49ers @ Green Bay

This has worked out just the way I wished. The Packers defense is suspect. The defensive line is below average. Not good playing against a team that will pound it. Lacy will get hit hard and often. That Bears defense doesn't even compare to what they will face Sunday. They are poised to make a long run. Defense will travel. I have been calling these Niner games pretty accurately. I think they make it to the Superbowl. This bunch prides on that by any means necessary motto. Lets face it Kaep puts up BIG #'s against the Pack. I will be putting $5500 of my hard won money on them.. I want to try to catch the best line possible. Go 49ers!!

My question for everyone is....Which direction will this line move? Comments will help all.

Im pretty sure the PUBLIC IS ON SF... If the public naturally moves this line.. Its should easily go to Gb+3... The public always has more money as a whole... But it doesnt mean the public will move lines... Sharps can move lines with little to no money... 

 

You have no clue what the meaning of "public/sharp" is....and you prove it every week

In response to the trolls,, i will have a LONG write up and it will be titled SHARPS VS JOE PUB.. SIMPLY BECAUSE TROLLS DESERVE IT...

@XYZ So you think the public will be on the Niners? I thought the same last week and everyone pounded the Cardinals. I think the Packers weather perception mixed with the Rodgers rod riders may go push pts to GB.

Here's another flip flop... Majority of teams that are in must win situations lost,, meanwhile majority of teams that didnt need to win,, all won,,, i mean look at SD,BAL,PITT,, SD being the weakest  team overall and statistically shouldnt make it... This chain of reaction i tellya,, Greenbay did it back when they won the SB,, If you go back and look at teams that inched their way into the SB,, and also in a ten year period,, there has only been 1 Superbowl where the two best teams "record wise"  went head on in the SB,, that would be when the saints played the colts...

I disagree I don't think public is sold on Niners...Rodgers back. In Green Bay getting points...I think the line stays the same. And I am on the Niners 

Look at what a backup quarterback and a good kicker did to The patriots....

Seattle is another team that came in last year and just Crushed teams... They come out of no where... This year CINCINATTI is crushing teams... 

Players are like stock in the market... And selling jerseys is the name of the game... thats why the QB is the most protected Asset... 

HoldingXYZ is COOKED

Im not cooked.. But i love cooking books,,  i'll cook yours as well.. 

Nice write up.  We have the same thoughts exactly!  Glad to see I'm not the only one.  You, my friend, will be #winning!

71% on the 9ers, the highest of any game.

And considering the public won both 70% last week, and they come into the playoffs winning 4 straight weeks with week 17 the best record, I highly, highly doubt the public wins this week.

Has nothing to do with games being fixed and alot to do with simply bad, bad capping of games but the masses.

9ers are not the same team they were last year, their game has fallen way off, not a good indication for a defending conference champ.

After reading many threads here on the site, seems most are living in last year, 9ers not the same team.

The team winning the most  consecutive games coming in  to playoffs is historically a bad ATS bet, I've been posting this for 4 years now to the tune of 1-3 ATS and 1-3 SU, in their opening playoff game and 1-4 ATS and SU overall,  including huge favorites losing SU, like Denver last year.

Yet year after year we see the same love for the hottest team come playoff time and we see it again this year, and that folks is piss-poor capping.

 

The weather could factor if there is snow. Defenses always play bad in snow..they can't back up on pass defense have a hard time tackling etc. It may snow in philly again which favors philly and the ground game. Watch the weather..if it snows take the over.

As far as GB poor defense, Pack with Rodgers in the line-up have outgained opp by 55.5 ruhing yards per game.

9ers by 41.6

Even with GB poor defense they create a bigger advantage.

Rodgers ave per pass att, 7.78

Kap 6.52

Ave per pass att differential..........................Pack 1.47

9ers 1.23

Even with the Packs poor pass defense they create a bigger advantge.

And remember last year the masses were on GB over 9ers, and I have already seen write-ups by guys on GB last year that are now on 9ers this year.

The tendency for many is they fell good about backing teams that were successful last year, even if they lose they still fell good about the bet even though there is little evidence to back such things up.

That's why they backed GB last year because 9ers with Kap had no prior success and Rodgers with GB has won a SB.

I add the snow would neutralize the SF defense as well. Rodgers could have a field day.

Weather will play a factor in this game.... Going to be single digits or below with wind chill....