Denver.
San Diego has a knack for doing this to teams against a very good team and this is key, in that weather. We saw the Super Bowl Champs even go there and lose 31-20, gasping and heaving all over the field in the humidity.
The point. As bad as it looked, and it was BAD, you can't let that ultimately sway your pick and lay the points here. This line is big enough to take the Jets with in a big bounceback spot.
Was the Denver game as impressive as it seemed? No.
Why? The last game they played before that was the comeback heartbreaker rematch vs. the Seahawks in Seattle. That was a huge loss in a game they needed redemption from.
Better yet, they had a bye to stew over the loss, gameplan for the Cardinals and come home and demolish them with a classic Manning airshow.
Better yet, Carson Palmer was out and even better yet, the backup Drew Stanton went down early in the third and Logan Thomas came in and completed exactly ONE PASS the rest of the game.
Remember this, that game was MUCH closer entering the fourth at 24-20 Denver. The Broncos scored 17 pts against a team without a competent QB to close it out making it look like a blowout. It wasn't! They just feasted on a team that was down to its third string QB on the road and allowed to lose one after a perfect start to the season.
So in summation, the "Recency Effect", that is, having the most recent performance sway you pick, is completely on the Broncos side.
But there win wasn't as impressive after a little digging and the Jets loss wasn't as bad after understanding why things were what they were.
The Knicks have given up 1,000's of times! And the next game they came out guns a blazin'. They gave up FIFTY in a quarter this year to the unbelievably horrid Lakers and won the very next game (and I wrote that Knicks @ Kings game up for the Knicks side when they won 107-99 getting +2). So don't be worried about the give up. Teams do this more than you think and bounce back in a big way.
not trying 2 piss on yr post..great writeup by the way..but im a last game jet fan..been fan 4 30 years...Denver wins by 24 EASY
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