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Betting Against The Public (60% up) - UPDATED!

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Posted: #1
VEGAS IS RED HOT
currently @ 71.42% winning percentage.
YTD (6-21-0) since MARCH 20..

WEDNESDAY (03/20/13)    CONSENSUS
OKC@MEM          OKC-63% L
BOS@NOH           BOS-65% L
UTA@HOU            HOU-67% L
BKN@DAL            DAL-67% L
PHI@LAC              LAC-68% W
YTD (1-4-0)

THURSDAY (03/21/13)
POR@CHI              CHI-67% L
MIN@SAC             MIN-66% L
YTD (0-2-0)

FRIDAY (03/22/13)
OKC@ORL            OKC-66% L
MEM@NOH           MEM-67%
UTA@SAS              SAS-62% L
MIN@PHX             PHX-61% L
YTD (0-4-0)

SATURDAY (03/23/13)
TOR@NYK           NYK-65% W
IND+2@CHI         IND-64% L
BOS@MEM          BOS-60% W - MEM meltdown in the 4th qtr leading by 21 pts
SAC@DEN            DEN-60% L
YTD (2-2-0)

SUN (03/24/13)
SAS@HOU            SAS-62% L
BKN@PHX            BKN-62% L
PHI@SAC              SAC-64% L
UTA@DAL             DAL-63% L
CHI@MIN              CHI-64% W
YTD (1-4-0)

MONDAY (03/25/13)
MEM@WAS                 MEM-68% L
DEN@NOH                  DEN-66%  L
YTD (0-2-0)

WEDNESDAY (03/27/13)
ATL@TOR                   ATL-62% W
BOS@CLE                  BOS-62% L
MEM@NYK               NYK-62% L
LAL@MIN                  LAL-60% L
YTD (2-2-0)

THURSDAY (03/27/13)
LAL@MIL                  LAL-62% L
YTD (0-1-0)

FRIDAY (03/28/13)
OKC@MIN                OKC-70% L
ATL@BOS                BOS-60% W
BKN@DEN               DEN-64% W
MIA@NOH                MIA-62% W
LAC@SAS                SAS-62% L

YTD (3-2-0) AT LONG LAST

OVERALL YTD (9-23-0)

TONIGHT'S CARD:
OKC CURRENTLY @72%
MEM CURRENTLY @65%

BOL GUYS

 
Captain
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Posted: #2
Have you been betting against the public on all these picks? Informative thread. Thanks for posting daily.
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by Kaka123:

Have you been betting against the public on all these picks? Informative thread. Thanks for posting daily.


the other way around, lol..
since march 20 i started losing because of this F*cking Public Plays, i took a break on March 27 only to realize that it was too late..
glad i can help, it will also served as my reminder on how i lost big on public plays..
if this keeps on going, i will avoid betting on such plays..tonight card:

OKC - 73%
MEM - 65%

to be honest, im leaning on OKC & MEM
i don't think both of these will win ATS tonight,
so think i'll pick only one.

OKC just lost last night
MEM is back on the right track (Gasol back too)
but who knows

BOL
 
Prospect
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Posts: 127
Posted: #4
Mem. BOL :) they got this.
 
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Posted: #5

oh God everyone was burned last night. I had OKC-8 and my bank roll went down the drain again. the other night it was MIA vs CHI that got me killed. How could it happen with Noah missing for CHI? UGHHH

except teams that are still uncertain to make the play-off and teams that are uncertain about gauranteed seeds, seed secured teams will start to play loose :/

I will just wait until the play-off begins :/

 
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Posted: #6
very informative thread bro 
 
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Posted: #7
i'm bothered and puzzled with the odd line movement for MEM & OKC tonight.
public is pounding OKC, line was out six hours ago yet the line remians @ -5.5.
same goes for MEM but i'm more troubled with this, line opens @ -4.5, then public goes for MEM as usual, but six hrs later, line moves down to -4, reverse line movement, worse nothings change with the line ups and both played B2B and coming off a win..

can you enlighten me with this, anybody?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
Vegas is doing its thang lol
 
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Posted: #9
BATANAG

First of all this is great information. great track of Vegas.

BUT

If you forever bet against the puclic and\or on RLM, you'll lose in the long run pretty much the same you'll lose if you play the public every time, or don't play RLM.

If capping was that easy, we would all be rich. Looking at RLM and public % is great, but sure not enough.

I'm not saying there's no chance that both hit or miss, just saying that you can't take EVERY RLM you see. You'll get burned. 


You must look into the little stuff.

There was a time 2 months ago, when every thursday on TNT the public won. One might think - oh it's TNT so much money and the public will lose, Vegas might add RLM without you knowing that the sharp and big money is on the fav and boom! You lose. So, let's say today luck turns around and Vegas "lets" the public win to even things. You can't know when it'll come.


Just saying that don't be scared to make a play, or just don't make one. Do it only if you're sure and preferably not on those disgusting OKC team. Last night i looked at their line, same as last game of them, and said "yachs. not touching them. but i think they win." and what do you know... They lost, and i'm an OKC painless free for almost one week. DONT play that team. They're really over valued. They got Durant and no team B-ball.


GOOD LUCK mate.

Keep brining those informative threads.
 
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Posted: #10
I don't believe any of the percentages are that accurate anyways!!! I think both OKC and Memphis cover tonight!! Both are gearing up for the Playoffs while Milwaukee is probably stuck in the 8th seed no matter what!!
 
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Posted: #11
I believe there are times to fade the public.  The major flaw in your theory about facing the public on a daily basis is that you are considering 60% on one side as a "public" play when it's really far from it.  You are not considering the amount of money in play for each side nor are you considering the fact that covers is only an extremely small fraction of the large consensus.  60/40 on a play would be considered the norm for most games.  When it gets to 70% I would consider one side possibly being favored more by bettors, but then again that is even discretionary because you really don't know the size sample being used.  I use this theory but specifically look for "bloodbaths" where everyone seems to be on one side, considering it easy money, and overlooking a huge factor or two for the opponent.  GL with your theory.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by BatangTae:

VEGAS IS RED HOT
currently @ 71.42% winning percentage.
YTD (6-21-0) since MARCH 20..

WEDNESDAY (03/20/13)    CONSENSUS
OKC@MEM          OKC-63% L
BOS@NOH           BOS-65% L
UTA@HOU            HOU-67% L
BKN@DAL            DAL-67% L
PHI@LAC              LAC-68% W
YTD (1-4-0)

THURSDAY (03/21/13)
POR@CHI              CHI-67% L
MIN@SAC             MIN-66% L
YTD (0-2-0)

FRIDAY (03/22/13)
OKC@ORL            OKC-66% L
MEM@NOH           MEM-67%
UTA@SAS              SAS-62% L
MIN@PHX             PHX-61% L
YTD (0-4-0)

SATURDAY (03/23/13)
TOR@NYK           NYK-65% W
IND+2@CHI         IND-64% L
BOS@MEM          BOS-60% W - MEM meltdown in the 4th qtr leading by 21 pts
SAC@DEN            DEN-60% L
YTD (2-2-0)

SUN (03/24/13)
SAS@HOU            SAS-62% L
BKN@PHX            BKN-62% L
PHI@SAC              SAC-64% L
UTA@DAL             DAL-63% L
CHI@MIN              CHI-64% W
YTD (1-4-0)

MONDAY (03/25/13)
MEM@WAS                 MEM-68% L
DEN@NOH                  DEN-66%  L
YTD (0-2-0)

WEDNESDAY (03/27/13)
ATL@TOR                   ATL-62% W
BOS@CLE                  BOS-62% L
MEM@NYK               NYK-62% L
LAL@MIN                  LAL-60% L
YTD (2-2-0)

THURSDAY (03/27/13)
LAL@MIL                  LAL-62% L
YTD (0-1-0)

FRIDAY (03/28/13)
OKC@MIN                OKC-70% L
ATL@BOS                BOS-60% W
BKN@DEN               DEN-64% W
MIA@NOH                MIA-62% W
LAC@SAS                SAS-62% L

YTD (3-2-0) AT LONG LAST

OVERALL YTD (9-23-0)

TONIGHT'S CARD:
OKC CURRENTLY @72%
MEM CURRENTLY @65%

BOL GUYS

As I told you on the other thread, OKC/MEM game, Public have won. That game Mem -1.5 and won by 1, did not cover. OKC lost and covered, public won. Keep in mind this, if you go with this theory, you just bet on BAD team like Detroit, Toronto, Orlando, Charlote etc... Public never bet on BAD team.

 
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Posted: #13
milkky24
dimndimn
macky

RESPECT
In case others don't know, this just an INFORMATIVE THREAD, definitely not a method to rely on ,that is just plain stupidity. like what i've said i got burned since this VEGAS STREAK started on march 20, i never track any of these before that..reason for tracking now is simply because VEGAS is on fire and YTD 6-21 got my respect..i'm not betting against the public, i'm just trying to figure out when to and not to pull the trigger on Public plays. I know right now is a bad time but i still pulled the trigger on OKC &  MEM.

BOL
 
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Posted: #14
Where do I go to get those percentages?  Thanks
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by BigRomes916:

Where do I go to get those percentages?  Thanks


i used covers.com, i know its nothing compared to the actual betting around the world, no idea where to get it anyway. but it doesn't matter, same team (better team) are always picked by public more often than not, i do checked other sportsbook and have the same result most of the time..
 
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Posted: #16
MEM
OKC

STREAK IS NOW BROKEN

 
 
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Posted: #17
 It never work, sometime it hit, sometime it does not
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