Paid slightly more for these numbers. Be aware I'm not really a totals guy but i think these are easier to figure out than the sides this week, and I already have Denver and Seattle futures live but i will make some small plays on the sides too.
Denver/NE Under 44.5 4 units
Teams with great defenses and backup QBs are great for Unders. Denver and NE both cashed the Over in their last games and I think the pendulum swings back the other way. Stidham in his NFL action has rarely lit it up he usually throws like 1 TD 1 INT. He might be okay today but NE defense is good and he will likely struggle to convert in the red zone where NE was actually weak for most of the season on defense but has really cleaned it up lately, helped by playing bad offenses but the Broncos have struggled on offense in several games.
i expect a similar game to last AFC West team the Pats played vs the Chargers.
For the side I've gone back and forth. Some are questioning if Nix is worth a 7 pt swing in the line. I dunno but IMO he has brought an energy that has sparked an offense that was very lackluster before with Wilson he couldn't do anything. Weve all seen backups who play great for one game when they fill in, and Stidham has home field and a great defense but I'm worried they are going to revert back to their previous uselessness especially vs a NE team that can play d.
I would love for my Broncos future to still be live next week but I just doubt it. Maye leads the NFL in fumbles and fumbled twice last week but Houston idiots couldn't fall on them. If he makes those mistakes Denver must capitalize on them to win. The Pats lead the NFL in comp percentage and yards per completion so that's why I'm siding with them, they have the big play capability in this matchup.
They are also 2nd in average scoring margin which is an important stat I look at to determine who will win championships.
Pats -4.5 1 unit
2
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Paid slightly more for these numbers. Be aware I'm not really a totals guy but i think these are easier to figure out than the sides this week, and I already have Denver and Seattle futures live but i will make some small plays on the sides too.
Denver/NE Under 44.5 4 units
Teams with great defenses and backup QBs are great for Unders. Denver and NE both cashed the Over in their last games and I think the pendulum swings back the other way. Stidham in his NFL action has rarely lit it up he usually throws like 1 TD 1 INT. He might be okay today but NE defense is good and he will likely struggle to convert in the red zone where NE was actually weak for most of the season on defense but has really cleaned it up lately, helped by playing bad offenses but the Broncos have struggled on offense in several games.
i expect a similar game to last AFC West team the Pats played vs the Chargers.
For the side I've gone back and forth. Some are questioning if Nix is worth a 7 pt swing in the line. I dunno but IMO he has brought an energy that has sparked an offense that was very lackluster before with Wilson he couldn't do anything. Weve all seen backups who play great for one game when they fill in, and Stidham has home field and a great defense but I'm worried they are going to revert back to their previous uselessness especially vs a NE team that can play d.
I would love for my Broncos future to still be live next week but I just doubt it. Maye leads the NFL in fumbles and fumbled twice last week but Houston idiots couldn't fall on them. If he makes those mistakes Denver must capitalize on them to win. The Pats lead the NFL in comp percentage and yards per completion so that's why I'm siding with them, they have the big play capability in this matchup.
They are also 2nd in average scoring margin which is an important stat I look at to determine who will win championships.
Last matchup was high scoring and while two division rivals meeting a 3rd time, with good defenses (Seattle especially) can sometimes make for low scoring I don't see it here.
Seattle leads the NFL in average scoring margin and can put up points on anyone. The Rams lead the NFL in yards per game. And while both teams do have good defenses, their ballhawking abilities can perhaps lead to some defensive scores and Darnold leads the league in picks. Stafford usually avoids those but has had some bad games too.
For the side it's very tough but I'm sticking with Seattle who I have a future on (unlike the other game where im fading my future ticket) because they lead the NFL in scoring margin, and have only played one easy home game never had to stretch out of 2md gear while the Rams are now on 3 straight road games.
I'll be very annoyed if the Rams win because I backed them the last 2 times and they couldn't cover either game. I wonder how many teams who win 2 SU playoff games without covering have fared then as a dog next time. But the way they screwed up vs Carolina who had an awful start and then the Rams did everything possible to get them back in it really shows their inconsistency. And then last week they screw up by allowing that insane TD.
They also lost to Carolina and Atlanta in the regular season. Seattle played both those teams too and smoked them both by double digits. Rams defense has leaks in the back end. I love that Kupp is facing his old team.
And let's not forget the last game vs Seattle they blew a 16 point lead in the 4th. This team screws up a lot! And Seattle has allowed the least TDs in the NFL, and only 0.3 TDs the last 3 games. The Rams are allowing nearly 3 per game lately.
Absolutely always take the ML on 2.5 pt favs and especially between these two teams where it's always been a last minute FG job. But someone posted asking what game is most likely to be a blowout, this game history definitely doesn't say it will be but the Hawks recent form shows they have the ability to do that to anyone.
I also think McVay is somewhat overrated he often does things that annoy me. Never will forget him kicking a meaningless FG as time expired vs the 9ers which did nothing other than fk up the spread on 9ers bets.
Speaking of the 9ers they were on a pretty good roll before the Hawks beat the crap out of them. Teams that blowout a lot of teams are often the SB winners and I think (and hope) Seattle will be this year.
It's only the fact Darnold doesn't have Stafford's SB winning resume, he has at times made bad mistakes with INTs, and these teams always play close but it could actually be good value to be able to take 2.5 or just a slightly more expensive moneyline for a team that has won it's games by an average of almost 13 pts this year. Missing Charbonnet hurts but the leaky LA defense could get exposed tonight and there's a good chance the Hawks leave no doubt who is actually the better team and we for once do NOT get a Close game.
0
Seahawks/Rams Over 44.5
Last matchup was high scoring and while two division rivals meeting a 3rd time, with good defenses (Seattle especially) can sometimes make for low scoring I don't see it here.
Seattle leads the NFL in average scoring margin and can put up points on anyone. The Rams lead the NFL in yards per game. And while both teams do have good defenses, their ballhawking abilities can perhaps lead to some defensive scores and Darnold leads the league in picks. Stafford usually avoids those but has had some bad games too.
For the side it's very tough but I'm sticking with Seattle who I have a future on (unlike the other game where im fading my future ticket) because they lead the NFL in scoring margin, and have only played one easy home game never had to stretch out of 2md gear while the Rams are now on 3 straight road games.
I'll be very annoyed if the Rams win because I backed them the last 2 times and they couldn't cover either game. I wonder how many teams who win 2 SU playoff games without covering have fared then as a dog next time. But the way they screwed up vs Carolina who had an awful start and then the Rams did everything possible to get them back in it really shows their inconsistency. And then last week they screw up by allowing that insane TD.
They also lost to Carolina and Atlanta in the regular season. Seattle played both those teams too and smoked them both by double digits. Rams defense has leaks in the back end. I love that Kupp is facing his old team.
And let's not forget the last game vs Seattle they blew a 16 point lead in the 4th. This team screws up a lot! And Seattle has allowed the least TDs in the NFL, and only 0.3 TDs the last 3 games. The Rams are allowing nearly 3 per game lately.
Absolutely always take the ML on 2.5 pt favs and especially between these two teams where it's always been a last minute FG job. But someone posted asking what game is most likely to be a blowout, this game history definitely doesn't say it will be but the Hawks recent form shows they have the ability to do that to anyone.
I also think McVay is somewhat overrated he often does things that annoy me. Never will forget him kicking a meaningless FG as time expired vs the 9ers which did nothing other than fk up the spread on 9ers bets.
Speaking of the 9ers they were on a pretty good roll before the Hawks beat the crap out of them. Teams that blowout a lot of teams are often the SB winners and I think (and hope) Seattle will be this year.
It's only the fact Darnold doesn't have Stafford's SB winning resume, he has at times made bad mistakes with INTs, and these teams always play close but it could actually be good value to be able to take 2.5 or just a slightly more expensive moneyline for a team that has won it's games by an average of almost 13 pts this year. Missing Charbonnet hurts but the leaky LA defense could get exposed tonight and there's a good chance the Hawks leave no doubt who is actually the better team and we for once do NOT get a Close game.
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