NY @ Cle. Game 3

Cavs -132* 1.1 u (risk)

When I look at this game, I have to ask, is this like the generic game 3 with the home team down 0-2, where the home team steps up, or is it like the last Knick series, where Philly, down 0-2, came home for game 3 and was decimated (not to take anything away from the Knicks, but the Sixers weren't mentally ready for that game, nor for game 4 - I don't know what their problem was). I'm siding here with the former scenario. In the spots this postseason where their backs were actually against the wall, the Cavs manifested the character needed to step up and perform. The Knicks are not infallible, they can be beat by a lesser team on a given day.

The one thing that would cause me to change my mind in this game would be upward line movement, if I interpreted it as being driven by sentiment. An example of this would be aforementioned NY @ Phi. game 3. Once Embiid was upgraded from questionable to playing, the line got a boost, which was natural and not unexpected, but at that point, the general consensus was that Philly had the game in the bag, and the line continued to escalate (and we know what the result was). You could make the argument as well that the sentiment last night (although any line movement could be attributed to the late injury update) was signalling that the Spurs may not be good, as there was WAAAAYY too much love for that side. If the line on tonight's game were to go to 3 1/2, and it appeared the movement was sentiment driven, that would signal that the Knicks weren't getting any respect, and I would consider switching sides or at least buy out of my bet.

* Regarding my choice of ML for this bet (as opposed to the spread), I basically agree with Mr. Freedo when he says that if you play ML on a favorite in the playoffs, you're wasting your money. In this case, however, (consider that there is a price for everything), I opted for the ML , because at -132, I was getting a big discount for a 2 1/2 pt. game. Bookmaker, which is very sharp, prices the move from 2 1/2 to pick in the NBA at 32 cents, based on their point buy and sell prices (Pinnacle also very sharp, prices this move at 31 cents). So laying -132 ML when the spread was 2 1/2 -110, I was paying a premium of only 22 cents for the ML, a 9 or 10 cent discount. My rule of thumb, when the spread is between +2 1/2 and -2 1/2 and needing to decide between the spread and ML, is to basically go with whatever is your personal preference, but if the alternate option is clearly mathematically better, you go with that instead. 

What are you talking about? So if there is a reverse line movement, and the line moves in your favor after betting, it sends a signal to the universe that the other team isn't getting respect and therefore will win, despite your odds advantage improving? This is schizo babble that is the inverse of reality. 

@BarrelledIn

When a team is disrespected in the public's perception it puts them on notice and they'll be more motivated. The Knicks deserve more respect than to be 3 1/2 pt dogs to Cle., just like they deserved more respect than to be 4 1/2 pt dogs in Philly in Gm. 3. 

FYI: The line moving in one's favor, by itself, does not alter one's odds advantage, assuming that by "odds advantage" you're talking about the odds of a particular outcome occurring, 

So there’s like a live odds tracker teams are aware of in their locker room and they become uber motivated if they become “too much” of an underdog for a single game in the playoffs? Horseshi it. You don’t have an advantage on -2 on a closing line of -3, in fact it’s now a disadvantage according to you? Horeshi t

@BarrelledIn

It's not as finite as a team having a live odds ticker in the locker room Teams are very aware of the public perception of them, however, and this is one component of line moves. Line moves in one's favor are more often in one's favor than not, however, whether or not the move is in your favor depends on the cause of the move. That's about as much as I can say. Let the forum weigh in on this debate!

Forget about the line movement. It all comes down to M. Bridges. Will he continue to pay dividend for the trade capital N.Y. gave up or he goes back 2his old useless self hahaha 

Sticking to my guns. 

Adding: Knicks + 3 1/2 1.0u (risk)

Hoping for a middle!

 As long as M. Bridges performance  continue 2pay dividend. Knicks winning streak will continue. He has always been the X-factor since the Knicks acquired him