Playoff trends/tips

Some tips I use when capping games..spread will hardly comes into play. Just pick the team to win you will be surprised. Either fave covers the spread or dog wins SU.  Taking ML on faves or live betting is a waste IMOH. I think couple years ago 39 of 1st 40 games spread did not come into play for Dogs. The dog won SU or fave covered. 

Also don’t be surprised if unders dominate the playoff’s. Especially later games in the 1st round and 2nd round on. You will see teams play defense for the full game unlike regular season. You will see totals start at 225 for the 1st game and by the 3rd or 4th game the total will be 215.

Close out elimination games generally go under. This is well documented.  

Home court is huge in the playoffs. Rotations will be cut from 10 players to 7-8 as the teams advance. Stars take over and win games in the playoffs. 

feel free to contribute any other trends etc.. 

Exactly what I think, and don’t be afraid with the huge line when it’s a must win situation

@yorosan

 This wouldn’t qualify as must win situation. The team that loses, gets another game. 

@SKSports

 I don’t think he’s just talking about the play in games

Correct..Play in games are not really considered playoffs as its not really a series.

yep,concur on all of this..no matter how fancy and frilly the game becomes during the normal season it still always seems to revert to unders come playoff time...even for these play-in games it looks like totals are set a bit too high.above 225??any kind of blowout and thats probably not gonna come close to hitting.

Tip: stay away from Scott Foster officiated playoff games unless you know which way he is leaning. I think one year his playoff record was something like 10-1 for either the road team or home team. 

Tip: don’t bet on Harden led teams if Foster is officiating:

“Since 2017, the Rockets haven't won a single game refereed by Foster. 

Things that make you go HmmMmm?#NBA
Rockets 0-7 this season in games officiated by Scott Foster
0-9 in games since 2017 officiated by Foster
0-3 in home 2018 playoff games officiated by Foster (7-0 in the rest)

Last 2 games #Harden fouled out, Scott Foster was lead officiaL”

@begginerboy

Aint there a Scott Foster CP3 trend.... Also is Scott Foster the NBA's so called "Fixer". When the league needs a team to win in the playoffs for ratings or to extend the series they send him

Yes! After last year’s game 6 loss against the Bucks, Paul is now, get this, 2-16 in playoff games officiated by Foster!!!

Foster is the NBA’s version of a hitman! 

@begginerboy

 Playoffs is where you see a star player get "2 quick fouls" in like the 1st 5 minutes 

under do damn kill cheat

Definitely. How many times have we seen it. I can even remember some. Warriors at Clippers years ago. Griffin gets two quick fouls, Warriors build a nice lead and take game one. Series then goes 7. The year LBJ won his first title, KD spent more time on the bench than the floor! The league really wanted Bron to get his first ring. There are many more I’ve blocked out.

I counted last year ..I think it was 52/53 nba championship games were decided by 4 points or more. So like you mentioned, spread rarely comes into play. There’s an arbitrage opportunity if one feels convicted from the data sample (last 52 out 53)where you can bet the - # for the favorite and the + ML for the dog. Either way, you win $$$. As long as the trend stays strong.. it’s at 99% right now (52/53). 

playoffs aint even officially begun yet and favourites are 3-1 ATS and unders 4-0...

Obviously tells you that they do not play defense in the regular season...All 4 games had major scoring droughts by all teams...

haha,yep..and water is wet and the sky is blue...any of us that have watched more than 15 minutes of regular season nba can see that the effort can fluctuate wildly from quarter to quarter and game to game,mostly from mediocre to poor and not often anything above...imagine a fantasy world where we knew in all 82 games that players were capable of going all out 100% at both ends as much as reasonably possible...would make trying to win money a damn sight easier.

NBA totals have steadily gone up over the last few decades.    Back in the 80s and 90s, it was pretty rare to see a totals line over 210, and Vegas put out plenty of totals lines in the 170-180 range.  Some of this is because the players don't put forth the effort on the defensive side of the ball as much as they used to.  But a lot of it has to do with the basic rules of basketball being ignored.  Guys can take 3-4 steps and aren't called for traveling.  Palming the ball and illegal screens happen on nearly every possession. It's basically a playground league now. Then you have analytics that dictate that a 3pt attempt on a wide open fast break is more optimal than a virtually guaranteed 2pt layup/dunk.  

I do fine betting on the NBA playoffs, but I'm not a fan and I don't watch much of it.

@davemsh

 Good stuff there Dave.  Thank you.