Thoughts on Game 3

Seems like almost everyone is on the Mavs for game 3, but I'm not too sure they can get it done. Boston is 6-0 on the road in the playoffs, and 33-14 in all away games this season. The Mavs are 5-3 at home in the playoffs, and 30-19 SU on the season at home. The Mavs actually have a better record in away games at 32-20. Dallas does not have a strong home court advantage. Boston's average margin in road games is +7.8 points. The Mavs win at home by a 3.4 point average margin. Boston has only been an away dog 3 times the entire season. They are 1-2 in those games. Two of these games were played without a starter. This line is definitely shaded, as the Mavs are desperate for a win. No way they would be favored if they had won a game in Boston. I've got Boston to win the series in 5 games, so I need the Mavs to win one game at home. If they do, it will more than likely be Game 3. Honestly, I'm not too confident that they do win a game, but I won't bet Boston this game. I'll probably bet the game live, depending on how it unfolds.

I've got Jayson Tatum to win MVP, and he will need one helluva finish for that ticket to cash.

I’m surprised that 7 of 8 quarters so far have gone under 

The public has been stubborn and emotional about Dallas. They were on Dallas +6.5 for both the first games too. 

But this game is an absolute skip. If Mavs don't get swept this is the game they'll win but you also can't trust it because it's an absolute mismatch on the court. 

Neither team is shooting the ball very well.  I need Tatum to get hot and knock down some 3s so I have a shot at him getting MVP. 

I agree.  The Mavs desperately need the game, but the Celtics are clearly the better team.  I'm laying off and waiting to see if I like anything as the game progresses.  I can't just bet Dallas because they are due.  They really should not be favored here.  

lot of people talking about teams down 2-0 in finals usually win game 3...Dallas at home will be the deciding factor for this game...Kyrie will eventually get going..blah blah.

Boston has pretty much dominated the 1st two games...and that's without Tatum or Brown having huge games.  The C's defense is what is surprising so far in this series.  Kyrie having trouble getting anything easy and hasn't hit a 3 pointer yet.  IF the Boston D keeps that up, and then the Boston stars get some big point totals, this could be a sweep.  I expect Dallas to also get a win, but they need to really step it up and Boston would have to have a bad game.  If Boston plays the way they have and the stars get it going, not sure how Dallas can get back in this. 

@HipB23

 I would not count Dallas out. They have a very solid team all around although Boston is better but doesn't mean they will always win. Home court advantage counts for more than people are giving credit for. 

Boston is a bad match up for Dallas, plain and simple.  Also, Dallas lacks the offensive firepower to keep up with Boston.  There are literally zero reasons to back Dallas, other than they are at home and in a must win situation.  

Boston is on a mission this year and they will be very motivated to try to win this and close this series out imo.  I'm on Boston +1.5 for G3. If they lose, I am doubling down on Boston in G4.

@CalBear2009

 agree and concur, bad matchup plain and simple. Dallas matched up well with Minny but not here. 

@Jimmy_Cats

 Here is the way I look at it...in the last 6 meetings the mavericks have not covered the spread yet... except for the push in the last game....it seems to me the Celtics own them so I'm sticking with the Celtics till it proves otherwise 

Porzingis will probably miss Game 3 it looks like (if not more).

Not sure if his injury is one of those kinds where if he can play through the pain, he can; or they'll sit him to avoid risking making it worse and ruining his career.

I guess Game 3 now is a test of Boston's depth and next man up mentality; or one of those "star players out, don't matter" games.

The only player softer than Tatum is Gobert.  Tatum gotta be the most overrated superstar player in the league. He can’t drive left.  90% of the time that he drives left he passes it or step back jumper. Warriors exposed him two years ago in the finals and he still hasn’t fixed it.  I had Celtics winning this series in 6 or 7. But probably ends in 5. 

Definitely will help the over. The over will hit in one of these games in Dallas. Porzingis is a 10x better defender and rim protector than Gobert ever has been. 

@LedZe

 Public was all over Boston and everry  tout  and their  momma too. 

so Porzingis dislocated something and is day to day rare leg injury.

@Flyguy1700

Dallas' record is better on the road than at home; not saying that playing back at Dallas for Game 3 won't be a boost for them.

Sometimes home court doesn't even seem to matter - look at the Timberwolves/Nuggets series for example.

It did play a factor in the Pacers/Knicks series though - but mainly because the refs were giving Knicks all the good whistles when in NY, but then not when in IND.

Think refs will be cooking for Dallas at home and it's a matter of whether or not Boston can just shoot better (than Game 2) and win anyway.

gambling is a epidemic. luka's on pain killing injections for his chest injury

Nba most likely lining up Marc Davis for Mavs at home.  I will auto bet Dallas any game he is doing.

Only sharps were on Boston

The vast majority of the public, the whole media including media personalities, celebrities, athletes, etc were all on Dallas +6.5. Prior to Game 1 Sportsbooks were literally on social media for a week campaigning that Dallas is the play. 

During big events like this they don't care about sharps. Most of the money comes from squares. 

as predicted. Marc Davis sent in to save Dallas this game.  Mavs ML for me in game 3. I’ll be on the over in game 4 most likely.