Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Scal, I really think you're reaching on this one. I can counter all these points and then some but I'll stick to the most important one you brought up. The possibility of redemption back in Los Angeles (where the Clippers lost to heartbreaks) is exactly why the Spurs will have to close the series out tonight. They simply can't afford to give LA that opportunity. There is no margin for error for the Spurs, this is also their game 7! Good luck, buddy.
Of course there is margin for error.
The Spurs are up 3-2 and are the champs. They don't fear going to LA for a game 7. They fear no team, including the Warriors.
This isn't the Heat and Lebron. This Clips team is beatable in game 6 or 7. But there is a spread here.
I really think you are dancing with the devil. And now the line is up to 6. We can be pretty certain that's not sharp money moving it.
Comparing this game to the OKC game 5 last year in terms of the refs screwing the Clips is fine.
But there are other elements to this game 5 loss that are distinct and stand out from last year's Okc game 5 debacle, which makes laying the number you are laying very shaky.
This year, not one (the Reggie Jackon out of bounds call last year), but several calls went against the Clips in Game 5:
1) the blake travel
2) the barnes goaltend
3) the cp3 tech
4) the JJ Reddick phantom foul (his 6th too!)
If one, or two of those calls goes the clips way, there isn't even an opportunity for a goaltend to end it because the clips would have had a 3/4 pt lead that the Spurs would have had to overcome.
But they all went the Spurs way.
Not only that, but look at how poorly the Clips played and still came within a goaltend of winning.
1-19 from three! That won't happen again. One or two threes fall? Clips win.
Blake 1-9 in the fourth. Yes he's gassed and we know why (no bench) but that won't happen two games in a row.
This Spurs team is a goaltend and a blake turnover in game 2 from being down 3-2 or worse.
The Spurs have impressed me one time this series. In their other two wins they needed:
1) ref screwing and a goaltend
2) a late Blake fumble and a conversion at the other end
The Spurs should think themselves very fortunate to be up 3-2. Now they are going to lay 5-6 and put their foot on the throat of this high-powered clippers team in an elimination game? No one will be laying down here. This isn't the Raps or Mavs or Celtics. This is one of the best in the west, a flawed best, but still, one of the best.
Since the all star break, ONE game separates the Spurs and clips in win loss record, so for all the lauding of the Spurs after the break, the clips have been there neck and neck getting the job done too. And they are healthy (very important and key to why they failed in prior years).
And again, let's not forget all the Sterling adversity that came with a dragged out Warrior series (draining them emotionally and consequently, as the series wore on physically), and a very tough OKC series that the clips had to deal with, literally shunning their owner the entire time.
That is long gone and is a psychological barrier they need not overcome this year.
The refs will not be pro-Spurs after doc got fined and went line by line through the calls I mentioned above, to embarrass that reffing crew (as they should have been). So that should be in your cap (I.e. Less red favoritism).
This will not be a blowout so a 'pullaway' as you noted in the OP, will have to come late imo and that leaves you with a 3/4pt game and free throws vs. A clips team that is fighting for its life and in your case a 5 pt line...very tenuous.
This may well rank among the most important games in Clips history! And we have to lay points here to back the Spurs? I'm not doing that. I'm taking what is now 6 and I'm glad the public gave me another half.
And what about the NBA wanting a game 7? Could that subconsciously alter some calls here by the refs in the Clips favor? You and I both know the NBA would love a game 7 from their best first round matchup by far, and their reigning champs participating in it.
I'm not gong large as this spot doesn't deserve a huge bet. But like you, a few units will do the trick.
I'm gonna have to leave ya with what Knish said to Mikey in the Russian bathhouse when he needed money to pay KGB: "I don't doubt your talent kid, but this time...I'm gonna have to say no (to the Spurs)"
Clips +6 and may the best capper win
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