Posted:
#1
Lakers/Suns under 186.5
Everybody knows those games you see and within seconds you want to bet the farm.... Well this is mine and I haven't seen one like this in a month or so maybe longer. Don't rip me for being confident, I am actually looking for reasons not to jump on it. Here is why I like my gut reaction....
Scoring Offense
LA: 92.5 PH: 93.6 = 186.1
LA(home):94.4 PH(road): 92.4= 186.8
LAST 3 gms for each total= 184
Scoring Defense
LA: 90.4 PH: 96.9= 187.3
LA(home):87.4 PH(road):97.4 =182.1
LAST 3 gms for each total: 191.3
At first you may be laughing at me... but here is my take. There is always more value in a good defense vs good offense any day of the week. Thus, lakers home defense holds greatest value to me. The last 3 game points allowed may seem high but I think there is more value in it... bc Suns last 3 are GST, DEN, ATL.... all loses all fast pace teams (not as much ATL), so this tells me the suns cant run and gun like the old. They have scored 100 twice since 1/15. You may be worried about lack of suns D, but I really think the lakers are that bad at scoring it doesnt matter.
Key angles:
- this season suns 70% under all games, 76.5% under on the road, 100% under in divisions games, 77.8% under 1 day rest
- the Lakers have been 60.7% under all games, 65% at home under, 75 % under after a win, 62.5% under in conference
- Gasol openly admitted 1 hour ago not sure about his future concerning a trade, in LA. This unrest throws teams in a funk
- Lakers favored by 8 and they havent score over 94 in a victory since Jan
- Lets face it LA is old, PH is old... now way around that. Now you know that old guy at the YMCA who balls? You know, that one old guy who can run with the young guns? Well, he can do that because he is smart and outplay them while young guys play on energy and athleticism. Just because that old timer can run the young players doesn't mean he wants to and will slow it down every chance he gets. Well I see this game going like a one on one of the old guys, like two old men playing golf.... easy, straight, and down the middle
- Also, these teams are pretty veteran, its not the first time they have seen each others game... some even the last 15 years or so. Thus, this will be a chess match
- Everybody knows the Lakers goal is to keep the other team from scoring X amount so they can keep the game a 6 pt game for kobe to take over last half of 4th Q, mindset on stopping PH not Scoring
- Vegas thinking: BIG public fav in LA, notoriously destroyer of Overs last few seasons.... I think they were set a little high for the trap
More Stats:
Possesions a game: LA(93.1)PH(94.8) 20th and 25th in league
Extra Scoring chances a game: LA ranked 29th PH 26th
PH 29th ranked in FT made a game, lakers 29th ranked in league 3pt%, PH attempts alot of 3s while LA is 6th in league in defending it
the reason I see LA dictating thus moving more towards their average is they are top 5 in home power ranking, number one in home advantage LAKERS ARE #1 MOST CONSISTENT TEAM AND PHOENIX IS THE LEAST CONSISTENT ranked last in the entire nba
MORE things I like to consider may hold little value with others...
Teamrankings predictors: TR model picked under 1 star, decesion tree picked over 53.8% confidence, similar game model said under 57.5% confidence
stats on models....
all under picks on year: 66% correct
Similar game model: 56% picking conf. games with that confidence above, 57% when picking under
D. Tree model: only hitting 43.7% when picking over
TR model (combo of all) 57.6% picking total at that line 186.5
favorite: %of win picks when model is picking totals in...
Eastern conf: 60.6%
Pacific Division: 80% on year for totals
This is everything I can think that gave it value to me... I could write for another hour and throw numbers to support me, but my gut matches up with my numbers.... When I saw this I DBL checked to make sure D. Howard was traded or something... style, averages, age, inflated public, division game am I missing anything fellows? tell me why I shouldn't make this a big play?
ALSO! (keep finding value as a write) Scehdule quirk, 1st of b2b ph/LA.... So savvy vets treat like a last two games of a series.. dont wanna lose first and make it up in game 7 or 5.... youd much rather play the team the next night after beating them especially in divisions, so everybody plays like a playoff game
0
under!!!
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