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All Forums | NBA Betting

NBA BREAKDOWN Thur 03/24 (2 games)

bodio
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bodio
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Posted: Mar. 24, 2011 - 2:20 AM ET #1

Timberwolves @ Mavericks OFF

Kevin Love is out for this game.  Actually he’s going to miss the next couple of games with a groin injury.  Obviously this is a big deal for the Wolves, who will have trouble containing this Dallas front-court.  Both teams are rested, having 3 days off prior to playing this one tonight.  Dallas is still playing for the #2 seed and could be 1 game back of LA with a win here.  Minnesota comes into this one with 4 losses in a row going 1-3 ATS in those games. This team is playing virtually no D, and without Love to control the ‘boards’ it could be a very long for the visitors.  Keep in mind that Dallas is only 13-18 ATS when playing a team with a losing record this year.  Will they cover a high spread, which I expect to be in the -14.5 / -15.5 range?  This is the last home game for them prior to a 6-game roadie, so it will be interesting if they put on a show for the fans.  Dallas has won the 2 meetings so far this year, going 1-1 ATS in the process.  They were road favs of -6.5 and -10 point favorites at home.  The line today will most definitely be over-inflated so it’s probably best to PASS in this situation, since I can’t find a way to back the Wolves tonight.  The O/U’s have been:  205 (U) (game in Dallas); 210.5 (O).  The opening total could be an indicating of where the bookmakers expect this one to go.  Minnesota isn’t playing any D right now, but the question is, will they be able to score enough points in this one against a rested and deep Dallas squad?  Leans:  PASS on the side and wait-and-see on the total.

 

Hornets @ Jazz +2 O/U: 191

Utah is 4 games out of the playoffs now, and for intents and purposes, their season is over.  Now this team is traveling back home where the Hornets are waiting for them.  Yes, Utah is one traveling to play this one, even though they are the home-team.  The Hornets had 4 days off, while Utah is playing their 4th game in 5 nights.  The schedule is tough enough, but knowing that you pretty much have no shot at the playoffs now, might be even tougher.  Kirilenko got banged up yesterday (no surprise – that dude is made out of glass) and Devin Harris isn’t expected back for this one.  Utah has now lost 3 in a row, and it’s not going to be easy going up against a defensive team like New Orleans.  The 2 teams split the previous 2 meetings this year, with each blowing each other out at home.  Utah is 15-4 SU at home in this series and 4-1 over the last couple of years.  The O/U’s:  193 (U) and 192.5 (U).  This one seems a little low to me as Utah isn’t playing any D, and Hornets aren’t as stout right now as they were earlier this season.  Leans:  Hornets and OVER.

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Timberwolves @ Mavericks OFF

Kevin Love is out for this game.  Actually he’s going to miss the next couple of games with a groin injury.  Obviously this is a big deal for the Wolves, who will have trouble containing this Dallas front-court.  Both teams are rested, having 3 days off prior to playing this one tonight.  Dallas is still playing for the #2 seed and could be 1 game back of LA with a win here.  Minnesota comes into this one with 4 losses in a row going 1-3 ATS in those games. This team is playing virtually no D, and without Love to control the ‘boards’ it could be a very long for the visitors.  Keep in mind that Dallas is only 13-18 ATS when playing a team with a losing record this year.  Will they cover a high spread, which I expect to be in the -14.5 / -15.5 range?  This is the last home game for them prior to a 6-game roadie, so it will be interesting if they put on a show for the fans.  Dallas has won the 2 meetings so far this year, going 1-1 ATS in the process.  They were road favs of -6.5 and -10 point favorites at home.  The line today will most definitely be over-inflated so it’s probably best to PASS in this situation, since I can’t find a way to back the Wolves tonight.  The O/U’s have been:  205 (U) (game in Dallas); 210.5 (O).  The opening total could be an indicating of where the bookmakers expect this one to go.  Minnesota isn’t playing any D right now, but the question is, will they be able to score enough points in this one against a rested and deep Dallas squad?  Leans:  PASS on the side and wait-and-see on the total.

 

Hornets @ Jazz +2 O/U: 191

Utah is 4 games out of the playoffs now, and for intents and purposes, their season is over.  Now this team is traveling back home where the Hornets are waiting for them.  Yes, Utah is one traveling to play this one, even though they are the home-team.  The Hornets had 4 days off, while Utah is playing their 4th game in 5 nights.  The schedule is tough enough, but knowing that you pretty much have no shot at the playoffs now, might be even tougher.  Kirilenko got banged up yesterday (no surprise – that dude is made out of glass) and Devin Harris isn’t expected back for this one.  Utah has now lost 3 in a row, and it’s not going to be easy going up against a defensive team like New Orleans.  The 2 teams split the previous 2 meetings this year, with each blowing each other out at home.  Utah is 15-4 SU at home in this series and 4-1 over the last couple of years.  The O/U’s:  193 (U) and 192.5 (U).  This one seems a little low to me as Utah isn’t playing any D, and Hornets aren’t as stout right now as they were earlier this season.  Leans:  Hornets and OVER.

 
nbird33
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Posted: Mar. 24, 2011 - 2:33 AM ET #2

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el_duderino84
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Posted: Mar. 24, 2011 - 2:33 AM ET #3

Love the Mavs/Wolves analysis sir...def gonna take Mavs w/e the spread hits. 

I agree on Hornets covering...Chris Paul is gonna look to make a statement as he tied his lowest scoring performance last game w/ 4 points...I don't see Utah having an answer for him in the end. 

BOL sir!! 

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Love the Mavs/Wolves analysis sir...def gonna take Mavs w/e the spread hits. 

I agree on Hornets covering...Chris Paul is gonna look to make a statement as he tied his lowest scoring performance last game w/ 4 points...I don't see Utah having an answer for him in the end. 

BOL sir!! 

 
jdukes0004
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Posted: Mar. 24, 2011 - 2:46 AM ET #4

I love the hornets -1.5 it is my play of the week...possible my play of the month. I love the hornets in this spot
Money Management and discipline is the key to success in sports investing
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I love the hornets -1.5 it is my play of the week...possible my play of the month. I love the hornets in this spot
 
bperry23
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Posted: Mar. 24, 2011 - 3:02 AM ET #5

nice write ups. I see the mavs game at about -13 if Love were playing, IMO he makes a huge difference. I just hope I wake up and its at -13 or less because I do not like the NO game....so its a good thing we got the SWEET SIXTEEN today. (took your BYU, and UNDERS, but cant go against Florida they are good and in the best conference in the NCAA...SEC!)

Good Luck
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nice write ups. I see the mavs game at about -13 if Love were playing, IMO he makes a huge difference. I just hope I wake up and its at -13 or less because I do not like the NO game....so its a good thing we got the SWEET SIXTEEN today. (took your BYU, and UNDERS, but cant go against Florida they are good and in the best conference in the NCAA...SEC!)

Good Luck
 
bodio
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Posted: Mar. 24, 2011 - 3:06 AM ET #6

Quote Originally Posted by el_duderino84:

Love the Mavs/Wolves analysis sir...def gonna take Mavs w/e the spread hits. 

I agree on Hornets covering...Chris Paul is gonna look to make a statement as he tied his lowest scoring performance last game w/ 4 points...I don't see Utah having an answer for him in the end. 

BOL sir!! 

 

Agree 100%.  Paul won't have D-Will on him in this one who is much bigger and has usually given CP3 fits.  I expect a big game out of him in this one.

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Quote Originally Posted by el_duderino84:

Love the Mavs/Wolves analysis sir...def gonna take Mavs w/e the spread hits. 

I agree on Hornets covering...Chris Paul is gonna look to make a statement as he tied his lowest scoring performance last game w/ 4 points...I don't see Utah having an answer for him in the end. 

BOL sir!! 

 

Agree 100%.  Paul won't have D-Will on him in this one who is much bigger and has usually given CP3 fits.  I expect a big game out of him in this one.

 
bodio
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Posted: Mar. 24, 2011 - 3:06 AM ET #7

Quote Originally Posted by jdukes0004:

I love the hornets -1.5 it is my play of the week...possible my play of the month. I love the hornets in this spot

 

Absolutely.  Line is low enough to make it a play of the week or whatever you want to call it

GL!

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Quote Originally Posted by jdukes0004:

I love the hornets -1.5 it is my play of the week...possible my play of the month. I love the hornets in this spot

 

Absolutely.  Line is low enough to make it a play of the week or whatever you want to call it

GL!

 
bodio
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Posted: Mar. 24, 2011 - 3:08 AM ET #8

Quote Originally Posted by bperry23:

nice write ups. I see the mavs game at about -13 if Love were playing, IMO he makes a huge difference. I just hope I wake up and its at -13 or less because I do not like the NO game....so its a good thing we got the SWEET SIXTEEN today. (took your BYU, and UNDERS, but cant go against Florida they are good and in the best conference in the NCAA...SEC!)

Good Luck

Hey...if you can't go against Florida, why did you take BYU?  Or did you mean SDSU? 

I think the Mavs will be closer to -15.5 / -16  I'm not playing it cause I don't like the Mavs' ATS record against inferior teams, but I do think they can and should cover it tomorrow.

GL buddy

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Quote Originally Posted by bperry23:

nice write ups. I see the mavs game at about -13 if Love were playing, IMO he makes a huge difference. I just hope I wake up and its at -13 or less because I do not like the NO game....so its a good thing we got the SWEET SIXTEEN today. (took your BYU, and UNDERS, but cant go against Florida they are good and in the best conference in the NCAA...SEC!)

Good Luck

Hey...if you can't go against Florida, why did you take BYU?  Or did you mean SDSU? 

I think the Mavs will be closer to -15.5 / -16  I'm not playing it cause I don't like the Mavs' ATS record against inferior teams, but I do think they can and should cover it tomorrow.

GL buddy

 
bodio
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Posted: Mar. 24, 2011 - 3:08 AM ET #9

One play for today fellas.  Here's the selection and the detailed write-up:

 

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101014630

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One play for today fellas.  Here's the selection and the detailed write-up:

 

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101014630

 
KasperNV
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Posted: Mar. 24, 2011 - 3:27 AM ET #10

BOL Bodio
Second mouse gets the cheese.
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BOL Bodio
 
bperry23
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Posted: Mar. 24, 2011 - 10:48 AM ET #11

good catch, I did mean I'm on SDST (all over it, Kemba is over rated IMO) And I am skeptical about BYU but may play a small teaser with them cause they are getting some points. GL with NO (might put it in the tease)
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good catch, I did mean I'm on SDST (all over it, Kemba is over rated IMO) And I am skeptical about BYU but may play a small teaser with them cause they are getting some points. GL with NO (might put it in the tease)
 
 
bodio
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Posted: Mar. 24, 2011 - 3:15 PM ET #12

Quote Originally Posted by bperry23:

good catch, I did mean I'm on SDST (all over it, Kemba is over rated IMO) And I am skeptical about BYU but may play a small teaser with them cause they are getting some points. GL with NO (might put it in the tease)

Oh crap..I didn't even think about teasing NO. 

Good point.  thanks

Love SDSU tonight.  They're a better team and playing pretty much at home.  UConn is very young, and it could be difficult if Kemba is contained.  Shoudl be a good one

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Quote Originally Posted by bperry23:

good catch, I did mean I'm on SDST (all over it, Kemba is over rated IMO) And I am skeptical about BYU but may play a small teaser with them cause they are getting some points. GL with NO (might put it in the tease)

Oh crap..I didn't even think about teasing NO. 

Good point.  thanks

Love SDSU tonight.  They're a better team and playing pretty much at home.  UConn is very young, and it could be difficult if Kemba is contained.  Shoudl be a good one

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