I have an open $25 parlay that pays 3500. I did it at the beginning of October with A couple of Moneyline college football teams and the Patriots to win the Super Bowl ( last leg). DraftKings has never even offered me a cash out the entire year, which I thought was strange.
After being forced to root for the Patriots all year, I would like to get something out of it. I do think Seattle wins the game rather easily. I came up with two options( other than ride it out and go for it)
I drop $2300 on the money line Seattle to win 1000. Patriots win I win 1200 Seattle wins I win 1000.
option two. Do nothing and pray sometime during the game pats have a lead and the odds are close to a pick em. Then I would bet 1800 on Seattle ML and pretty much win 1800 either way, which is kind of what I’m looking for
Any other ideas? If I do nothing, Seattle could jump on them early and the party’s over.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I have an open $25 parlay that pays 3500. I did it at the beginning of October with A couple of Moneyline college football teams and the Patriots to win the Super Bowl ( last leg). DraftKings has never even offered me a cash out the entire year, which I thought was strange.
After being forced to root for the Patriots all year, I would like to get something out of it. I do think Seattle wins the game rather easily. I came up with two options( other than ride it out and go for it)
I drop $2300 on the money line Seattle to win 1000. Patriots win I win 1200 Seattle wins I win 1000.
option two. Do nothing and pray sometime during the game pats have a lead and the odds are close to a pick em. Then I would bet 1800 on Seattle ML and pretty much win 1800 either way, which is kind of what I’m looking for
Any other ideas? If I do nothing, Seattle could jump on them early and the party’s over.
Let it ride. Assuming you are comfortable of placing big wagers in your career. Forget about the parlay but think of it as you have already placed a wager (>$1000) for the Patriots. If you want to hedge, then hedge it live where you can get better value for Seahawks ML. Try to calculate your target line for the Seahawks ML with a wager to hit a payout you will be happy about. There are alot of calculator available for free online.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
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Let it ride. Assuming you are comfortable of placing big wagers in your career. Forget about the parlay but think of it as you have already placed a wager (>$1000) for the Patriots. If you want to hedge, then hedge it live where you can get better value for Seahawks ML. Try to calculate your target line for the Seahawks ML with a wager to hit a payout you will be happy about. There are alot of calculator available for free online.
One momentum risk for you here is if Seahawks will get ahead and stay ahead during the majority time of play. Hence you will lose $25, enjoyed the thrill of the game and having the discipline of losing less.
if Seahawks will be behind and chasing by a TD by halftime I think the line will be at -110 or around that area for the ML. Up to you if you want to jump the gun or let it ride since your original play is already ahead.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
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One momentum risk for you here is if Seahawks will get ahead and stay ahead during the majority time of play. Hence you will lose $25, enjoyed the thrill of the game and having the discipline of losing less.
if Seahawks will be behind and chasing by a TD by halftime I think the line will be at -110 or around that area for the ML. Up to you if you want to jump the gun or let it ride since your original play is already ahead.
There are basically three things to consider when hedging a parlay: New and critical information, risk to your bankroll percentage, and the time your money will be/has been tied up.
There is really no new information.
The risk is not the same as when people have a crazy parlay. Like when a person has a small amount tied up and gets to the 10th leg and can win 200K or cash out and win 50k. You will hear people say it is not good math or is negative EV to cash out. This is true. But they do not consider the effect it will have on a person's bankroll going forward. Obviously, all of the retail books are not going to give you true odds on the 'winning' ticket you are holding at that point, they will short-change you. But you have to consider bankroll at this point.
For example, if you bet 100 to win 200K and can now cash out for 50K you might be increasing your bankroll by 50x or 100x if you cash out.
What that means is that from this point, going forward you can now bet more. Then you can now realize your edges in betting at a higher amount but keep your betting percentage of the bankroll the same.
So, in your example, this is not the same as a huge parlay cash out option that would automatically increase your bankroll and sizing of bets going forward.
Therefore, the third and last thing to consider is time.
To me there is no new critical information and the money wagered and potential profit or loss is not crucial to your bankroll.
However, considering the time in the wager I would want the ROI to return a guaranteed profit.
1
There are basically three things to consider when hedging a parlay: New and critical information, risk to your bankroll percentage, and the time your money will be/has been tied up.
There is really no new information.
The risk is not the same as when people have a crazy parlay. Like when a person has a small amount tied up and gets to the 10th leg and can win 200K or cash out and win 50k. You will hear people say it is not good math or is negative EV to cash out. This is true. But they do not consider the effect it will have on a person's bankroll going forward. Obviously, all of the retail books are not going to give you true odds on the 'winning' ticket you are holding at that point, they will short-change you. But you have to consider bankroll at this point.
For example, if you bet 100 to win 200K and can now cash out for 50K you might be increasing your bankroll by 50x or 100x if you cash out.
What that means is that from this point, going forward you can now bet more. Then you can now realize your edges in betting at a higher amount but keep your betting percentage of the bankroll the same.
So, in your example, this is not the same as a huge parlay cash out option that would automatically increase your bankroll and sizing of bets going forward.
Therefore, the third and last thing to consider is time.
To me there is no new critical information and the money wagered and potential profit or loss is not crucial to your bankroll.
However, considering the time in the wager I would want the ROI to return a guaranteed profit.
I have an open $25 parlay that pays 3500. I did it at the beginning of October with A couple of Moneyline college football teams and the Patriots to win the Super Bowl ( last leg). DraftKings has never even offered me a cash out the entire year, which I thought was strange. After being forced to root for the Patriots all year, I would like to get something out of it. I do think Seattle wins the game rather easily. I came up with two options( other than ride it out and go for it) I drop $2300 on the money line Seattle to win 1000. Patriots win I win 1200 Seattle wins I win 1000. option two. Do nothing and pray sometime during the game pats have a lead and the odds are close to a pick em. Then I would bet 1800 on Seattle ML and pretty much win 1800 either way, which is kind of what I’m looking for Any other ideas? If I do nothing, Seattle could jump on them early and the party’s over.
DK always offered me a cash out on all of my parlays no matter how dead the bets were that I made, so are you sure they haven't offered you a cash out at all? Honestly, it makes no sense unless DK's AI thinks it's 100% certain that the Patriots will lose the Super Bowl but I highly doubt that's the case.
One thing I did notice when DK does not offer me a cash out option is when the bet is made in a different state.
I live in PA but I also spend most of my time in Atlantic City casino hotels. If I made a wager in PA, they won't show a cash out option for that PA wager when I'm in NJ and vice versa. You should check in the state where you made the bet and see if there is a cash out option.
Speaking of hedging, I had a $18K+ parlay ticket in the wild card round where the last leg was Houston ML vs Pittssburgh.
I would hate to not get anything, so I considered wagering almost $9K on Pittsburgh +3 and hope to middle which wasn't very likely. Instead, I fell asleep and woke up when the game has already started. So, I walked down to the sportsbook at Hard Rock casino to watch the game and hoped to bet the 2nd half to hedge if necessary. When the 1st half was over with the score of 7-6, it was too much of sweat seeing how the game went on so right before the 2nd half started I walked up to the betting desk to wager $9K on Pittsburgh 2nd half and the clerk told me they were closed. How lucky was I that they closed before I could make the bet since I would have lost that bet and give up 1/2 of the parlay winnings. If I was staying at Borgata, I lost $9K for sure since their betting window would have been open. So, I got $9K lucky.
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Quote Originally Posted by Squiggy63:
I have an open $25 parlay that pays 3500. I did it at the beginning of October with A couple of Moneyline college football teams and the Patriots to win the Super Bowl ( last leg). DraftKings has never even offered me a cash out the entire year, which I thought was strange. After being forced to root for the Patriots all year, I would like to get something out of it. I do think Seattle wins the game rather easily. I came up with two options( other than ride it out and go for it) I drop $2300 on the money line Seattle to win 1000. Patriots win I win 1200 Seattle wins I win 1000. option two. Do nothing and pray sometime during the game pats have a lead and the odds are close to a pick em. Then I would bet 1800 on Seattle ML and pretty much win 1800 either way, which is kind of what I’m looking for Any other ideas? If I do nothing, Seattle could jump on them early and the party’s over.
DK always offered me a cash out on all of my parlays no matter how dead the bets were that I made, so are you sure they haven't offered you a cash out at all? Honestly, it makes no sense unless DK's AI thinks it's 100% certain that the Patriots will lose the Super Bowl but I highly doubt that's the case.
One thing I did notice when DK does not offer me a cash out option is when the bet is made in a different state.
I live in PA but I also spend most of my time in Atlantic City casino hotels. If I made a wager in PA, they won't show a cash out option for that PA wager when I'm in NJ and vice versa. You should check in the state where you made the bet and see if there is a cash out option.
Speaking of hedging, I had a $18K+ parlay ticket in the wild card round where the last leg was Houston ML vs Pittssburgh.
I would hate to not get anything, so I considered wagering almost $9K on Pittsburgh +3 and hope to middle which wasn't very likely. Instead, I fell asleep and woke up when the game has already started. So, I walked down to the sportsbook at Hard Rock casino to watch the game and hoped to bet the 2nd half to hedge if necessary. When the 1st half was over with the score of 7-6, it was too much of sweat seeing how the game went on so right before the 2nd half started I walked up to the betting desk to wager $9K on Pittsburgh 2nd half and the clerk told me they were closed. How lucky was I that they closed before I could make the bet since I would have lost that bet and give up 1/2 of the parlay winnings. If I was staying at Borgata, I lost $9K for sure since their betting window would have been open. So, I got $9K lucky.
Thank you for the response. I’m thinking the same thing, I just want to get something out of it, even if it means taking a small hit if the patriots win. I’m not a huge gambler so even if I walked away with $500 I look at it as a great couple nights out.
I made two parlays in Oct. with the same college football underdogs for $25. Besides the Patriots, I had the Bears in the other one. Immediately after the college teams won, I was offered roughly $100 for each of those Super Bowl teams to cash out ..that pats cash out was there for about a week and I have been looking literally every few days for two plus months and it never came back. The Bears was always adjusting and moving up as they kept getting closer and advanced in the playoffs. I haven’t changed states from where the bet was placed. I just find it so odd.
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@DJK
Thank you for the response. I’m thinking the same thing, I just want to get something out of it, even if it means taking a small hit if the patriots win. I’m not a huge gambler so even if I walked away with $500 I look at it as a great couple nights out.
I made two parlays in Oct. with the same college football underdogs for $25. Besides the Patriots, I had the Bears in the other one. Immediately after the college teams won, I was offered roughly $100 for each of those Super Bowl teams to cash out ..that pats cash out was there for about a week and I have been looking literally every few days for two plus months and it never came back. The Bears was always adjusting and moving up as they kept getting closer and advanced in the playoffs. I haven’t changed states from where the bet was placed. I just find it so odd.
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