Tonight's Recap (until the last game of the night)
ATL -7.5 -- Correlation 91.55% (63.5% probability rating)
ATL/CLE UNDER 228 -- Correlation 81.23% (81.25% probability rating)
NYK +4.5 -- Correlation 87.57% (60.4% probability rating)
SAC +5.5 -- Correlation 95.34% (76.19% probability rating)
SAC/BKN UNDER 241 -- Correlation 84.14% (85.7% probability rating)
MIN +10 -- Correlation 90.36% (62.5% probability rating)
MIN/MIL UNDER 231.5 -- Correlation 71.97% (64.7% probability rating)
Tonight's Recap (until the last game of the night)
ATL -7.5 -- Correlation 91.55% (63.5% probability rating) 
ATL/CLE UNDER 228 -- Correlation 81.23% (81.25% probability rating) 
NYK +4.5 -- Correlation 87.57% (60.4% probability rating)
SAC +5.5 -- Correlation 95.34% (76.19% probability rating)
SAC/BKN UNDER 241 -- Correlation 84.14% (85.7% probability rating)
MIN +10 -- Correlation 90.36% (62.5% probability rating)
MIN/MIL UNDER 231.5 -- Correlation 71.97% (64.7% probability rating)
Tonight's Recap (until the last game of the night)
ATL -7.5 -- Correlation 91.55% (63.5% probability rating)
ATL/CLE UNDER 228 -- Correlation 81.23% (81.25% probability rating)
NYK +4.5 -- Correlation 87.57% (60.4% probability rating)
SAC +5.5 -- Correlation 95.34% (76.19% probability rating)
SAC/BKN UNDER 241 -- Correlation 84.14% (85.7% probability rating)
MIN +10 -- Correlation 90.36% (62.5% probability rating)
MIN/MIL UNDER 231.5 -- Correlation 71.97% (64.7% probability rating)
Tonight's Recap
ATL -7.5 -- Correlation 91.55% (63.5% probability rating)
ATL/CLE UNDER 228 -- Correlation 81.23% (81.25% probability rating)
NYK +4.5 -- Correlation 87.57% (60.4% probability rating)
SAC +5.5 -- Correlation 95.34% (76.19% probability rating)
SAC/BKN UNDER 241 -- Correlation 84.14% (85.7% probability rating)
MIN +10 -- Correlation 90.36% (62.5% probability rating)
MIN/MIL UNDER 231.5 -- Correlation 71.97% (64.7% probability rating)
DEN -6 -- Correlation 88.24% (61.1% probability rating)
WAS +12 -- Correlation 89.14% (62.5% probability rating)
WAS/LAC UNDER 235.5 -- Correlation 74.64% (68.4% probability rating)
Ok... this is a little bit of insight into what I was doing and what I plan to do differently.
My study was based on how moneyline odds moved throughout the day. I capture the odds movement and create a intraday history, kind of like a stock. (In my previous life, I was an investment strategist / portfolio manager based on technical correlations between stocks and commodities)
With this data, I incorporate the result of each game.
For each day's event, I take the odds movement, compare it to all of the previous lines, and calculate a correlation coefficient. The results of the top 10 highest correlating past lines are used in calculating a probability metric.
Now, the problem with this method is that Moneyline movement is very different from ATS movement. I always thought that ATS line movement didn't have enough data. However, as I looked into this further, I noticed something very interesting. Odds multiplied by points can be used instead of just points, or just odds. So, this is what I am using now.
Last night was a runaway failure, but with failure, opportunities are presented. Instead of quitting, I'm going to work harder and get this shit right. I am running simulations right now to capture the best threshold correlation percentage, but once that's completed... we'll try this shit again. I promise, it'll be much much better.
@Froggy80
Bol bro - but I feel like you have an excuse or a new insight after every bad beat. I personally don't follow your picks but there are people who tail your picks with real money. Hope you figure it out n yes I know you're not forcing anybody to tail your picks but maybe comeback to when you have better prep. Bol hope you smash it soon!!
Established in 1995,
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