Posted:
#1
Recap:
Guthrie (KC) +115 @ Floyd (CHW) = WIN
Wood (CHC) +130 @ McDonald (PIT) = WIN
Dempster (BOS) @ Pettitte (NYY) -116 = WIN
Record:
4-0 (+4.40)
Nice start on posted plays.
Adding one to start, will likely add later:
McAllister (CLE) +156 @ Moore (TB)
The bottom line here is that there's value on Cleveland IMO.
Two good young pitchers who essentially went through their rookie seasons last year. Each pitcher trended in a different direction in the second half, with Moore really improving and McAllister looking gassed:
First Half/Second Half FIPs:
Moore: 4.46/3.25
McAllister: 3.09/4.43
As a result, Moore is a hot young pitcher on the upswing, but McAllister is an afterthought. But taking a closer look at McAllister, as the season went on, although his average velocity was more or less constant, his velocity variation increased, suggesting he had a hard time maintaining pitch velocity over the course of the season. Perhaps his poor second half numbers were more a conditioning problem than the league catching up to him. Either way he seems to be worth a flyer at this price at the beginning of the season. It's also worth noting McAllister control has looked good this spring 12/5 SO/BB when compared to Moore 20/14. Finally, the Indians offense? Not that bad, especially when compared with TB.
BOL out there.
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