The close out game is often tough, but not always. It's tough when you have an aimless, heartless, leaderless team like the Bulls, playing against the JV Bucks in the Eastern Conference (where nobody has to really try until they have to) but it is easy when you have a talented, prideful team like the Warriors playing an upstart team like NO in the West, where nothing can be taken for granted. The Spurs have a history of closing teams out at home in emphatic fashion. The Clippers, meanwhile, have a history of choking away games and series in emphatic fashion.
Having failed to take a stranglehold of the series in game 4 (and giving back home court advantage to the Clippers) I think the Spurs will be more focused than ever to close this thing out and not have to return to LA (where winning three games is unlikely). The Clippers will, once again, have to rely on their starters (who must be running on fumes by now), unless Austin Rivers has another huge game (unlikely). They will also be demoralized, knowing they squandered not one, but two chances to take control of this series. This will be on the back of their minds the entire game, something they have to fight against and push back if they have any chance of taking this game.
So not only will the Clippers be fighting their bodies (summoning it to do great things on short rest) but also their minds (or doubts). They will have to play nearly flawless basketball to win game 6, but I doubt they can do that. Not against a great team that smells blood and that already let them off the hook once in this series.
The way I see this game, either the Spurs pull away early or they pull away late...but, at some point, they will pull away.
Spurs -5 (bought the hook) for 5 units
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
The close out game is often tough, but not always. It's tough when you have an aimless, heartless, leaderless team like the Bulls, playing against the JV Bucks in the Eastern Conference (where nobody has to really try until they have to) but it is easy when you have a talented, prideful team like the Warriors playing an upstart team like NO in the West, where nothing can be taken for granted. The Spurs have a history of closing teams out at home in emphatic fashion. The Clippers, meanwhile, have a history of choking away games and series in emphatic fashion.
Having failed to take a stranglehold of the series in game 4 (and giving back home court advantage to the Clippers) I think the Spurs will be more focused than ever to close this thing out and not have to return to LA (where winning three games is unlikely). The Clippers will, once again, have to rely on their starters (who must be running on fumes by now), unless Austin Rivers has another huge game (unlikely). They will also be demoralized, knowing they squandered not one, but two chances to take control of this series. This will be on the back of their minds the entire game, something they have to fight against and push back if they have any chance of taking this game.
So not only will the Clippers be fighting their bodies (summoning it to do great things on short rest) but also their minds (or doubts). They will have to play nearly flawless basketball to win game 6, but I doubt they can do that. Not against a great team that smells blood and that already let them off the hook once in this series.
The way I see this game, either the Spurs pull away early or they pull away late...but, at some point, they will pull away.
good luck bb, you are one of very few decent analysis cappers in this site, dont get me wrong, always love to read your posts but my gut tells 7 games. if clips won game 4, they can do it again. will check for live bet, if i see opportunity, will take it with high odds, definitely worth the risk
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good luck bb, you are one of very few decent analysis cappers in this site, dont get me wrong, always love to read your posts but my gut tells 7 games. if clips won game 4, they can do it again. will check for live bet, if i see opportunity, will take it with high odds, definitely worth the risk
Good luck, guy. Don't get me wrong, either. I was rooting for the Clipps and thought they had a great chance. But they blew it. Tough to recover from that.
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Good luck, guy. Don't get me wrong, either. I was rooting for the Clipps and thought they had a great chance. But they blew it. Tough to recover from that.
Gonna tease the Clipps to the Bucks.....hopefully we both win.....See a tough game and the Clippers keep this very close.....
Spurs + Bulls is a winner.
Bulls will play 100% focus to avoid a game 7 and save juice for next serie.
And I join BB on the spurs. I think Clipps are done now. You just don't beat the spurs twice in a row on their floor. (BB I told you for game 5 that it's very tough to win twice in a row vs pop)
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Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:
Gonna tease the Clipps to the Bucks.....hopefully we both win.....See a tough game and the Clippers keep this very close.....
Spurs + Bulls is a winner.
Bulls will play 100% focus to avoid a game 7 and save juice for next serie.
And I join BB on the spurs. I think Clipps are done now. You just don't beat the spurs twice in a row on their floor. (BB I told you for game 5 that it's very tough to win twice in a row vs pop)
If coaching has anything to do with this game..........well..........you know.......it's that... I 've been here, done this before and that's why they pay me the big bucks guy! BOL
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If coaching has anything to do with this game..........well..........you know.......it's that... I 've been here, done this before and that's why they pay me the big bucks guy! BOL
"clippers running on fumes" - they've done this all season and are conditioned to do so. It's par for the course now. I'd be more concerned about extended minutes for Duncan in these recent games and the effect on him, which will (likely) rear its ugly head in one of these games.
"austin rivers has another huge game" - he didn't have a huge game in game 5, as expected (2 points). And still the clippers came within a goaltend of winning it. He'll give more than 2 this game just like he gave more in the Game 4 victory.
"Clippers are demoralized" - if anything we would to back the clips off a loss not a win, like we do all year in the regular season in various situational spots. We get that spot here no matter how brutal the previous loss was. And remember that loss was not an Allen 3 (I.e. The other team did you in). You screwed yourselves. You literally put the L in the final score. That leaves the door open for redemption and doesn't eliminate any and all confidence levels.
In addition that game 7 intensity from the Clips you wanted in game 5 will be here in full force in game 6. The Spurs know they are more than capable of beating the clips at home even if they lose this one, while the clips go home for good if they lose. It provides more impetus for one team to leave it all on the floor in an elimination game.
No one thought Dallas could take the Spurs to 7 last year. And that Spurs team was superior to this one. And that dallas team had nowhere near the clippers level of talent.
Spurs needed a 1-9 blake fourth (awful) and s goaltend to steal one in LA (and 7-16 FT's from Jordan to boot). Neither will happen again (although I have no idea how jordan will shoot but I'll only concede "slightly better" since the loss was on him). Add you get a CP3 who can light up the scoreboard at any moment and I want no part of 5/5.5 points being laid here.
This is a fully healthy, fully motivated clipper team with a new owner in a season after Sterling-gate partially derailed their previous year. To not get to a game 7 at a minimum would be an unadulterated failure on numerous levels. And you get a nice chunk of points even if they falter. History matters and the thunder series and how that ended last year is resonating here too.
I'll take the points. GL.
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Disagree on several fronts BB.
"clippers running on fumes" - they've done this all season and are conditioned to do so. It's par for the course now. I'd be more concerned about extended minutes for Duncan in these recent games and the effect on him, which will (likely) rear its ugly head in one of these games.
"austin rivers has another huge game" - he didn't have a huge game in game 5, as expected (2 points). And still the clippers came within a goaltend of winning it. He'll give more than 2 this game just like he gave more in the Game 4 victory.
"Clippers are demoralized" - if anything we would to back the clips off a loss not a win, like we do all year in the regular season in various situational spots. We get that spot here no matter how brutal the previous loss was. And remember that loss was not an Allen 3 (I.e. The other team did you in). You screwed yourselves. You literally put the L in the final score. That leaves the door open for redemption and doesn't eliminate any and all confidence levels.
In addition that game 7 intensity from the Clips you wanted in game 5 will be here in full force in game 6. The Spurs know they are more than capable of beating the clips at home even if they lose this one, while the clips go home for good if they lose. It provides more impetus for one team to leave it all on the floor in an elimination game.
No one thought Dallas could take the Spurs to 7 last year. And that Spurs team was superior to this one. And that dallas team had nowhere near the clippers level of talent.
Spurs needed a 1-9 blake fourth (awful) and s goaltend to steal one in LA (and 7-16 FT's from Jordan to boot). Neither will happen again (although I have no idea how jordan will shoot but I'll only concede "slightly better" since the loss was on him). Add you get a CP3 who can light up the scoreboard at any moment and I want no part of 5/5.5 points being laid here.
This is a fully healthy, fully motivated clipper team with a new owner in a season after Sterling-gate partially derailed their previous year. To not get to a game 7 at a minimum would be an unadulterated failure on numerous levels. And you get a nice chunk of points even if they falter. History matters and the thunder series and how that ended last year is resonating here too.
I've got a pretty good amount on Clips to win the series at +185. Trying to decide whether to sit pat or put some money on Spurs ML. Any thoughts on strategies here?
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BB and Scal both with persuasive writeups!!
I've got a pretty good amount on Clips to win the series at +185. Trying to decide whether to sit pat or put some money on Spurs ML. Any thoughts on strategies here?
I predict you will realize history does not matter very soon. This game is capped perfectly again. To try and look for an edge vs the line with history is a waste of time imho.
But, it is fun to read your work ups and debate so ty for your effort. This game is pretty simple imo....do spurs hit there 3's. If they do it could get ugly. If they shoot ok/poor it will be close. If they build a house they will lose. They won't shoot terrible at home in a closeout game so it will be close(decided in last 3-4 mins) or a blow out. Heavy edge to the spurs for obv reasons but the number is bang on.
Not touching it but spurs ml gun to head. Have spurs series for heaps already.
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I predict you will realize history does not matter very soon. This game is capped perfectly again. To try and look for an edge vs the line with history is a waste of time imho.
But, it is fun to read your work ups and debate so ty for your effort. This game is pretty simple imo....do spurs hit there 3's. If they do it could get ugly. If they shoot ok/poor it will be close. If they build a house they will lose. They won't shoot terrible at home in a closeout game so it will be close(decided in last 3-4 mins) or a blow out. Heavy edge to the spurs for obv reasons but the number is bang on.
Not touching it but spurs ml gun to head. Have spurs series for heaps already.
I've got a pretty good amount on Clips to win the series at +185. Trying to decide whether to sit pat or put some money on Spurs ML. Any thoughts on strategies here?
That was a ballsy bet Lit. I couldn't of made that. I'm not sure this is the right spot to hedge. A game 7 is a pure hedge where you'll get slightly + money on the Spurs line.
If I had the +185 in game 6, I'd just have to ride it out as elucidated above. You were a goaltend away from a stranglehold on this series and getting guaranteed money on a hedge if the Clips were up 3-2 (as the Spurs series line would have been nice + money). It's just bad luck.
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Quote Originally Posted by Liturgy_of_Fade:
BB and Scal both with persuasive writeups!!
I've got a pretty good amount on Clips to win the series at +185. Trying to decide whether to sit pat or put some money on Spurs ML. Any thoughts on strategies here?
That was a ballsy bet Lit. I couldn't of made that. I'm not sure this is the right spot to hedge. A game 7 is a pure hedge where you'll get slightly + money on the Spurs line.
If I had the +185 in game 6, I'd just have to ride it out as elucidated above. You were a goaltend away from a stranglehold on this series and getting guaranteed money on a hedge if the Clips were up 3-2 (as the Spurs series line would have been nice + money). It's just bad luck.
With the ML on the Spurs at -230/-245, might be better just to chance at Spurs cover the spread. I am not too big a fan of putting up 240 to win 100. It is the Spurs DNA, Pop and Spurs do not let up when they sense victory. Look at the Finals last year, they do not let up.
Your prob right here.....spurs -5 vs ml is a better value play.
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Quote Originally Posted by NBANFLFAN5:
With the ML on the Spurs at -230/-245, might be better just to chance at Spurs cover the spread. I am not too big a fan of putting up 240 to win 100. It is the Spurs DNA, Pop and Spurs do not let up when they sense victory. Look at the Finals last year, they do not let up.
Your prob right here.....spurs -5 vs ml is a better value play.
"clippers running on fumes" - they've done this all season and are conditioned to do so. It's par for the course now. I'd be more concerned about extended minutes for Duncan in these recent games and the effect on him, which will (likely) rear its ugly head in one of these games.
"austin rivers has another huge game" - he didn't have a huge game in game 5, as expected (2 points). And still the clippers came within a goaltend of winning it. He'll give more than 2 this game just like he gave more in the Game 4 victory.
"Clippers are demoralized" - if anything we would to back the clips off a loss not a win, like we do all year in the regular season in various situational spots. We get that spot here no matter how brutal the previous loss was. And remember that loss was not an Allen 3 (I.e. The other team did you in). You screwed yourselves. You literally put the L in the final score. That leaves the door open for redemption and doesn't eliminate any and all confidence levels.
In addition that game 7 intensity from the Clips you wanted in game 5 will be here in full force in game 6. The Spurs know they are more than capable of beating the clips at home even if they lose this one, while the clips go home for good if they lose. It provides more impetus for one team to leave it all on the floor in an elimination game.
No one thought Dallas could take the Spurs to 7 last year. And that Spurs team was superior to this one. And that dallas team had nowhere near the clippers level of talent.
Spurs needed a 1-9 blake fourth (awful) and s goaltend to steal one in LA (and 7-16 FT's from Jordan to boot). Neither will happen again (although I have no idea how jordan will shoot but I'll only concede "slightly better" since the loss was on him). Add you get a CP3 who can light up the scoreboard at any moment and I want no part of 5/5.5 points being laid here.
This is a fully healthy, fully motivated clipper team with a new owner in a season after Sterling-gate partially derailed their previous year. To not get to a game 7 at a minimum would be an unadulterated failure on numerous levels. And you get a nice chunk of points even if they falter. History matters and the thunder series and how that ended last year is resonating here too.
I'll take the points. GL.
good write up but I couldnt disagree more about the psurs this year, since the all star break the spurs have looked better than the team that won it all last year. Once this team got healthy they are beating everyone, plus leonard even looks better than last year. I wouldnt want to play a team with as much experience as the spurs in a close out game at home. Love spurs here
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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Disagree on several fronts BB.
"clippers running on fumes" - they've done this all season and are conditioned to do so. It's par for the course now. I'd be more concerned about extended minutes for Duncan in these recent games and the effect on him, which will (likely) rear its ugly head in one of these games.
"austin rivers has another huge game" - he didn't have a huge game in game 5, as expected (2 points). And still the clippers came within a goaltend of winning it. He'll give more than 2 this game just like he gave more in the Game 4 victory.
"Clippers are demoralized" - if anything we would to back the clips off a loss not a win, like we do all year in the regular season in various situational spots. We get that spot here no matter how brutal the previous loss was. And remember that loss was not an Allen 3 (I.e. The other team did you in). You screwed yourselves. You literally put the L in the final score. That leaves the door open for redemption and doesn't eliminate any and all confidence levels.
In addition that game 7 intensity from the Clips you wanted in game 5 will be here in full force in game 6. The Spurs know they are more than capable of beating the clips at home even if they lose this one, while the clips go home for good if they lose. It provides more impetus for one team to leave it all on the floor in an elimination game.
No one thought Dallas could take the Spurs to 7 last year. And that Spurs team was superior to this one. And that dallas team had nowhere near the clippers level of talent.
Spurs needed a 1-9 blake fourth (awful) and s goaltend to steal one in LA (and 7-16 FT's from Jordan to boot). Neither will happen again (although I have no idea how jordan will shoot but I'll only concede "slightly better" since the loss was on him). Add you get a CP3 who can light up the scoreboard at any moment and I want no part of 5/5.5 points being laid here.
This is a fully healthy, fully motivated clipper team with a new owner in a season after Sterling-gate partially derailed their previous year. To not get to a game 7 at a minimum would be an unadulterated failure on numerous levels. And you get a nice chunk of points even if they falter. History matters and the thunder series and how that ended last year is resonating here too.
I'll take the points. GL.
good write up but I couldnt disagree more about the psurs this year, since the all star break the spurs have looked better than the team that won it all last year. Once this team got healthy they are beating everyone, plus leonard even looks better than last year. I wouldnt want to play a team with as much experience as the spurs in a close out game at home. Love spurs here
Thanks Scal. Unfortunately I think you're right. Tough break. Just amazing how some franchises cannot escape their history of losing (I'm a lifer Vikings fan..). But maybe bad luck in Game 5 turns to some good luck tonight and we get that Game 7. What a sporting night it would be this Saturday if that happens!
Is this pretty close to a career-defining series for Chris Paul? The dude turns 30 in 6 days. We've seen his contemporary D-Will regress quite a bit recently. CP3 is incredible and should have a pretty good legacy, but c'mon, he's got to beat a formidable foe in a playoff series, doesn't he?! Very big moment for him as well as Blake and Doc, obviously.
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Thanks Scal. Unfortunately I think you're right. Tough break. Just amazing how some franchises cannot escape their history of losing (I'm a lifer Vikings fan..). But maybe bad luck in Game 5 turns to some good luck tonight and we get that Game 7. What a sporting night it would be this Saturday if that happens!
Is this pretty close to a career-defining series for Chris Paul? The dude turns 30 in 6 days. We've seen his contemporary D-Will regress quite a bit recently. CP3 is incredible and should have a pretty good legacy, but c'mon, he's got to beat a formidable foe in a playoff series, doesn't he?! Very big moment for him as well as Blake and Doc, obviously.
good write up but I couldnt disagree more about the psurs this year, since the all star break the spurs have looked better than the team that won it all last year. Once this team got healthy they are beating everyone, plus leonard even looks better than last year. I wouldnt want to play a team with as much experience as the spurs in a close out game at home. Love spurs here
I agree the Spurs have looked tremendous since the break and I agree Kawai is better. But this is a situational elimination game where you lay 5.5 (unless you buy a hook) against maybe the best high powered front line coupled with the best point guard in the league, all with last year's disappointment/Sterling disruption affecting the psyche/motivation of the Clippers this year.
We need not have the Clips win the series for this bet....only cover 5.5 in a game 6. Spurs have to blow them out. Clips have far too much taken in my opinion to have that happen, unless as BB is betting on, a 'pull away occurs'. Let's narrow our focus to just this game and this spot and is see the Spurs having a tough time getting over this number. They have to worry about winning the game, period, and that is a tall task.
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Quote Originally Posted by joe67:
good write up but I couldnt disagree more about the psurs this year, since the all star break the spurs have looked better than the team that won it all last year. Once this team got healthy they are beating everyone, plus leonard even looks better than last year. I wouldnt want to play a team with as much experience as the spurs in a close out game at home. Love spurs here
I agree the Spurs have looked tremendous since the break and I agree Kawai is better. But this is a situational elimination game where you lay 5.5 (unless you buy a hook) against maybe the best high powered front line coupled with the best point guard in the league, all with last year's disappointment/Sterling disruption affecting the psyche/motivation of the Clippers this year.
We need not have the Clips win the series for this bet....only cover 5.5 in a game 6. Spurs have to blow them out. Clips have far too much taken in my opinion to have that happen, unless as BB is betting on, a 'pull away occurs'. Let's narrow our focus to just this game and this spot and is see the Spurs having a tough time getting over this number. They have to worry about winning the game, period, and that is a tall task.
Thanks Scal. Unfortunately I think you're right. Tough break. Just amazing how some franchises cannot escape their history of losing (I'm a lifer Vikings fan..). But maybe bad luck in Game 5 turns to some good luck tonight and we get that Game 7. What a sporting night it would be this Saturday if that happens!
Is this pretty close to a career-defining series for Chris Paul? The dude turns 30 in 6 days. We've seen his contemporary D-Will regress quite a bit recently. CP3 is incredible and should have a pretty good legacy, but c'mon, he's got to beat a formidable foe in a playoff series, doesn't he?! Very big moment for him as well as Blake and Doc, obviously.
Good point about CP3 (and d will ...and his regression...both in the same draft as you know).
You have a shot at a game 7 and then you can make guaranteed money. I'm only interested in the line here as I could never trust the clips for the series at my point. They have to win it to make me believe. And all you need is a shot...and its a good shot! Blake Cp3 doc DeAndre redeeming himself, Reddik or Jamal can go off. It's more than a punchers chance here! Look at the Bucks in game 5! 8.5 pt dogs take out the Bulls on the road.
I actually am worried about game 7 being Saturday because I have to watch the fight over this game if it happens! We won't see another boxing match this bug for another 7/8 years at least. Can't pass that up.
Vikes- I hope you had that outrageous backdoor cover by the vikes against the jets in OT this year, which would have made me shoot myself if I bet the jets after suffering through the denver jets int game.
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Quote Originally Posted by Liturgy_of_Fade:
Thanks Scal. Unfortunately I think you're right. Tough break. Just amazing how some franchises cannot escape their history of losing (I'm a lifer Vikings fan..). But maybe bad luck in Game 5 turns to some good luck tonight and we get that Game 7. What a sporting night it would be this Saturday if that happens!
Is this pretty close to a career-defining series for Chris Paul? The dude turns 30 in 6 days. We've seen his contemporary D-Will regress quite a bit recently. CP3 is incredible and should have a pretty good legacy, but c'mon, he's got to beat a formidable foe in a playoff series, doesn't he?! Very big moment for him as well as Blake and Doc, obviously.
Good point about CP3 (and d will ...and his regression...both in the same draft as you know).
You have a shot at a game 7 and then you can make guaranteed money. I'm only interested in the line here as I could never trust the clips for the series at my point. They have to win it to make me believe. And all you need is a shot...and its a good shot! Blake Cp3 doc DeAndre redeeming himself, Reddik or Jamal can go off. It's more than a punchers chance here! Look at the Bucks in game 5! 8.5 pt dogs take out the Bulls on the road.
I actually am worried about game 7 being Saturday because I have to watch the fight over this game if it happens! We won't see another boxing match this bug for another 7/8 years at least. Can't pass that up.
Vikes- I hope you had that outrageous backdoor cover by the vikes against the jets in OT this year, which would have made me shoot myself if I bet the jets after suffering through the denver jets int game.
). But maybe bad luck in Game 5 turns to some good luck tonight and we get that Game 7. What a sporting night it would be this Saturday if that happens!
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