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Whisky's Winners: Long-time Capper, First Time Poster

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Posted: #126
DEFINITELY a play on the wizards whiskey,in my view no way in hell sharps wud be positioning to get a better price on the blazers away from home showing regression recently up against a plucky,talented wiz squad that just slayed a western giant at home a cupple of days back.....even without that movement i was loving the wizards,tho that xtra cupple of points would have been nice.....like it man .....there is also a strong tendency for elite teams to take their foot right off the gas and relax a touch leading up to all-star break,right??just in my experience i have noticed this....perhaps to avoid over-working or injuring players and extending their rest break??also these teams will have representatives in the game so try not to over-load them wen a chance for the break is arising
 
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Posted: #127
Grizzlies/Nuggs/Kings are also solid plays
 
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Posted: #128
Quote Originally Posted by syrup559:

I have been reading your thread and tailed you on a few games,just wanted to say thank you for your insight on your plays

.


Don't thank me, sir. You had the fortitude to trust me and make a play, thank you. I hope it continues to work out for you. 
 
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Posted: #129
Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:

DEFINITELY a play on the wizards whiskey,in my view no way in hell sharps wud be positioning to get a better price on the blazers away from home showing regression recently up against a plucky,talented wiz squad that just slayed a western giant at home a cupple of days back.....even without that movement i was loving the wizards,tho that xtra cupple of points would have been nice.....like it man .....there is also a strong tendency for elite teams to take their foot right off the gas and relax a touch leading up to all-star break,right??just in my experience i have noticed this....perhaps to avoid over-working or injuring players and extending their rest break??also these teams will have representatives in the game so try not to over-load them wen a chance for the break is arising

Definitely with you as far as the reasoning behind the line move. The sharps love the Wiz. They've been pounding them in a lot of key match-ups throughout the season.

In fact, when I hit the line earlier it steamed the Wiz from a pick'em to a -1 fav so there's prolly more sharp money flowing on Wiz at Pick and -1.

Only thing that worries me is the fact that statistically, Portland as a -4.5 fav is right on the money numbers wise, but OKC was actually deflated in the Wiz game, so it's probable this is a classic dummy line to try and get some public money on Portland.

Either way, win or lose, Wiz is the play in this situation whenever the value looks too good to be true. 
 
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Posted: #130
I'm really surprised line opened so low....

Was expecing Portland to be a 3.5 to 4 point favorite here on the road....

Not sure how to read this. I think UNDER might also be a play here Total seems a little high.
 
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Posted: #131
damn,you see the total line in the okc/memphis game,whiskey???opened at 191 and with 75%+ public tickets consistently on the over the line has moved DOWN to 186.5!!! to draw even more over bets....could be a blood-bath..no team can kill an over like memphis...and thunder cud be a little jaded 1st game back after a road-trip....only problem is the line has shifted so much i cant bet it cos all the value's gone.wish i had grabbed the under 191
 
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Posted: #132
THUNDER GRIZZ usually play on the under..... lotta games in the mid 80s to lowish 90s.....

Grizz are great at lowering FG% and if anyone is super familiar with KD it's the Grizz. They already beat them this year once... low scoring game.... pretty much swept in the playoffs last year after losing the first game of the series....

not familiar with their Back up though..... calathe or whatever his name is but Lee is pretty nice....
 
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Posted: #133
Another chicken dinner!!! 
 
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Posted: #134
looking good,whisky,just need free-throws....fingers crossed
 
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Posted: #135
great hit considering all brooklyns absentees whisky....nice roll buddy
 
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Posted: #136
Washington won easily, Over 208 just barely gets there in the Philly game.

Both plays win, 2-0 on the day. 

Tracked plays are now 14-4. 

Congrats to all who tailed today.

Awesome day 
 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:

great hit considering all brooklyns absentees whisky....nice roll buddy

Congrats to you my friend. 
 
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Posted: #138

You the man bro!!  Scared money makes no money...didn't go with the Wizards play but I went with that BK over and was MF'ing you all the way to the bank.  lolol..I thought I did the SUPERMUSH on you.  Great run buddy!!  Insight is awesome keep it up!!

 
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Posted: #139
Quote Originally Posted by SUPERMUSH:

You the man bro!!  Scared money makes no money...didn't go with the Wizards play but I went with that BK over and was MF'ing you all the way to the bank.  lolol..I thought I did the SUPERMUSH on you.  Great run buddy!!  Insight is awesome keep it up!!


Thank you, sir. I'm glad that play worked out for you. 
 
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Posted: #140
Let's keep it rolling tomorrow, gentlemen. Going to pinpoint a play a little later tomorrow. Won't be by a computer in the morning. 
 
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Posted: #141
Small board tonight. All lines that have been posted are pretty much on the money, however, interesting activity in the Pacers- Hawks game.

Opened at 4.5, steamed down to 3. This is interesting to me due to the fact that Pacers typically a public play as of late, and they are going up against a team that has given them trouble on their homecourt.

These two teams match-up rather well with each other, and I like the small home dog in this situation.

We missed out on early value, but it's very, very possible Hawks win this straight up without much trouble.

Expect a nailbiter, but I like the fact sharps likely took the Hawks.

One play for today:

Atlanta Hawks +3

Good luck
 
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Posted: #142
Whiskey interesting line to me is the total last game went under the total of 187 at 184 now same teams no injuries and the total is 199?
looks like an over play to me
 
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Posted: #143

regards

 
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Posted: #144
I'm on it. Thanks Whisky
 
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Posted: #145
Quote Originally Posted by noles252:

Whiskey interesting line to me is the total last game went under the total of 187 at 184 now same teams no injuries and the total is 199?
looks like an over play to me

I'm personally not playing the total, but I'll be honest, it's very, very tempting.

I see a 102-104, or 102-100, type game.

Over has tremendous value. Close games tend to go over the total, and if this is a close game, it will easily go over.

If you like the over, I say go for it, but I think a Hawks straight-up win is a "safer" play.

 
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Posted: #146
Quote Originally Posted by noles252:

Whiskey interesting line to me is the total last game went under the total of 187 at 184 now same teams no injuries and the total is 199?
looks like an over play to me
Stay away from the total here...... they set it perfectly. And should only move +1.5 or -1.5 from where it opened. Which is has already. 
 
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Posted: #147
Just seeing if you were on the same page with me. Good luck my friend I am sure I will be on both.
 
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Posted: #148
Had the game capped at 102 max for any team. Siding in favor of ATL and around mid 90's for Indy.... (94-97ish).... 

I guess I would lean under but just too unpredictable. If come out running like maniacs in the first half that might be enough to make it over. possessions and pace might slow down tremendously in the 4th quarter when they lock down on Defense. Seems likes its just to close to call..... really a gamble on the total IMO. I do like the hawks here as well..... would gladly take the 3 points for the home. 
 
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Posted: #149
Whisky so far every game that I really liked you were already on it too.

Any leans on this PHX game? 
 
 
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Posted: #150
Quote Originally Posted by GeneCam27:

Had the game capped at 102 max for any team. Siding in favor of ATL and around mid 90's for Indy.... (94-97ish).... 

I guess I would lean under but just too unpredictable. If come out running like maniacs in the first half that might be enough to make it over. possessions and pace might slow down tremendously in the 4th quarter when they lock down on Defense. Seems likes its just to close to call..... really a gamble on the total IMO. I do like the hawks here as well..... would gladly take the 3 points for the home. 

Cam, your post is pretty much why I lean more on the side here than a total.

The way I see it, Atlanta really should be a favorite -2, so if they're giving us +3 points, I have to take it every time in this situation.

Over is tough here because it can go real bad total-wise if Indiana quits at some point and lays down.
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