Hey all, some of you have probably seen this coming. Typical bettor betting on his favorite team. Hear me out, though. I'm going to take the:
Chargers +3.5
And here is why.
Schematics and the whole SOS argument aside, the Chargers will have traveled to Foxborough as the team with the most travel miles in the NFL. That's okay, though. The Chargers are 5-2 on the road, if you take away the last game of the season in Denver. (They rested their starters and were expected to lose. Still, they were competitive.) At first glance one might think playing in low temperatures should hinder the a team that plays in a retractable roof (that's not a dome) and usually with warm weather. This won't affect the Chargers as some would think. They have players who either played college ball as a cold weather team, or have come from other teams and have done so. You can also look no further than earlier in this season when they played the Chiefs in Arrowhead. It was 19 degrees at opening kickoff and the Chargers won that game.
Now, if you're still with me, the Chargers playing the night game *should* actually benefit the Chargers more. An SI article came out stating that West Coast teams who travel to the East Coast fare better when they are playing the night game as opposed to an earlier game. This is because the West Coast team, depending on when they've traveled, will still feel like they're on PST, playing the game at 5 p.m. whereas the East Coast home team will truly be feeling the late start. Maybe this won't make a difference. Especially if the Pats are the better team. But here's some other stats to refer to:
The Chargers are 5-0 on prime time this season. Herbert plays well under the bright lights on a national stage.
Herbert's career record coming off a bye* is approximately 52-43. (I'm including last week's game against the Broncos as a bye for Herbert and some of the other starters, as well.)
Denzel Perryman, the Chargers best run defending linebacker, will be back from his 2 game suspension. This should help neutralize the Patriots run game.
The Chargers defense excel at pattern-matching and red-zone stops. They will likely force May to checkdown and reduce explosive plays, while the Chargers secondary eliminate passing options. The Chargers D play with 2 deep safeties at the 5th highest rate in the league. They're in the top 10 at limiting explosive passes. If their defense forces a 3d down, the Chargers are one of the best 3d down defenses in the league.
Part of what has made Drake Maye successful is his ability to beat the blitz. Per Chad Graff (Athletic writer for the Pats), Drake Maye has better numbers against the blitz than when not blitzed. The Chargers rarely blitz and won't give him that benefit.
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