just sayin... (6-0 last time I posted)

keep in mind: i attempted to post my picks consistently and regularly at the beginning of the season, but im not gonna lie, it really became hectic and time-consuming, especially because i would spend more time responding to trash talk (madskillz) than I would giving plays. That said, I would also try and post my "good" plays, while holding back on the other plays I bet on the side. As a result, my posted record was deceiving - I have honestly won over 14gs this year, and i started with a bankroll of around 2gs or so, yet my record doesn't reveal that. Anyone who doubts me, I dont blame you, but I also have no problem whatsoeverrrr proving otherwise with evidence of my big wins/big losses so far this year. Hell, ill give someone random my login info and password to validate what im saying, and then change the password immediately after if thats what it takes.

Anyways... 

i was initially planning to play atlanta big as of yesterday, "before" the celtics beat the knicks on a buzzer beater shot. I had the knicks +4/ML big. 

On a side note, on december 14th (12/14/2010) "thorpe" started a "knicks" thread addressing the difficulty of ny's next 13 games. at around 12:15 pm, wellll before any lines had come out, and I posted what I anticipated to be the lines in all of their games well in advance:

As i was saying...

i anticipated the celtics to lose last night in ny, tired and disappointed. I expected them to then come home to face their OLD rivals, Atlanta, who are struggling to set themselves apart as a top team in the east. Atlanta, in this situation as of yesterday, were hoping to come into Boston and revive the rivalry that has taken course the past few years. Basically, the way I interpreted the situation was such that Atlanta hasn't proven themselves yet this year, and what better time to prove oneself than on national TV against a team like the Celtics, the #1 team in the East, let alone the whole league. The Celtics, on the other hand, have started their season extremely well fearing absolutely no one, especially not the lonely hawks. Having said that, I thought that if Boston were to lose yesterday against the knicks, that the hawks would be able to take advantage of the situation and exploit the celtics' weak spirits. It would have been a huge opportunity for the hawks to make a point and send a message to the rest of the league. BUT, the celtics didn't lose. Instead, they were able to revive a rivalry of their own with the knicks. If anyone watched the game last night, the intensity was pretty high and emotions were flaring. Boston recognized that they would have a much tougher time beating a team like the knicks, than a team like the hawks. Anyways, the celtics were PUMPED after yesterday's win, not sad with weak spirits had they lost. Now, they are facing a hawks team without joe johnson OR jamal crawford. If the celtics had lost yesterday, then I would maybee "contemplate" taking the hawks without their two leading scorers (some may consider Smith), thinking that the game was that much more important for the hawks against the celtics off a b2b loss, dispirited. Instead, the celtics come into tonight with some fire. Did anyone see that lap by Pierce? Did anyone notice KG's hectic murmuring/shit-talking while the refs were reviewing Amare's shot at the end of the game? The Celtics have no interest in backing down tonight. On the contrary, I think they want to let the Hawks know that it's no longer a rivalry between them. The Celtics have found a new team to compete with besides the magic/heat. They now have to focus on how to beat the bulls/knicks first. I honestly think Atlanta would have had a chance tonight if the celtics lost last night simply because I thought they could potentially jump on the tired, unmotivated celtics. But unfortunately for them, they are about to face an aggressive-minded, pumped up team. 

Rondo claims he wants/can play tonight, but the team may have different plans in mind considering a few of his other nagging injuries. IF rondo plays, then I will bet the celtics ats big. If he doesnt, I will see how I feel before tip off.  EITHER WAY, I will bet Celtics 1qtr a large amount. 

Please note: I have only bet 4 1st qtr bets this year, all of which have won. 

I am also on the Under 187 tonight as well.

Blowout for Celtics = Under ... especially if the hawks are missing their two best scorers, AND the celtics just allowed 116 points last night as a top three defensive team in the league (i think theyre actually even #1 in defense this year, but I dont want to just say it since if im not positive) 

In terms of Denver vs. San Antonio:

I bet Orlando -1.5 big the other night, only to regret the bet immediately once the game started. I was praying that the magic would be up at half at some point so I could make a good hedge on my bet, but unfortunately/fortunately I was able to bet Den -3 for the game at half, risking a largeee amount of money, especially because it wasn't a hedged bet, hence the "unfortunate" aspect. Fortunately though, Denver covered soundly. 

I mention this to give anyone who's reading this far the understanding that I have bet on and against the nuggets with no problem. 

The line I generated came out as Denver -1. (vs. +2 or +1 now)

This situation is actually quite ironic because the Spurs, too, won last night off a buzzer beater! Ha what are the odds of that? However, if you think about it, if you can somehow think as an athlete (which I was not too long ago before I started smoking the "lalala"), you might be able to see these situations as I see it - and I may be completely off, it goes without saying and that's why its called gambling. The Spurs (21-3), with the best record in the league, have done quite the job of "proving themselves" thus far this year. At this point, I don't think "sending a message" (to anyone, whether the nuggets, or the rest of the league) is on the forefront of the Spurs' mind. They have played consistently well, and they are racking up the wins as a result, versus good teams and bad ones. At this point, for the Spurs, I think a "win" is a "win", whether it's at home against the grizzlies, suns (spurs' next two games), or on the road against the nuggets. Whereas the nuggets find themselves with a completely different mindset - I think they prefer to beat a team like the Spurs ten times more than a mediocre/shitty team. Tonight's game is important to the Nuggets, while I don't think it's as important to the soaring Spurs. I think the general public isn't looking at this game from this angle, but rather from a simple "matchup" perspective. In that regard, I think the Spurs would beat the Nuggets 7 out of 10 times if the game were equally as important (like during the playoffs per say). So, I understand why people like/love the spurs tonight, it makes sense - the spurs are a much better team than the nuggets, i agree completely. But with a record of 21-3, coming off a b2b, playing one of the hottest home teams in the league hungry for another big win, andd with their 3 next games at home against seemingly sub-par teams (with denver being one of them!!!) - I dont think the spurs will have the type of focus they'll need tonight to beat a hungry nuggets team. I think the Spurs will be ok with the idea of losing tonight, but knowing they will have a decent chance at redeeming themselves the following three games at home, especially considering the fact that one of them will be the team they're playing tonight. 

Also, I am taking the Under 211.5 as I think the Spurs' lack of cohesiveness will prevent them from putting up a lot of points. I don't think they will reach 100 pts, let alone maybe even 90pts total, which would mean that the nuggets would have to win by 20-30 or so for the over to cover - and i dont think the nuggets are that hungry. 

Wow, that's the biggest write up I have every written, but well worth is as I now feel that much more comfortable with my picks. 

 luck to all, and comments are welcome. 

I respect AJspicks and jlb442 ... so if either of you two sweethearts somehow reach my post, I would like to hear why you picked Spurs tn... 

haha thank you for the reply "babe" (im stopping after this) ... just to let you know though -- i asked you because i do like to see what you pick, reason being that i obviously value your picks (% wise and preference wise) 

please tell me who in the world is going to make a clutch shot for atlanta (and consistently if need be)...??? 

And ps.. Denver is now at -1, which is what i capped it at yesterday, despite a large % of the public on spurs.