Posted:
#226
2h
okc -5
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nba playoffs
Posted:
#229
Quote Originally Posted by GeneCam27:
usually i determine plays on the next game based on how i saw the refs the game prior. from what i saw in game 4 as i stated they really took the gas out of the Nets by giving early fouls on Pierce & D-Will - ultimately putting them into foul troubles the whole game & it hurt the Nets. I think the make up calls will come for the team that did not get the calls the game prior. So I'm leaning Nets right now for game 5 to further extend the series.
i haven't been keeping a close watch but hasn't Wade been shooting a very good % in this playoffs/series? Wade does his best work in the playoffs - he has been in every playoffs since his rookie season & has only missed the playoffs once throughout his whole career. I think if Miami indeed does not win the NBA finals it will be for other reasons.
I think Nets never had a chance to begin with. There's no way the NBA would want the face of the league to be beaten by another team and not reach the finals. THe league will do all they can to not let that happen - they've been doing so since the Big 3 era. Boston especially when they had Pierce, KG & Allen were recipients of those whistles. Nothing changed in this series for those guys & their new team vs Miami Big 3. Plus Lopez not being in this series really gives BK a big disadvantage even if the league were 100% legit.
Sharp capping.... I'm not sure what to expect out of the Nets in Game 5.... sure they'll mentally come to play but will they physically come. I really thought they would take this one too and make it 2-2. Aside from the atomic bomb that is Lebron these teams are even. The nets are arguably even better as a collective unit IMO.
usually i determine plays on the next game based on how i saw the refs the game prior. from what i saw in game 4 as i stated they really took the gas out of the Nets by giving early fouls on Pierce & D-Will - ultimately putting them into foul troubles the whole game & it hurt the Nets. I think the make up calls will come for the team that did not get the calls the game prior. So I'm leaning Nets right now for game 5 to further extend the series.
Quote Originally Posted by GeneCam27:
i've been saying all year that D wade hasn't looked good at all. His age and bad knees are starting to show. For these reasons i don't think they'll have enough to beat OKC or the Spurs this. And we know the Pacers are going to get up and bring 110% WWF defense at Miami which will where them out.
i've been saying all year that D wade hasn't looked good at all. His age and bad knees are starting to show. For these reasons i don't think they'll have enough to beat OKC or the Spurs this. And we know the Pacers are going to get up and bring 110% WWF defense at Miami which will where them out.
i haven't been keeping a close watch but hasn't Wade been shooting a very good % in this playoffs/series? Wade does his best work in the playoffs - he has been in every playoffs since his rookie season & has only missed the playoffs once throughout his whole career. I think if Miami indeed does not win the NBA finals it will be for other reasons.
Quote Originally Posted by GeneCam27:
I'm not burying Brooklyn yet but this was such a pivotal game 4. If Brooklyn would habve won this game 4 after Lebron tried his hardest on a 50 point night (49) and lost Miami would be very vulnerable to losing this series. 3-1 hole on the road with no home court is pretty over in the NBA.... if this were hockey or baseball it would be a little easier...
I'm not burying Brooklyn yet but this was such a pivotal game 4. If Brooklyn would habve won this game 4 after Lebron tried his hardest on a 50 point night (49) and lost Miami would be very vulnerable to losing this series. 3-1 hole on the road with no home court is pretty over in the NBA.... if this were hockey or baseball it would be a little easier...
I think Nets never had a chance to begin with. There's no way the NBA would want the face of the league to be beaten by another team and not reach the finals. THe league will do all they can to not let that happen - they've been doing so since the Big 3 era. Boston especially when they had Pierce, KG & Allen were recipients of those whistles. Nothing changed in this series for those guys & their new team vs Miami Big 3. Plus Lopez not being in this series really gives BK a big disadvantage even if the league were 100% legit.
Quote Originally Posted by GeneCam27:
agree with you on the refs....
agree with you on the refs....
it still boggles my mind how people continue to think that the league is 100% legit. it's beyond ignorance or naivety.
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Posted:
#234
" i wouldn't be surprised they give game 6 to Clips to make up the robbery and then the league has their game 7 ratings bonanza."
quote from me, from my thread. Leaning Clippers game 6. plus imagine the anger from the Clips squad after being robbed. they will come out firing in this next game. Imagine the ratings for a game 7!!!!! it would be bonkers.
quote from me, from my thread. Leaning Clippers game 6. plus imagine the anger from the Clips squad after being robbed. they will come out firing in this next game. Imagine the ratings for a game 7!!!!! it would be bonkers.
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Posted:
#236
Quote Originally Posted by Caper03:
strategy is very similar to a strategy that me and a couple buddies use to use. About 6-7 years ago, you could find all the offshore line and exchanges of multiple books on SBR (haven't been there in years.) Whenever the line moved .3 or greater from the open in baseball (example: -100 to -130 or to - 140 or vice versa +180 to +150) we would take that line, due to inefficiencies of the opening line. We would also have multiple books to take advantage of the slower books that have not yet adjusted (arbitrage). Now a days lines and books are a lot sharper/faster. If I remember correctly- this strategy worked well for a year and a half. Then got crushed the following year.
strategy is very similar to a strategy that me and a couple buddies use to use. About 6-7 years ago, you could find all the offshore line and exchanges of multiple books on SBR (haven't been there in years.) Whenever the line moved .3 or greater from the open in baseball (example: -100 to -130 or to - 140 or vice versa +180 to +150) we would take that line, due to inefficiencies of the opening line. We would also have multiple books to take advantage of the slower books that have not yet adjusted (arbitrage). Now a days lines and books are a lot sharper/faster. If I remember correctly- this strategy worked well for a year and a half. Then got crushed the following year.
yeah, can see that happening, but just chasing the steam ie (the five figure orders) telling me someone, or multiple someones.....know something...and given the lay side is + ev to begin with, albeit slightly
0
Posted:
#237
Quote Originally Posted by Rip100:
yeah, can see that happening, but just chasing the steam ie (the five figure orders) telling me someone, or multiple someones.....know something...and given the lay side is + ev to begin with, albeit slightly
you guys are way too advanced for me. i wish i really had the time to really delve in deeper w/ this sports betting thing like i used to when i first started learning the ropes on here. but unfortunately w/ 2 small kids time & energy has really been a factor. But really glad people like yourselves introduce me to things like this in hope for me to get a grasp of later on when i do have the time.
I remember when i had no kids and had alot more time i would read profusely when researching games. i would sometimes ready up to 10 articles per play/per game just to get any sort of gist on how a team is feeling, how they will approach the next game, the mental state of particular players, mental state of a team etc. etc. just to gain any sort of edge that can assist in determining a play. Then after that i would crunch the numbers. Ultimately i'd spend several hours researching just one game/play. I would come out with score predictions and deficits after doing the math. in the first few seasons being on covers i would go on numerous runs per season....sometimes big runs like 22-1 etc. and score predictions would almost be spot on. I felt like god........
.........then the kids came, sleep deprivation kicked in, insomnia, fatigue etc. etc. my picks suffered. no longer crunched numbers, no longer read even one article at times and pretty much just whent on gut. Kids are a little older now so i have more time than i used to hence the nice runs i've been having last season and today.
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Posted:
#238
Quote Originally Posted by GeneCam27:
Agreed......
Agreed......
Wonder how game 6 OKC CLipps will effect the lines of up coming games at all?
Surely they'll know everyone will be on the Clipps for Game 6.
the line atm on covers is lac -4.5. the same line that opened in game 3 when OKC won su. game 4 heat/bk there was heavy public play on Miami. everybody on covers were all over Miami also. public i guess thinking they bounce back after losing game 3 and they won anyway. So i'm not afraid of taking the public team here if i do decide to play the Clips. This is going to be one p***ssed off squad. Doc came out publicly and stated his opinion on the refs and the outcome and i quote said they got 'ROBBED'. Surely the league will compensate this team even a little bit for them to get the advantage at home like they gave OKC on their home floor last night.
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Posted:
#239
Pacers are quite baffling......I sweat It's hibbert......this guy is really suss.
- in their opening series home game he goes 0-0 - Indy lose.
- in their game 5 loss he goes 4-2 - Indy lose
but in their 3 wins Hibbert goes:
game 2: 28-9
game 3: 14-5
game 4: 17-9
His play determines Pacers outcome. He switches on and off & to make things even more bizarre his an All-Star. Dude is on the take
lol i dunno but he is mad suspect. If he chooses to show up for game 6 Wash are done, If not we'll be off for game 7. Wonder what his decision will be.
- in their opening series home game he goes 0-0 - Indy lose.
- in their game 5 loss he goes 4-2 - Indy lose
but in their 3 wins Hibbert goes:
game 2: 28-9
game 3: 14-5
game 4: 17-9
His play determines Pacers outcome. He switches on and off & to make things even more bizarre his an All-Star. Dude is on the take
lol i dunno but he is mad suspect. If he chooses to show up for game 6 Wash are done, If not we'll be off for game 7. Wonder what his decision will be.
0
Posted:
#243
Bomber, there is not right or wrong way to cap, some use sdql, others use clv, +ev etc., even the tout sheets have value....just as much about money management as picking winners....been doing this for over 40 years.....with all the variance in these games...gonna have winning and losing streaks no matter what methods you use...old time bookie once told me.....,kid, pay your bills when you win.....sound advice.......the computer age has certainly helped though
has certainly helped though
0
Posted:
#244
Quote Originally Posted by Rip100:
Bomber, there is not right or wrong way to cap, some use sdql, others use clv, +ev etc., even the tout sheets have value....just as much about money management as picking winners....been doing this for over 40 years.....with all the variance in these games...gonna have winning and losing streaks no matter what methods you use...old time bookie once told me.....,kid, pay your bills when you win.....sound advice.......the computer age has certainly helped though
Bomber, there is not right or wrong way to cap, some use sdql, others use clv, +ev etc., even the tout sheets have value....just as much about money management as picking winners....been doing this for over 40 years.....with all the variance in these games...gonna have winning and losing streaks no matter what methods you use...old time bookie once told me.....,kid, pay your bills when you win.....sound advice.......the computer age
has certainly helped though Great quote, but never heard of clv? 40 years is a very long time. Hope those 40 years have been wildly successful.
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