Hi guys I am looking to take my sports betting to the next level and no longer rely on intuition. Can anybody help me build a model/system for NFL & other sports? If you can please share your info with me whether it be your own model, info on where to build one or any valuable advice I'd really appreciate that.
Also while we're on the subject, does anyone have a good free website for historic data/spreads that could be helpful in this venture?
Thanks guys
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hi guys I am looking to take my sports betting to the next level and no longer rely on intuition. Can anybody help me build a model/system for NFL & other sports? If you can please share your info with me whether it be your own model, info on where to build one or any valuable advice I'd really appreciate that.
Also while we're on the subject, does anyone have a good free website for historic data/spreads that could be helpful in this venture?
Try https://themoneybackguarantee.com/sports-betting-bible it's a Free eBook I used and it gave me some tools I use for Fantasy as well. You can't argue with an 89.7% win rate. Maybe it will give you some ideas. Hopefully this helps you. Cheers!
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Try https://themoneybackguarantee.com/sports-betting-bible it's a Free eBook I used and it gave me some tools I use for Fantasy as well. You can't argue with an 89.7% win rate. Maybe it will give you some ideas. Hopefully this helps you. Cheers!
Still struggling guys, I really don't know what I'm looking for to be honest.
If anyone has a blueprint of the formula they use to make plays it'd be awesome if you could post it
You have a lot working against you:
1) You are a magnet for touts and their "59-2" systems
2) If someone had a formula, they would probably guard it with their lives
3) For a model to work, it needs to be more sophisticated than other models. Since you are starting from 0, it will take you a long time to gain that sophistication. (unless you are a math genius)
4) Most models also needs data as the input. You can only go so far with the stats that are publicly available, which means you (or your group) needs to watch and grade every NFL play.
The easiest model is simply to write down a power rating for each team. Add 3 points for home field, and compare your calculated spread to the actual spread. If your power ratings are god, then the picks will be good too.
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Quote Originally Posted by simple3:
Still struggling guys, I really don't know what I'm looking for to be honest.
If anyone has a blueprint of the formula they use to make plays it'd be awesome if you could post it
You have a lot working against you:
1) You are a magnet for touts and their "59-2" systems
2) If someone had a formula, they would probably guard it with their lives
3) For a model to work, it needs to be more sophisticated than other models. Since you are starting from 0, it will take you a long time to gain that sophistication. (unless you are a math genius)
4) Most models also needs data as the input. You can only go so far with the stats that are publicly available, which means you (or your group) needs to watch and grade every NFL play.
The easiest model is simply to write down a power rating for each team. Add 3 points for home field, and compare your calculated spread to the actual spread. If your power ratings are god, then the picks will be good too.
1) You are a magnet for touts and their "59-2" systems
2) If someone had a formula, they would probably guard it with their lives
3) For a model to work, it needs to be more sophisticated than other models. Since you are starting from 0, it will take you a long time to gain that sophistication. (unless you are a math genius)
4) Most models also needs data as the input. You can only go so far with the stats that are publicly available, which means you (or your group) needs to watch and grade every NFL play.
The easiest model is simply to write down a power rating for each team. Add 3 points for home field, and compare your calculated spread to the actual spread. If your power ratings are god, then the picks will be good too.
Lol I am not a magnet for touts and their 59-2 system, I have been betting for years based on intuition I just want to take it to the next level.
Thanks for the rest of your post
Thanks as well numb3rz
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Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:
You have a lot working against you:
1) You are a magnet for touts and their "59-2" systems
2) If someone had a formula, they would probably guard it with their lives
3) For a model to work, it needs to be more sophisticated than other models. Since you are starting from 0, it will take you a long time to gain that sophistication. (unless you are a math genius)
4) Most models also needs data as the input. You can only go so far with the stats that are publicly available, which means you (or your group) needs to watch and grade every NFL play.
The easiest model is simply to write down a power rating for each team. Add 3 points for home field, and compare your calculated spread to the actual spread. If your power ratings are god, then the picks will be good too.
Lol I am not a magnet for touts and their 59-2 system, I have been betting for years based on intuition I just want to take it to the next level.
The best thing I've found when it comes to betting the NFL is a 2 Team 7 pt teaser. The juice is right around -120. I look at spreads in the -5 to -8 range where I'm not sure about the spread but very confident in a straight up win, or an underdog who I feel could win outright that's already receiving generous points. For example: In week 1 I'd look at taking Cincy at +4 in Oakland (originally -3) and Jacksonville +11 against Carolina (originally +4). I think Cincy is loaded on offense and defense and feel confident they can get within 4 of Oakland. Also I feel like outside of Benjamin, Carolina has absolutely no offensive weapons. I'll take the Jags at double digits against a team I don't thinks much better than them.
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The best thing I've found when it comes to betting the NFL is a 2 Team 7 pt teaser. The juice is right around -120. I look at spreads in the -5 to -8 range where I'm not sure about the spread but very confident in a straight up win, or an underdog who I feel could win outright that's already receiving generous points. For example: In week 1 I'd look at taking Cincy at +4 in Oakland (originally -3) and Jacksonville +11 against Carolina (originally +4). I think Cincy is loaded on offense and defense and feel confident they can get within 4 of Oakland. Also I feel like outside of Benjamin, Carolina has absolutely no offensive weapons. I'll take the Jags at double digits against a team I don't thinks much better than them.
HERES A SYSTEM PLAY THAT HAS BEEN GOOD FOR THE LAST 15 YRS,,,,BACK TO BACK ROAD TEAMS,IF THEY COVER ,,1ST GAME ,,TAKE HOME TEAM NEXT GAME.....THIS WORKS 80% OF THE TIME...............
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HERES A SYSTEM PLAY THAT HAS BEEN GOOD FOR THE LAST 15 YRS,,,,BACK TO BACK ROAD TEAMS,IF THEY COVER ,,1ST GAME ,,TAKE HOME TEAM NEXT GAME.....THIS WORKS 80% OF THE TIME...............
HERES A SYSTEM PLAY THAT HAS BEEN GOOD FOR THE LAST 15 YRS,,,,BACK TO BACK ROAD TEAMS,IF THEY COVER ,,1ST GAME ,,TAKE HOME TEAM NEXT GAME.....THIS WORKS 80% OF THE TIME...............
This "system" is 354-407 ATS (46.5%) since 1989.
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Quote Originally Posted by luckyly:
HERES A SYSTEM PLAY THAT HAS BEEN GOOD FOR THE LAST 15 YRS,,,,BACK TO BACK ROAD TEAMS,IF THEY COVER ,,1ST GAME ,,TAKE HOME TEAM NEXT GAME.....THIS WORKS 80% OF THE TIME...............
Hi guys I am looking to take my sports betting to the next level and no longer rely on intuition. Can anybody help me build a model/system for NFL & other sports? If you can please share your info with me whether it be your own model, info on where to build one or any valuable advice I'd really appreciate that.
Also while we're on the subject, does anyone have a good free website for historic data/spreads that could be helpful in this venture?
Thanks guys
If you are interested in the technical analysis of each matchup you should take a look at The Prediction Tracker. This site is a compilation of thirty or so sites. You can go to the front page of NFL or NCAA games and then scroll down and find a link to each site. You can then visit each site and get a summary of that site's mathematical or other method of analysis.
It's one more tool, but it will never replace a solid understanding of the teams and the matchup you are capping.
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Quote Originally Posted by simple3:
Hi guys I am looking to take my sports betting to the next level and no longer rely on intuition. Can anybody help me build a model/system for NFL & other sports? If you can please share your info with me whether it be your own model, info on where to build one or any valuable advice I'd really appreciate that.
Also while we're on the subject, does anyone have a good free website for historic data/spreads that could be helpful in this venture?
Thanks guys
If you are interested in the technical analysis of each matchup you should take a look at The Prediction Tracker. This site is a compilation of thirty or so sites. You can go to the front page of NFL or NCAA games and then scroll down and find a link to each site. You can then visit each site and get a summary of that site's mathematical or other method of analysis.
It's one more tool, but it will never replace a solid understanding of the teams and the matchup you are capping.
I've used a modified yards per point system to make picks for quite a while. Some years it works better than other years. One season I won an ATS contest with 59% correct. Not easy to do, when you have to pick all 256 games. Anyway, it's an easy system to use, if you don't mind doing a little math each week.
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Do a bing or google search for
yards per point
I've used a modified yards per point system to make picks for quite a while. Some years it works better than other years. One season I won an ATS contest with 59% correct. Not easy to do, when you have to pick all 256 games. Anyway, it's an easy system to use, if you don't mind doing a little math each week.
Simple3, Try killersports.com. You can create your own query. We have a team of 3 and everyone has a job, 1) watch every game 2) query for trends 3) optimizer we developed for daily fantasy. Our 'query guy' has uncovered some very interesting stuff and depending on what we find, we'll hit the sportsbook or a daily fantasy site. The combination is addicting and fun, but also makes for smart betting. Tout warning - I am trying to get the guys to post, blog, and help others but like someone said earlier, you don't share what is working. If we decide to move forward this year (podcast, bets, daily, optimizer) it will be posted on our crap website (we are too lazy to put the time in when all we need is a place to post). PM me if you are interested in hearing more or check out mrbourne.com
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Simple3, Try killersports.com. You can create your own query. We have a team of 3 and everyone has a job, 1) watch every game 2) query for trends 3) optimizer we developed for daily fantasy. Our 'query guy' has uncovered some very interesting stuff and depending on what we find, we'll hit the sportsbook or a daily fantasy site. The combination is addicting and fun, but also makes for smart betting. Tout warning - I am trying to get the guys to post, blog, and help others but like someone said earlier, you don't share what is working. If we decide to move forward this year (podcast, bets, daily, optimizer) it will be posted on our crap website (we are too lazy to put the time in when all we need is a place to post). PM me if you are interested in hearing more or check out mrbourne.com
TIMEOUT..there is no fool proof system in betting sports. There sure is a system for fools.
Listen i have gambled more than most of you combined. When it comes to sports ANYTHING can happen. Remember that.
A ref can miss a call. A player or multiple players can get injured, suspended, or ejected from a game. No system can account for every variable in sports. Ever.
It's like trying to predict the future. You can be pretty darn sure but never certain. Never.
Think about all the times you;ve had a good feeling about a bet and it lost. Well shucks how'd we miss that one? Only to follow that feeling up with another better smarter more analytical feeling?! Woops we missed again. Surely we cant get 3 bets in a row wrong can WE?! Darn. I missed again. OK gonna take the favorie -360 at home...cant miss right?! WRONG.
This isnt pessimism. It's realism. I wanna make money betting sports in the long run, retire and call it quits but it aint that easy.
My advice is try to smash a parlay or 2 each year. Try to break even at worse each year and be satisfied with that. Otherwise...get a job you can tolerate and hang on for the ride!
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TIMEOUT..there is no fool proof system in betting sports. There sure is a system for fools.
Listen i have gambled more than most of you combined. When it comes to sports ANYTHING can happen. Remember that.
A ref can miss a call. A player or multiple players can get injured, suspended, or ejected from a game. No system can account for every variable in sports. Ever.
It's like trying to predict the future. You can be pretty darn sure but never certain. Never.
Think about all the times you;ve had a good feeling about a bet and it lost. Well shucks how'd we miss that one? Only to follow that feeling up with another better smarter more analytical feeling?! Woops we missed again. Surely we cant get 3 bets in a row wrong can WE?! Darn. I missed again. OK gonna take the favorie -360 at home...cant miss right?! WRONG.
This isnt pessimism. It's realism. I wanna make money betting sports in the long run, retire and call it quits but it aint that easy.
My advice is try to smash a parlay or 2 each year. Try to break even at worse each year and be satisfied with that. Otherwise...get a job you can tolerate and hang on for the ride!
^ Don't need posts like this. I have previously stated, I am seasoned sports bettor. I am not looking some 90% system. No where did I ask for a fool proof system. I am not stupid.
I know the fundamentals of betting inside out. I know what is realistic, I know how to manage my money. I know about 52.5%, everything I need to know...I have been betting for years, I am simply looking to advance my skills and learn new things(as any prosperous person should)
No where did I state I am looking for some kind of crazy system that is going to grant me early retirement. I run my own business, I don't believe in fallacies such as monte carlo. I create my own luck...through hard work and discipline, I am not out to hit a lottery ticket.
I highly recommend you read some books, start with 'how to have a millionaire mindset' by Pat Mesiti and then 'Think and grow rich' by Napoleon Hill. These books go much deeper than betting.
Mrbourne I am not here to buy anything but thanks for your post.
Look forward to hearing back from you biscuit
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^ Don't need posts like this. I have previously stated, I am seasoned sports bettor. I am not looking some 90% system. No where did I ask for a fool proof system. I am not stupid.
I know the fundamentals of betting inside out. I know what is realistic, I know how to manage my money. I know about 52.5%, everything I need to know...I have been betting for years, I am simply looking to advance my skills and learn new things(as any prosperous person should)
No where did I state I am looking for some kind of crazy system that is going to grant me early retirement. I run my own business, I don't believe in fallacies such as monte carlo. I create my own luck...through hard work and discipline, I am not out to hit a lottery ticket.
I highly recommend you read some books, start with 'how to have a millionaire mindset' by Pat Mesiti and then 'Think and grow rich' by Napoleon Hill. These books go much deeper than betting.
Mrbourne I am not here to buy anything but thanks for your post.
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