#1 Seed a pickem

I am gonna do some research and see what history says in same scenario

Eagles were a dog in 2018 and won 

Panthers 2016  -2.5 and won

I don't really understand trend betting in general, but this is by far the worst

You might as well just flip a coin

2013 Falcons -2.5  won by 2

from what I see Home team wins

coming into the Rams game on Saturday   a road fav of 6+ was 0-5 ATS and 5-0 Over    i believe this trend will continue for a long time as they dont happen often 

Eagles were no. 1 in my power ratings

Falcons were +3.5 , 9ers won 28-24

9ers were higher rated on my Power Ratings.

Also 9ers 2011/2012 

9ers +3.5 over Saints.

9ers higher rated in my PR

Denver 7th in my PR with Bills 4th

Those trends are nice and may still work but I am pointing out this is a completely different  situation then those other games.

Denver is not a very good no.1 seed while those other home dogs were the better team except Falcons who lost ATS as a home dog , all the winning teams were the better team but playing an opp with more experience and a team with more success which makes them overvalued on the line.

Totally different here. Bills are the better team and with more experience and more success then Denver.

I see this talked about online and I think espn but it is far from the same situations.

Just pointing this out guys, if you want to play those trends by all means do it but try to understand it is a difference that alot of times people don't bring up this difference. 

They only bring up what supports their play and/or what they believe  will happen in the game.

Don't let me talk you out of playing this trend if you like it, it could win but to say it is the same situation is incorrect

Here is another home dog being talked about online and espn.

96/97 Panthers home dog to Cowboys.

Cowboys 3 time SB champs and just won SB they year before but did not cover the spread and the only games they failed to cover in their 3 SB winning season.

Game was boy up 3 with Steelers driving for possible go ahead well into 4th quarter or a game timing FG.

Boys were past their prime.

Now the next year 1996.......

Panthers margin of victory 9.3 pts ...... by 6

Boys 2.3 pts

QBPR diffential ......

Panthers +6.3.........by 20.6

Boys (-14.3)

QB Passer defense ......

Panthers no .1 in the league 73.5........ by 20.7

Boys 20th in the league 94.2

Bills 6.8 pt margin .....by 1.5

Denver 5.3 

QBPR diffential ......

Bills 22.4 .......13.4

Denver 9.1

Defensive QBPR .......

Denver 5th 78.7..... by 1.5

Bills 6th 80.2

How are these 2 situations the same ?

Not even close.

Home dog Panthers clearly the better team.

Home dog Denver not the better team.

In every one of these home dog situations that were brought up online the better team won ATS which was the home team.

The Falcons home dog loss 2012/2013 was never brought up but the better team won again, the road 9ers wre better.

Bills the better team but not that much better when comparing to those other games being brought up.

Look at how much the 96 Panthers were better then Dallas.

Panthers the new kid's on the block while Dallas was proven winner is the only reasons Panthers were a home dog.

It is the same story in those other games being brought up, the proven winners were road favorites but not the better teams.

I don't think Bills are that much better but this is not the same situation as those other games.