Friday 1/22 - Picks & Syndicate Report

852) Orlando Magic -3

*Sharps been taking stabs at this for most of the day. Line is now -5 and still yet to see any comeback on the Hornets. I originally believed the opening line was fairly accurate, and can't quite see the angle taken by some syndicate groups here, but I'm not going to argue with them. 

Public Ticket %:

Charlotte 60%

Orlando 40%

Overall $$ %:

Charlotte 35%

Orlando 65%

851) Charlotte Hornets o191

*Different syndicate groups have hit this in waves. Originally the first flood came in when the number was at 191 earlier this morning, and then a further flood of sharp money came in at 194 over the last hour or so pushing this line up to 195.5. Still no comeback on the under, but I think we could expect to see some if this budges and extra point by the public chasing the steam.

Overall Public %:

Over 80%

Under 20%

Overall $$ %:

Over 80%

Under 20%

853) Utah Jazz -4

*This is one of our officially released plays. Jazz opened as -4 and this situation is a great spot for this team. The public are pretty heavy on the Jazz but sharps are even heavier. We locked in -5.5 hoping to not get the worst of the number and this has now reached 6 across the board, and I believe this will test 6.5 or possibly 7 by tip off. I would put 6 as the limit here, so if you still want to get in on the action, this would be the final point.

Overall Public %:

Utah 70%

Brooklyn 30%

Overall $$ %:

Utah 90%

Brooklyn 10%

858) New York Knicks +2

*This has had smaller action, but lots of it. With the amount of $ and public bets on the Clippers, some very sharp players are keeping the number honest. Not sure which way this one will break, it really depends on if the books decide to take a position with the Knicks here (which it would seem they are doing). Always good to side with the oddsmakers and wiseguys. It's us against the public if you take this, and I know which side I will choose each and every time.

Current Public %:

LA Clippers 80%

NY Knicks 20%

Current $$ %:

LA Clippers 75%

NY Knicks 25%

862) Toronto Raptors -9

*Sharps flooded this number and steamed it hard. Mainly was due to the confirmation that the Heat would be without most of it's core. However, value has been sucked out and the public continue to chase. I would expect sharps to be done with this, but wouldn't be shocked to see some late value money come back on the dogs. Raptors have a tendency to play down (or up) to the opponent. Be smart, and don't lay the worst of the number here. Too much movement.

Current Public %:

Miami 30%

Toronto 70%

Current $$ %:

Miami 20%

Toronto 80%

865) Indian Pacers +13.5

*Sharps took a position on this once the public pushed it over 13. Honestly this line was inflated by oddsmakers from the get go and the public still came in hard on the Warriors. I personally took the same number and have a position on 13.5 but was no longer available when I came to post. This has since dropped back down to near the opening line of 12. I do not see much more happening here. Wiseguys got what they wanted, now it's just a case of seeing if the books adjust to the flood of Warriors money still hitting the window.

Current Public %:

Indiana 30%

Golden State 70%

Current $$ %:

Indiana 40%

Golden State 60%

Let me know if you guys have any questions!

thanks for your info

Syndicates are guys we keep a close watch on after a certain amount of time proving long term probability. Sometimes these guys would place wagers we didn't understand only to turn out we received injury news 5 minutes later, and somehow were a step ahead of what we were able to do as a book. These syndicates are much less common than popular belief. Everyone pretends to be a sharp these days... Realistically there is only a handful of groups across vegas, and each with a team of movers. I would say under 50 handicappers have the ability to seriously move the lines we offered and make us adjust our beliefs on a market.

Sharp groups been hitting this up and down most of the day. After analysing the source of these moves, I can confirm that by far, the sharper action is on the under. Public money helped the smaller sharp money make the over move seem heavy... This forced the books to adjust quickly. The smarter money has been waiting for a better number and took the under at 188. This line probably settles here, so we will side with what I believe to be the best investment decision.

Public Betting %:

Over 70%

Under 30%

Actual $$ %:

Over 75%

Under 25%

I would take the 186, but not lower.

Some days more than others. There are no stronger plays. I recommend playing all as 1u, they are as strong as each other. If they were stronger I would be raising unit size. All are +EV wagers, so there is no harm picking a few you personally like.

I appreciate the earlier answer. Another question though -- wouldn't this be contingent on handle size? There are (from my understanding) a fair few "freelance" (for lack of a better word) sharps if you will, and if 1 or 2 of them walked in and hit the same line at the same spot (especially on a less than popular game), would necessarily force the line to move? Or were you speaking very generally?

How do you determine the EV and particularly in these cases, how you determined that they are all +EV?  

I have a feeling you may be confusing Enterprise Value and Even Money lol.

Maybe so as I have no idea what those are (other than the literal meaning of Even Money).

When I see +EV, I'm thinking +Expected Value (poker wise).  So if it is positive expected value, I'm curious how he determined that in this instance.

Also waiting on DrJohn to answer also.