🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

Fubah's 2024 weekly results:
-----------------------------------------

Week 01:   1 - 0
Week 02:   3 - 1  (Losers: -115)
Week 03:   5 - 2  (Losers: -110, *-175)
Week 04:   6 - 2  (Losers: -250, -180)
Week 05:   5 - 2  (Losers: *-230, -175)
Week 06:   6 - 0
Week 07:   8 - 4  (Losers: *-108, -115, -153, *-210)
Week 08:   5 - 2  (Losers: -120, -125)
Week 09:   9 - 8  (Losers: -105; +1.5 -120; +17.5 -250; +3 -142; +3.5 -150; -150; +3.5 -180; -105)
Week 10:   6 - 4  (Losers: -4 140; +120; +8 -128; -127)

YTD:  54 - 25      (15 - 6 *Best Bets)

*Note: After week 08 I was  39 - 13 ...a 75% HOT STREAK that I wrote I knew could not sustain, so I reduced all bet sizes for week 09 anticipating regression, which did occur as expected..... Smart strategies save $$$!

TOP fieldgoal kickers?

             (at least 13 attempts)

100%   Bates, LIONS (14/14)                  perfect 3 of 3 from 50+
95.8%   Boswell, STEELERS               awesome 6 of 7 from 50+
94.7%   Grupe, SAINTS                      perfect 3 of 3 from 50+
94.1%   McLaughlin, BUCS                 awesome 6 of 7 from 50+
92.9%   Little, JAGUARS                     perfect 2 of 2 from 50+
92.6%   Seibert, COMMANDOS      only 1 of 3 from 50+
92.3%   Folk, TITANS                         perfect 3 of 3 from 50+
92.3%   Pineiro, PANTHERS                     1 of 1 from 50+
91.7%   Aubrey, Dallas                       awesome 9 of 10 from 50+
91.7%   Ryland, CARDS                      perfect 2 of 2 from 50+
90.5%   Dicker, CHARGERS               awesome 4 of 5 from 50+
90.0%   Butker, KC                          only 2 of 4 from 50*

WORST? (among those still employed)

70.8%  Koo, FALCONS (17/24)         only 5 of 8 from 50+

YTD:  54 - 25      (15 - 6 *Best Bets) 

 BEST TEAMS for 1stQ scores:

+8.3 pts  Vikings
+7.0 pts  Bucs
+6.3 pts  Cards
+6.0 pts  Texans

WORST teams for 1stQ scoring:

+1.1 pts  daaaaBears
+1.4 pts  RAMS
+1.6 pts  Philadelphia!
+2.0 pts  Denver

WARNING: HOT STREAK ALERT!

Due for a loss?

9 straight  CHIEFS
7 straight  LIONS
5 straight  BUFFY
5 straight  EAGLES

Conversely, are these due for a win?

5 straight losses  Raiders
5 straight losses  Giants

INDIANAPOLIS -- Two games after a sudden quarterback change, the Indianapolis Colts have done an about-face and will return to Anthony Richardson as the starter for Sunday's game against the New York Jets.

OK...now I am leaning to the JETS....not certain yet

Aaron Rodgers wants to play again next year?     

TNF:

Two evenly matched teams imo.

Truly this one could go either way in a close match or could even be a blowout either way. There doesn't seem to be any clear advantages of taking one over the other. Both teams healthy. Philly on a streak and could be due for an upset...but otoh COMMANDOS have only played 2 superior teams and lost both - albeit both were one possession losses and only by a point to PITTS. On a neutral field this should be a pick'em.

The total of 49 looks a bit more intriguing though as both these teams love to score.
By my estimate, when facing GOOD or at least mediocre teams, EAGLES games went over that 49 mark twice, under it twice, and one push......BUT COMMANDOS games were 5 - 1 OVER 49 pts...

Watch & wait for me

Fubah everything above you said is right on point do we take into account that they are playing on a short week I am sure we have to take this into account too

My thoughts exactly

G.L

@vc1028

 TY!    Yes good point, short week, so I really don't expect patterns will deviate much if any...

BoL with your bets tonight my friend!

Well, slow start for each on their respective opening drives...

Mid 1stQ, no score, Eagles started their drive backed up deep...moved it  a couple yards, got sacked and had to punt.

Philly should be leading 3 - 0 right now.

Now WASHY gets their 2nd possession but they'll start from around their 40. They can grab momentum with a good drive for points here!  I think they will....LIVE BET: COMMANDOS +10.5 -350 alt  *BB

TOUCHDOWN Commandos!!

@fubah2

@trust-me

BoL with your bet tonight!

HT shtats:

Commandos lead 7 - 3, but Philly has slight edge in stats

1st downs:   Philly  11 - 7
Net yards:   Philly 174 - 124
OFF YPP:    WASH 4.8 - 4.1
Turnovers:           none
Penalty yds:    negligible diff
48+yd drives:  WASH 1 - 0

COMMANDOS get the ball to start 2H

*I need at least 10 pts scored in the 2H or I am ph*cked!

BEAGLES score but miss the kick.....3rd missed kick tonight.... might well cost them the game!

Commandos being outplayed but driving toward a FGA

WOW!   Down to the 21 in easy FGA range and on 3rd and one they blow it....then try on 4th and blow their chance to take the lead.....

HORRIBLE play calling!

AS a result, Washington will now LOSE the game for sure.

Keep in mind too, they got a fluke win over the BEARS on an improbable "Hail Mary" play....pure luck.

They will drop to 7 - 4  but in truth, this is a 6 - 5 team....

TOUCHDOWN BEAGLES

They lead 19 - 10 with under 5 mins to play.

They have absolutely no valid reason to try and score further - only to run the clock after the COMMANDOS phck up their next possession and the BEAGLES get it back with maybe 3 mins left. 

However, I am in big trouble if COMMANDOS decide to give Philly a turnover or some unforced error to give the BEAGLES a free score when they DON'T need it....

UN-phcking-believable!  First play right after I type that, Daniels throws a pass directly to a PHILLY defender at the WASHINGTON 46....The way they have been running the ball, they will keep it on the ground and gash the COMMANDOS for another score....

UN-phcking-believable!

They just did exactly what I wrote on how the COMMANDOS would blow it and Philly would score when they had no reason to even try....