R3 🏀 🗽 👽 🌩️

302-245 (+41.06U)

Post the rest of conference finals here.  WNBA has been off to a really good start need to  close out NBA stronger. 

Spurs -1.5 1.5X pending    
Spurs 1Q -1

NY v Cavs o216.5 gm4

@MrFreedo

Spurs -1.5 
Spurs 1Q -1 

@MrFreedo

 great job Freedo!!

Regarding tonight's game, it had always been my thinking that it was favorable to take teams that were down 0-3. Now I'm thinking that it may depend on how well matched the teams are. To wit, when a team up 3-0 has been playing a team that they are supposed to stsamroll, they are more likely to be thinking psychologically  that their work is done and may not bring the intensity. And the overmatched team that is down 0-3 may be motivated to try to cash in on their last opportunity to beat a team they're not supposed to beat.

Conversely, when the two teams are more closely matched, the team up 3-0 may be more focused on closing out what they perceive as the greater threat (as opposed to the team they're supposed to steamroll). Also the team that's down 0-3 and was supposed to be competitive but largely wasn't may be defeated mentslly and feel they have little to gain  by achieving this one win which in all likelihood will be nothing more than a moral victory.

What do you think?

Good luck ?? 

@RayRayK

No really. We saw it this season with the overmatched Lakers (easy cover), the reasonably matched Sixers (blowout loss): I think we see it again tonight with the reasonably matched Cavs. I was wondering if there was any historical backing for this.

Teams down 0-3 have gone 18-46 straight up (-6.1) as home dogs before the finals round, 29-33 ATS (-0.1)

query text....playoffs=1 and series game=4 and series wins=0 and HD and round<4        (gimmethedog)

whowins.com also has playoff historical data.

@Stew Baker

Data I looked at after R1 as there’s soft competition early on. Each  team is down 0-3. 

Home teams in general: 8-20 SU/13-12-3 ATS

Home dogs: 5-15 SU/11-7-2 ATS

Home teams after losing last game by 10+ points: 2-15 SU/6-10-1 ATS

When I looked at after Round 2 smaller sample size:

Home teams 4-7 SU/7-4 ATS

Type this from my phone at my neighbors house let me get back to my computer here with some thoughts…

@Indigo999

Thanks

I just saw this I did use after round 1

@Indigo999

@MrFreedo

@Stew Baker

At this line were asking them to win SU so I have lots of data on NY. As a die hard Cavs fan the quotes out of this team they look defeated. The best bet in the playoffs this year has been playing teams in the 1Q at home after a loss. Last game the Cavs gave up almost 40 points in the 1Q in a must win game! I think stick a fork in em Cancun. They haven't had 2 days off in almost a month. 

Only case I got for Cavs is NY is fat and sassy off a ten game win streak and sometimes when every box is checked that looks good the opposite happens. 

Let me know if you want me to look anything else up. bol

Knicks -2 -109 (to win half a unit) Superbook

convinced myself after typing out all that data

NY v Cavs o216.5 

Knicks -2 

we back

Maybe we'll switch to the sharp side next game.

Spurs vs OKC o217 (Circa)

gotta take a nibble with the ref assignment, I think we see 50+ free throws 

@MrFreedo

@Onedummy

gl

Good guess with your free throws sir 

Spurs vs OKC o217 

5-0 run undefeated thread

@MrFreedo

 Great Call 

@MrFreedo