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#1
This is an interesting game to cap, because every game has been a blow out, won by the home team. This makes the decision on who to back, as well as the result, rather obvious. But before we put our hard earned money on this game, we need to understand why the Thunder are the obvious play here. As we saw previously, news of the Spurs demise was greatly exaggerated. Pop had his men ready and they answered the call in every conceivable way. But in order to do that the Spurs had to expend a lot of energy, especially for an older team. Now the Spurs go into OKC hoping to steal one. In order for them to steal this game (cause the Thunder won’t give it to them) they will have to play with the same force, passion, energy and precision that won them game 5. And they’ll have to play at least that hard because the Thunder will not quit in this game, as they did at the end of the 3rd quarter in game 5. After all, this game is the Thunder’s season, or their last chance to save their season. So regardless of if they are winning by 10 or losing by 10, they will keep coming. Additionally, the Spurs will have to battle the officials in this one and they certainly won’t get the 30 or so free throws that they got in game 5. That will make winning that much tougher. Meanwhile, the Thunder will get to the line, unlike game 5. According to ESPN stats, Westbrook only attacked the rim 4 times in game 5, which is his lowest number thus far in the playoffs. Why? Perhaps he was a bit tired (from game 4) or perhaps he realized that the Thunder were not gonna get the calls that night and decided to conserve his energy. Regardless, you can expect to see a lot more attacks to the rim by the Thunder, and a lot more free throws. So, besides the Thunder giving it their all (in a desperate elimination game), the refs will also be giving it their all. A game 7, between the last two teams to face the Heat in the finals, would be a ratings boon. It’s also important to note that through five games of the NBA Finals (last year), the games were averaging just 15.1 million viewers per game, down 10.7% from the previous year when the Heat faced the Thunder. So if the league had its way, they’d prefer to see Thunder vs. Heat.
But perhaps the biggest reason to back the Thunder is that the Spurs are not backable in this situation. Pop’s stratagems and machinations are more complex than Tywin Lannister’s. For all we know he made sure the Spurs would lose in game 4 (when game 4 was not completely lost) to all but guarantee a win in game 5. And now we expect the Spurs to go all out for win (just two day after a monster effort) and then (if they lose, which is likely) go all out again two days later? Can Spurs’ backers seriously back a team and a coach that are less interested in winning a game than the series? If the Spurs fall behind by double digits, how long do you think Pop will keep his starters in? Isn’t it likely that he will deploy the same strategy that worked so well before? In other words, won’t he use his deep bench (his one great advantage in this series) to wear out the Thunder and give his team a better chance to win game 7?
Last but not least, the Thunder still have claws. They are a ferocious and wildly talented team that will use every bit of its strength and athleticism to push the Spurs around in this elimination game. And let’s face it, the Thunder would not have brought Ibaka back from “a season ending injury” if they didn’t think they had a chance at the title. They did not match the Spurs’ defensive energies in game 5 but they’ll bring it in game 6. This blood bath of a series, where each team has slaughtered the other, was meant to go 7, and it will. Expect the pattern to continue in this one. Game 7, however, will be difficult to predict, which is why this is the game to bet on.
The Play: Thunder -3.5
As a footnote: I would make this a GOY (or at least the game of the playoffs), but the Thunder are such a low IQ team that I just can't. As a result , I'm only betting half of what I normally would in such a case.
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