Day games
Duke has to be concerned after losing first ACC tourney game last week to Maryland, only second time in last 11 years they lost first ACC tourney game- they went 8-8 in ACC the other year (’07) and got upset by VCU 79-77 (-7) in a 6-11 first round game, but their concern would be with Saturday’s game, not this one- Albany finished 5th in America East, the #22 league this season. Great Danes lost by 22 at Ohio State, won at Washington, and otherwise played a dismal schedule (#315 non-league/#295 overall), getting lucky they had two home games in league tourney, where they upset top seed Stony Brook after losing to them by 16-5 during season. Blue Devils lost as 2-seed to Lehigh LY; they’re 4-6 vs spread in first round games last 10 years. Over last six years, #2 seeds are 13-11 vs spread in this round. Duke beat Binghamton of America East 86-62 (-22) in this round in ’09.
Wisconsin won its last six first round games; since 2002, they’re 6-2-1 vs spread as a first round favorite. Badgers split pair of games with SEC teams this year, losing 74-56 at Florida Nov 14, then beating Arkansas 77-70 on neutral floor 10 days later- their March 3 home loss to Purdue was only one of their 11 losses that wasn’t to top 30 team. Ole Miss won last five games after a 4-6 skid had them headed to NIT; they came back from down double digits twice in SEC tourney behind two sturdy senior big men and fiery guard Henderson, who has big mouth and the game to back it up. Ole Miss is #7 in country at protecting ball- they played #333 non-league schedule, and have otherwise ordinary resume. Over last 5+ years, underdogs are 12-8 vs spread in 5-12 games, but hard to buck tourney-tested Badgers with Ole Miss squad not used to being here. both teams played Sunday, so quick turnaround not an issue.
Temple is 1-4 in last five first round games; they're 0-3 as underdog in tourney under Dunphy; Owls have senior guard Wyatt who will take a ton of shots- they go how he goes. NC State holds opponents to 29.9% from behind arc (#19 in country); since 1989, they're 7-1 in first round, winning last four by 12-6-9-14 points. Underdogs are 20-6 vs spread in 8-9 games last 6+ years. Wolfpack was overrated in fall, then ripped as disappointment by media that overrated them; State is 20-2 this season vs teams ranked outside top 50. Temple won seven of last eight games overall- they lost to Duke by 23, in only game vs ACC foe. Owls take a lot of 3's; Wyatt/Randall combined to shoot 32% from arc on 403 tries, not very good. State beat UMass by 18, St Bonaventure by 19 in its two games vs A-16 teams this season.
Pacific won Big West title as #2 seed last week, giving retiring Thomason going away present, as he retires after 25 years coaching his alma mater. Tigers are in NCAAs for first time since '06; they won last seven games overall, are 1-3 vs top 60 teams, losing by 20-18-28 points, with upset of St Mary's Nov 23. Big West teams are 0-7 in first round last seven years (2-5 vs spread), with five losses by 12+ points; Pacific was last Big West team to win in tourney, beating Providence in 8-9 game in '05. Miami won ACC title for first time last week, after going 2-3 in last five regular season games; they figure to have letdown here, looking ahead to facing Illinois-Colorado winner Sunday. Three of Miami's six losses are against teams ranked outside top 100; sometimes they play to level of opponent, then pull game out late. Both sides are top 10 in experience.
Creighton makes 42.1% (#1) behind arc, 56.4% (#2) inside arc, one of best offensive teams in country; Bluejays' 58-57 first round win (+1.5) over Alabama LY was their first in tournament since '02. Creighton split six games vs top 50 teams; they started year 17-1, won last five games, but went 5-6 in ugly stretch in between. Over last four years, underdogs are 13-3 vs spread in 7-10 games. Cincinnati is 2-0 in first round games under Cronin; favorites are 4-1 vs spread in his tourney games. Bearcats started season 12-0, beating Oregon/Iowa State/Xavier on neutral floors, but stumbled to 4-7 finish- they scored 55 or less points in seven of last eight losses. Cincy is strong defensive team, with #9 eFG% in country; they hold teams to 30% from arc, block 16% of opponents' shots, so is fascinating to see whether Creighton can get McDermott going inside.
LaSalle won first tourney game since 1990 Wednesday, making 11-21 on arc for an eFG% of 74.5%; they use four guards, spread court, expect its guards to make plays. Explorers are 2-2 vs top 50 teams; Villanova and VCU are best two they had beaten before Boise State win. Over last six years, #4 seeds are 14-10 vs spread in this round. Kansas State is 20-5 in its last 25 games, but they were 0-3 vs Kansas, 20-2 vs everyone else in that stretch; Weber took Frank Martin's players and ran with it- they won 65-62 at George Washington, their only game vs 1-16 foe. LaSalle scored 54-58 points in last two games, had to be thrilled just to get into play-in game, now they've got chance to duplicate VCU's run of couple years ago. Kansas City site has to favor K-State, which plays conference tourney here; Wildcats are 11-2 out of conference, with neutral court win over Florida, losses to Florida and Michigan.
James Madison is ranked lower than every team in Big Dozen, Penn St. included; Indiana is 8-0 vs teams ranked outside top 170, with all eight wins by 31+ points. JMU got off to 1-5 start this year, losing to UCLA by 30, North Dakota State by 22, but they've now won five games in a row but played 26 games in a row vs teams ranked outside top 140. #3 Indiana split its last six games, losing to Wisconsin for 12th straight time in Big Dozen tourney- worst team Hoosiers lost to this season is #53 Butler, a local rival. Over last 5+ years, #1 seeds are 14-8 vs spread in first round games. JMU scored lot in transition vs a lousy LIU defense, won't have that luxury against Hoosiers, whose 44.0 eFG% is #18 in country. Indiana was in tourney LY for first time in five years; they won last two first round games by 13 points each.
Illinois got off to 12-0 start, with 94-64 win over USC its only game vs Pac-12 opponent; they lost 8 of 11 after that, then won five in row, but finished on 2-4 skid. Illini is 10-1 in last 11 first round games, under few coaches, with only loss as 5-seed vs Western Kentucky in '09. Over last four years, underdogs are 13-3 vs spread in 7-10 games. Young Colorado has only one senior in rotation (#311 in experience); they've won four of last six road/neutral games, are 7-4 vs top 50 teams. Buffaloes won first round game LY, upsetting UNLV; they hold teams to 32.3% behind arc, in top-third in country. Illini gets 33.6% of its points behind arc, only make 32.3% of 3's, which is why they've had droughts this year. Buffs played #55 non-league schedule, Illinois #139.