WS Game 1 - Giants and why

It's been a sweet ride with the giants the last several games and i believe it will continue tomorrow night.  Let's look at some numbers:

144 Detroit Verlander    2

       Giants  Zito           54

Det. opens up as a 144 favorite.   The numerical rating I have for verlander is 2 and for zito 54 (lower the better). Clearly verlander is better. In addition, verlander has more strikeouts than innings pitched - a great sign of a good to great pitcher.  However, when looking at the line 144 matched up to these numerical ratings - many of my data points - show the home team winning in this situation - thus i'm on the giants for game 1.

Another thing to be aware of - when dominant pitchers face teams they are not use to facing - often they struggle - this could be the case for zito as well  - either way i'm on the giants.  Good luck all.

 

BOL 

Just wondering in your stats if it included a 98 to 100 mph fastball by Verlander that moves 2 to 3 feet right to left or left to right as it crosses the plate.  Just wondering.

I simply agree....and the days off wont help them Tigers ....like i comment we just have to match zeros or 1 to 1 game ....the Tigers bull pen is not that great....and we faced Cabrera and Fielder in the nl before....we know how to pitch to them.....mark my words Giants win the Wolrd Series....

Wow listen to this guy! 

This is capping? lol

Looking to win - that's the beauty of the system - it does take into consideration the fact that verlander is a strikeout pitcher - the formula is (power rank of the pitcher + (MOB - Sagarins Ricky #).  The ricky number is essentially the strikeouts a pitcher has.  Compare the numerical against the line - if verlander was so dominant that there wasn't any chance for the giants - this line would not be 144.  Looking at my numbers - if the opening line was higher - data indicated go with verlander - I would be on Detroit but it's 144 and i'm on the giants.   Odds makers are smart - the line they put on a game indicates many variables - so their is a reason it's 144 vice 185.

I hear ya.  Its just that its baseball man look at the broken bat last night and the ball hit the bat three times before it left.  Man you can have all the stats you want but................WTF shortstop takes off on contact to field first time it hit the bat to his right were it should have gone hits the bat again and straighens out and then again and sends it into left center field instead of left field by short were it was going.  Stats.  I think a lot of cappers would do a hell of a lot better if they just think the game through.  Is the layoff going to hurt the Tigers who's ptiching are the Giants going to be a little worn down from the ALDS.  I don't know if that is what you are telling me all the stats do then go with it.  I like my chances with what i would say is the best pitcher right now in MLB bar none.

Following up to ihavenopatience's post, my book has DET @ -170.  Do you base your stats on just opening lines?  What about progressive increases (i.e.  DET opened @ 144, now 170)?  Thnx in advance.

Don't know if you are old enough to remember Tiger pitcher Jack Morris but if you are you are going to see more of the same tomorrow night.  Just a proud Tiger fan with what i would say is the best pitcher in baseball right now.  Not sure if there is a San Fran pitcher that has a 0.82 combined ERA through the NLDS and the NLCS series but that would be Verlanders ERA through the two series.  Yeah thats something to brag about and the whole world will see the action tomorrow.  As for the JV..........the ass just another Covers poster talking tough through the computer you are probably some little box wimp but i guess we will never know.

Lets go giants!

Ihavenopatience - I only use the opening line to base the research on. what the public thinks has no bearing on who to go with.  I let the numbers decide based on the opening lines.

Skeptrix - just the opening line.

looking to win - funny thing is I travel a lot and I buy a hat and wear it until it gets old - currently I've been wearing a tigers hat:)

Either way it should be a good series.

JV's WS numbers are not so hot buddy, don't forget that. Rookie or no rookie. 

Verlander is throw back pitcher....not only is he dominant, he goes 9 innings....and he can amp it up when necessary....this is a low scoring game IMO, Tigers probably win....

For the record, I have 4 units on Verlander on the runline in game 1 (+1.07)...I don't see the Giants scoring much.....

I like Zito here, he hasn't lost a game since Aug 7.

Aug 2nd was the last game he lost to NYM.

Aug 7th is my birthday       I don't think Zito is Verlander's class.....JV may be the best MLB pitcher right now.....it will be interesting to see what Leyland does if JV has to bat in the 7th, or 8th....

Buddah-i know you only use opening lines i read all 4 parts in the strategy section you posted was just wondering how early you saw those lines at? Are you checking at your book? or just googling it? cause i thought i saw it early at -166

About the same as your Texas Rangres and Houston Rockets.  Anyways i didn't realize that the Pistons and Lions were playing in this World Series.  Shit you learn something new every day.  Anyways i am not a Pistons fan basketball is a box sport.  Try hockey were they are skating at 35 mph and try to put your head through the glass or the boards or football where i guy like Suh takes a guy like Cutler and trys to drive him in the ground half way to China like he did Monday night.  Now those are sports.

One last thing before i leave this thread for good.  I am like i said a long time Tigers fan probably 20 years longer than any of you have been born watched them win the 1967 and 1984 World Series and yes i am pretty excited about this series.  They may win it or lose it but i will tell you one thing i am going to CHIRP with anyone who knocks what they have done so far in the playoffs.  If you think Oakland and New York were nothing teams and it had nothing to do with our starting rotation and one pitcher with a 0.82 earn run average through two series well yes i am going to CHIRP with the number of years i have watched the Tigers i think i have earned my Chirping rights.  I will take all the chrips i expect it but i am not going to sit back and not strike back.  GL to all you SAN FRAN fans.

Hey lookingtowin: from your posts, you look like you are playing with your heart and not your head.  I'm wagering to win money, not pride or ego. I've seen many of your posts and I find myself leaning against the Tigers. Use logic in your posts to argue your points. Everyone is here to make that dollar and you are deterring everyone on the fence away from the Tigers for the wrong reasons.