Posted:
#1
12/'19 Edition
Big Card but unfortunately my stat model thinks the odds-makers did a good job in setting the pt-spreads for tonight's gms. The only sleight edge it sees right now is the Pistons because the Raptors line has moved from 1 to 3 overnight. The Raptors have been playing good ball but this is still 3 gms in 4 nights for them & you still are usually unwise to lay pts with a bad team. Especially if their defense is suspect. I usually look for at least a 58% edge before I wager on a gm, but since the we have been so HOT & the stat model gives the Pistons a 56% chance of covering the 3, I'm going to make a small play. I will just reduce the Units size because I want to stay within my parameters.
Pistons + 3 2 Units
Best Of Luck Too All!!
Big Card but unfortunately my stat model thinks the odds-makers did a good job in setting the pt-spreads for tonight's gms. The only sleight edge it sees right now is the Pistons because the Raptors line has moved from 1 to 3 overnight. The Raptors have been playing good ball but this is still 3 gms in 4 nights for them & you still are usually unwise to lay pts with a bad team. Especially if their defense is suspect. I usually look for at least a 58% edge before I wager on a gm, but since the we have been so HOT & the stat model gives the Pistons a 56% chance of covering the 3, I'm going to make a small play. I will just reduce the Units size because I want to stay within my parameters.
Pistons + 3 2 Units
Best Of Luck Too All!!
0
Luckily it was only a 2 unit play. The game was laying 4 with a minute to go so at least we were in the gm till the very end. The Raptors made practically all all their foul shots in the last 30 seconds of the gm ,as the Pistons were forced to keep fouling.. Hopefully we'll find something better tomorrow!
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