This will be a toss up but wondering what you all think. rourke was terrific in the wrestler but penn was great as well. do you think hollywood and the voters like penn better and will win cuz of his far left wing views on the world?
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This will be a toss up but wondering what you all think. rourke was terrific in the wrestler but penn was great as well. do you think hollywood and the voters like penn better and will win cuz of his far left wing views on the world?
Charlie Rose had a couple film critics on his show last week and they both thought Penn had a much better chance of winning than Mickey Rourke.
The academy won't give Milk the best picture award so they'll have to give Penn best actor in order to pat themselves on the back for being such enlightened supporters of gay rights.
Charlie Rose had a couple film critics on his show last week and they both thought Penn had a much better chance of winning than Mickey Rourke.
The academy won't give Milk the best picture award so they'll have to give Penn best actor in order to pat themselves on the back for being such enlightened supporters of gay rights.
i think rourke will suffer a bit like eddie murphy did a couple of years back, has he done enough oscar worthy work to motivate enough people to vote for him? sure, his comeback is a good story, but penn and langella may offer better value.
i think rourke will suffer a bit like eddie murphy did a couple of years back, has he done enough oscar worthy work to motivate enough people to vote for him? sure, his comeback is a good story, but penn and langella may offer better value.
personally i loved rourke in the wrestler and it would be entertaining to see wtf comes out of his mouth in his speech but i am a degenerate and think penn wins so i betting penn big at +140.
personally i loved rourke in the wrestler and it would be entertaining to see wtf comes out of his mouth in his speech but i am a degenerate and think penn wins so i betting penn big at +140.
u know i really hope rourke wins....i hate how penn get so much hoopola for everything hes in. i get it, hes a good actor, but theres something about him i just dont like. plus, this would just confirm the hollywood theory: go gay or retard and get an oscar.
i loved the wrester and think rourke was brilliant. really pullin for him
u know i really hope rourke wins....i hate how penn get so much hoopola for everything hes in. i get it, hes a good actor, but theres something about him i just dont like. plus, this would just confirm the hollywood theory: go gay or retard and get an oscar.
i loved the wrester and think rourke was brilliant. really pullin for him
Charlie Rose had a couple film critics on his show last week and they both thought Penn had a much better chance of winning than Mickey Rourke.
The academy won't give Milk the best picture award so they'll have to give Penn best actor in order to pat themselves on the back for being such enlightened supporters of gay rights.
Sorry to sidetrack topic but...
The perception is Hollywood is pro-gay but w/ the loss of Brokeback Mountain 3 yrs, I don't think it's that pro at all. The reason it lost was some members will not vote for it, some went as far as making it public, ie. Ernest Borgnine, yet no one take them to task for it.
There was not a bigger upset in Best Pic since don't know when. It won every big awards going in save for SAG. It was beloved by the public, had word-of-mouth, made tons of money, a water-cooler discussed movie, directed by a well-liked/respected dir, yet it still lost bc it was a gay movie. This was probably my biggest "moose" loss for me, a $6K swing.
Quote Originally Posted by bird_fidrych:
Charlie Rose had a couple film critics on his show last week and they both thought Penn had a much better chance of winning than Mickey Rourke.
The academy won't give Milk the best picture award so they'll have to give Penn best actor in order to pat themselves on the back for being such enlightened supporters of gay rights.
Sorry to sidetrack topic but...
The perception is Hollywood is pro-gay but w/ the loss of Brokeback Mountain 3 yrs, I don't think it's that pro at all. The reason it lost was some members will not vote for it, some went as far as making it public, ie. Ernest Borgnine, yet no one take them to task for it.
There was not a bigger upset in Best Pic since don't know when. It won every big awards going in save for SAG. It was beloved by the public, had word-of-mouth, made tons of money, a water-cooler discussed movie, directed by a well-liked/respected dir, yet it still lost bc it was a gay movie. This was probably my biggest "moose" loss for me, a $6K swing.
I think Penn gets it. Rourke might go to Wrestle Mania and the pretentious snobs will try to find a reason to not vote for him including not enough Oscar-worthy material done.
Yeah, good point Gmitran BUT
I think Penn gets it. Rourke might go to Wrestle Mania and the pretentious snobs will try to find a reason to not vote for him including not enough Oscar-worthy material done.
So I am the only one on Rourke here? Would not have thought that with him being the favorite. Locked in for a few hundred at -125 and -135.
In just feel like he has dug deep for this one and shown the world something new. Penn is always awesome but it is not like his perfrmance brought anything new to the table like Rourke's did.
Good point about the Academy making these more into lifetime acheivement awards but IMHO that is only for people that have not won yet, more specifically people who have been overlooked in the past, like Scorcese and Michael Caine in recent years. Penn took home this very same award a few years ago so there is no way voters are going to feel like they need to "make it up to him" by voting for him over what they feel is a stronger performance...
And to me that is what it is going to come down to. I think politics will not decide this one. I think they will give it to the better performance (this all being 100% subjective), and from what I have seen that is Rourke.
So I am the only one on Rourke here? Would not have thought that with him being the favorite. Locked in for a few hundred at -125 and -135.
In just feel like he has dug deep for this one and shown the world something new. Penn is always awesome but it is not like his perfrmance brought anything new to the table like Rourke's did.
Good point about the Academy making these more into lifetime acheivement awards but IMHO that is only for people that have not won yet, more specifically people who have been overlooked in the past, like Scorcese and Michael Caine in recent years. Penn took home this very same award a few years ago so there is no way voters are going to feel like they need to "make it up to him" by voting for him over what they feel is a stronger performance...
And to me that is what it is going to come down to. I think politics will not decide this one. I think they will give it to the better performance (this all being 100% subjective), and from what I have seen that is Rourke.
Ziggy... Rourke had publicly backed off (or should I say his publicist) from saying he will be part of WM (not that he won't as that's way after Oscar) as he know it's absolute Oscar-suicide if everyone know he's serious about participating in it. I was hoping he would keep pushing this WM publicly as it will kill his chances of winning, the Academy do care about their image and no way will they vote for someone who will ridicule their profession, ask Eddie Murphy!!!
I thought Wrestler>Milk and MR>SP but undecided on who will win as of now.
Ziggy... Rourke had publicly backed off (or should I say his publicist) from saying he will be part of WM (not that he won't as that's way after Oscar) as he know it's absolute Oscar-suicide if everyone know he's serious about participating in it. I was hoping he would keep pushing this WM publicly as it will kill his chances of winning, the Academy do care about their image and no way will they vote for someone who will ridicule their profession, ask Eddie Murphy!!!
I thought Wrestler>Milk and MR>SP but undecided on who will win as of now.
i think rourke will suffer a bit like eddie murphy did a couple of years back, has he done enough oscar worthy work to motivate enough people to vote for him? sure, his comeback is a good story, but penn and langella may offer better value.
Knowing that comedy roles almost never win these type of awards... when has Eddie Murphy ever done anything even remotely Oscar worthy?
I just do not understand the comparison at all.
And to me this is not really a comeback for Rourke. A comeback to what he was before would have him doing a bunch of action flicks. What he has done here is much deeper, more of a revelation than a comeback.
Quote Originally Posted by 3825:
i think rourke will suffer a bit like eddie murphy did a couple of years back, has he done enough oscar worthy work to motivate enough people to vote for him? sure, his comeback is a good story, but penn and langella may offer better value.
Knowing that comedy roles almost never win these type of awards... when has Eddie Murphy ever done anything even remotely Oscar worthy?
I just do not understand the comparison at all.
And to me this is not really a comeback for Rourke. A comeback to what he was before would have him doing a bunch of action flicks. What he has done here is much deeper, more of a revelation than a comeback.
I just want to add that I think the real value lies with Rourke on this one. Think about it: almost every other favorite has far, far more juice than him for best actor. Yet his performance relative to the other heavy favorites seems even more impressive. I would argue his performance shines brighter than Penn's.
The only reason the juice is this low on what seems like close to a sure thing is because of the exact sentiment carried by many in this thread, that Hollywood is in love with Penn to the point where voters will vote for him without giving the other performances the same chance to win them over that they normally might.
I disagree with this notion and thus to me this pick stood out as the only good value on the board, except for possibly Jolie to win Best Actress at +1500 (come on, she was amazing).
I just want to add that I think the real value lies with Rourke on this one. Think about it: almost every other favorite has far, far more juice than him for best actor. Yet his performance relative to the other heavy favorites seems even more impressive. I would argue his performance shines brighter than Penn's.
The only reason the juice is this low on what seems like close to a sure thing is because of the exact sentiment carried by many in this thread, that Hollywood is in love with Penn to the point where voters will vote for him without giving the other performances the same chance to win them over that they normally might.
I disagree with this notion and thus to me this pick stood out as the only good value on the board, except for possibly Jolie to win Best Actress at +1500 (come on, she was amazing).
Wow. Just checked for fun and saw that at my book the odds have gone all the way up to Rourke -255! A 130 point swing... I really feel like I am on the right side on this one but we will see. Also reassuring that the other bets I made all increased in juice: Slumdog Millionaire from -400 to -1400 (!), same with Boyle for Best Director, Cruz from -200 to -240, Ledger from -3000 to -3300, and even my waste a few bucks for fun Jolie pick going from +1500 down to +1000.
These Oscar odds sure do take dramatic shifts. But for those of you who are still really feeling Penn to win a second Oscar this year, the value should be very high and in fact you should probably wait until the last possible moment because I think Rourke will be, if anything, even more favored by the time Sunday comes around.
I only took him because I saw value in him as a slight favorite. Now that he is a fairly heavy favorite the value is gone. Glad I hopped on early!
(This is my first year having "action" on the Oscars so as a filmmaker wannbe/degenerate that makes for an exciting dynamic to what would otherwise be a very boring night, cannot wait)
Wow. Just checked for fun and saw that at my book the odds have gone all the way up to Rourke -255! A 130 point swing... I really feel like I am on the right side on this one but we will see. Also reassuring that the other bets I made all increased in juice: Slumdog Millionaire from -400 to -1400 (!), same with Boyle for Best Director, Cruz from -200 to -240, Ledger from -3000 to -3300, and even my waste a few bucks for fun Jolie pick going from +1500 down to +1000.
These Oscar odds sure do take dramatic shifts. But for those of you who are still really feeling Penn to win a second Oscar this year, the value should be very high and in fact you should probably wait until the last possible moment because I think Rourke will be, if anything, even more favored by the time Sunday comes around.
I only took him because I saw value in him as a slight favorite. Now that he is a fairly heavy favorite the value is gone. Glad I hopped on early!
(This is my first year having "action" on the Oscars so as a filmmaker wannbe/degenerate that makes for an exciting dynamic to what would otherwise be a very boring night, cannot wait)
Burning Planet good luck. I hope Rourke wins and I hope you win that bet. I wish i got on mine early...I had to take Winslet at bad odds.....but when ur talking about Murphy you are misinformed
He was in Dreamgirls in a serious role and he was great...def deserved the Oscar but they screwed him over for it. Id kill for those -400 odds on Slumdog
Burning Planet good luck. I hope Rourke wins and I hope you win that bet. I wish i got on mine early...I had to take Winslet at bad odds.....but when ur talking about Murphy you are misinformed
He was in Dreamgirls in a serious role and he was great...def deserved the Oscar but they screwed him over for it. Id kill for those -400 odds on Slumdog
Unlike weak years, this acting category has some worthy nominees. So past performance should be less influential than recent performance. Rourke appears to have slight advantages in media hype and a tougher role.
Unlike weak years, this acting category has some worthy nominees. So past performance should be less influential than recent performance. Rourke appears to have slight advantages in media hype and a tougher role.
The weird thing is that Penn is still only at even money. With a -1000 favorite you would think Penn would be +money. Weird but it feels pretty amazing to have locked in on a bet at almost even money and watched the odds go all the way to ten-to-one. I got in early because I feared the lines would shift but never in my wildest dreams did I think they would shift like this!
Thinking I am about to make a little over 400 tonight on the Oscars of all things. Good luck to everyone.
Ah, do not know much about Dreamgirls. My bad.
Now Rourke is -1000!
The weird thing is that Penn is still only at even money. With a -1000 favorite you would think Penn would be +money. Weird but it feels pretty amazing to have locked in on a bet at almost even money and watched the odds go all the way to ten-to-one. I got in early because I feared the lines would shift but never in my wildest dreams did I think they would shift like this!
Thinking I am about to make a little over 400 tonight on the Oscars of all things. Good luck to everyone.
Congrats to Penn backers. You guys were all right and I was way the fuck off on this one. I'll earn it back. I think even Penn was a bit suprised, and mentioning Rourke, who I am damn sure will not get this close to the statue again in his life, was very classy.
"There will be suprises," they said in the commercials. Maybe I should have taken that as an omen!
Congrats to Penn backers. You guys were all right and I was way the fuck off on this one. I'll earn it back. I think even Penn was a bit suprised, and mentioning Rourke, who I am damn sure will not get this close to the statue again in his life, was very classy.
"There will be suprises," they said in the commercials. Maybe I should have taken that as an omen!
The weird thing is that Penn is still only at even money. With a -1000 favorite you would think Penn would be +money. Weird but it feels pretty amazing to have locked in on a bet at almost even money and watched the odds go all the way to ten-to-one. I got in early because I feared the lines would shift but never in my wildest dreams did I think they would shift like this!
Thinking I am about to make a little over 400 tonight on the Oscars of all things. Good luck to everyone.
Quote Originally Posted by BurningPlanet26:
Ah, do not know much about Dreamgirls. My bad.
Now Rourke is -1000!
The weird thing is that Penn is still only at even money. With a -1000 favorite you would think Penn would be +money. Weird but it feels pretty amazing to have locked in on a bet at almost even money and watched the odds go all the way to ten-to-one. I got in early because I feared the lines would shift but never in my wildest dreams did I think they would shift like this!
Thinking I am about to make a little over 400 tonight on the Oscars of all things. Good luck to everyone.
mentioning Rourke, who I am damn sure will not get this close to the statue again in his life, was very classy.
"There will be suprises," they said in the commercials. Maybe I should have taken that as an omen!
Penn may not get great publicity but he's well-respected by his peers. When nominations came out, he told Rourke (his competitor) to tone down his personality if he wants a chance to win, he gave a small role to Rourke in his movie the Pledge when no one wants to touch him. They've been friends for long time so that was a sincere salute to Rourke. I made bet on Rourke but hedge it w/ Penn so broke even in this category. There's usually a surprise each yr and this is it.
Quote Originally Posted by BurningPlanet26:
mentioning Rourke, who I am damn sure will not get this close to the statue again in his life, was very classy.
"There will be suprises," they said in the commercials. Maybe I should have taken that as an omen!
Penn may not get great publicity but he's well-respected by his peers. When nominations came out, he told Rourke (his competitor) to tone down his personality if he wants a chance to win, he gave a small role to Rourke in his movie the Pledge when no one wants to touch him. They've been friends for long time so that was a sincere salute to Rourke. I made bet on Rourke but hedge it w/ Penn so broke even in this category. There's usually a surprise each yr and this is it.
Penn winning is a makeup win for academy who snubbed broke back a few years ago. They don't want to go against the same theme again and be acused of being too conservative.
Penn winning is a makeup win for academy who snubbed broke back a few years ago. They don't want to go against the same theme again and be acused of being too conservative.
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