Monday: 2-0, +2.06 Units Season: 37-28, +24.69 Units
Average Play: 1.65 Units (107U/65G)
ROI: 23% (return per unit invested)
Monday recap: White Sox, -106 (1U) Yankees, +106 (1U)
Hopefully yesterday was the start of another hot streak. I hit my plays and my lean (Blue Jays) and I feel really good about my AL knowledge and approach right now. The only bad part is that if I wasn't getting defensive I'd have won 5 units instead of 2. I'm going to stay defensive for one more day and keep each of my plays a unit smaller than usual.
Tuesday Plays:
Royals, +122 (1U)
Royals under 8.5, -105 (1U)
Athletics, -104 (1U)
I'm also going to take the Rangers TT under if the number is good (I'll post it when I get it). I have to find a way to take advantage of the under conditions in this game without involving Yu Darvish.
Monday: 2-0, +2.06 Units Season: 37-28, +24.69 Units
Average Play: 1.65 Units (107U/65G)
ROI: 23% (return per unit invested)
Monday recap: White Sox, -106 (1U) Yankees, +106 (1U)
Hopefully yesterday was the start of another hot streak. I hit my plays and my lean (Blue Jays) and I feel really good about my AL knowledge and approach right now. The only bad part is that if I wasn't getting defensive I'd have won 5 units instead of 2. I'm going to stay defensive for one more day and keep each of my plays a unit smaller than usual.
Tuesday Plays:
Royals, +122 (1U)
Royals under 8.5, -105 (1U)
Athletics, -104 (1U)
I'm also going to take the Rangers TT under if the number is good (I'll post it when I get it). I have to find a way to take advantage of the under conditions in this game without involving Yu Darvish.
I had Barrett umpiring, the wind expected to be blowing in from right, a Texas lineup without Beltre, and a Yankee lineup that wants to hit a lefty instead (especially with Gardner out forcing Chavez in). This would have helped my game under but obviously not the team total.
I'm passing on it because Beltre is now starting and the team total is only 4.5 even though Texas is favored in a game where the total is ten. I wanted 5 and some juice (and that was with no Beltre) or 5.5.
And for the record, I don't consider the ballpark an over factor. It's already factored in the line so it really doesn't mean anything unless it's being overrated/underrated or it matches a pitcher's specific style.
I had Barrett umpiring, the wind expected to be blowing in from right, a Texas lineup without Beltre, and a Yankee lineup that wants to hit a lefty instead (especially with Gardner out forcing Chavez in). This would have helped my game under but obviously not the team total.
I'm passing on it because Beltre is now starting and the team total is only 4.5 even though Texas is favored in a game where the total is ten. I wanted 5 and some juice (and that was with no Beltre) or 5.5.
And for the record, I don't consider the ballpark an over factor. It's already factored in the line so it really doesn't mean anything unless it's being overrated/underrated or it matches a pitcher's specific style.
The A's brought out a wierd line-up card tonight. The value is pretty thin there. I don't care about Suzuki/Recker at catcher but I wanted and expected Kila (lefty) and/or Coco (switch hitter) out there against Floyd. I still like them but what would have been a 2-unit play may just be worth 1-unit. Good luck all.
The A's brought out a wierd line-up card tonight. The value is pretty thin there. I don't care about Suzuki/Recker at catcher but I wanted and expected Kila (lefty) and/or Coco (switch hitter) out there against Floyd. I still like them but what would have been a 2-unit play may just be worth 1-unit. Good luck all.
No Smoak or Ryan for the M's tonight in-case anyone was counting on offense from them for any reason......the wind is flying out in Comerica at 21 mph though. I ignored Seattle and grabbed the Tigers TT over against Vargas, the extreme fly-baller who has pitched a bit over his head (his ERA is almost a run better than his xFIP*). Another reason not to mess with the Seattle hitting side was that Scherzer's been very unlucky in his starts so far (his ERA is 4.5 worse than his xFIP).
No Smoak or Ryan for the M's tonight in-case anyone was counting on offense from them for any reason......the wind is flying out in Comerica at 21 mph though. I ignored Seattle and grabbed the Tigers TT over against Vargas, the extreme fly-baller who has pitched a bit over his head (his ERA is almost a run better than his xFIP*). Another reason not to mess with the Seattle hitting side was that Scherzer's been very unlucky in his starts so far (his ERA is 4.5 worse than his xFIP).
Price's biggest advantage is that lefties can't touch him (0.465 OPSa last year against lefties vs. 0.647 OPSa against righties......0.8 difference in 2010). He's solid but unspectacular against righties. He won't see one lefty tonight against a versatile Angel's line-up so it's a good time to grab a very live dog. Ervin Santana has also been pretty unlucky so far while Price has deseved even worse of a beating than he's taken. I set this line a bit higher than where it is but I just feel like this is an under-adjustment or lack of adjustment to a good matchup for the Angels. Price does't deserve a premium Price until he earns it.
Price's biggest advantage is that lefties can't touch him (0.465 OPSa last year against lefties vs. 0.647 OPSa against righties......0.8 difference in 2010). He's solid but unspectacular against righties. He won't see one lefty tonight against a versatile Angel's line-up so it's a good time to grab a very live dog. Ervin Santana has also been pretty unlucky so far while Price has deseved even worse of a beating than he's taken. I set this line a bit higher than where it is but I just feel like this is an under-adjustment or lack of adjustment to a good matchup for the Angels. Price does't deserve a premium Price until he earns it.
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